Family building intentions in England and Wales: trends,outcomes and interpretations

This article presents and analyses women's childbearing intentions collected in the General Household Survey (GHS). Data from the 21 surveys from 1979 to 2001 show that over that period there has been a fall in women's intended numbers of births. However the latest data (from the 1998, 2000 and 2001 surveys) show that the average number of children intended is still around two, somewhat higher than the average number of children current fertility rates suggest women will have. The questions of whether this difference can be interpreted as possible unmet need for children, whether past intentions have been good predictors of fertility, and how current intentions may be used to inform projections assumptions are discussed. In relation to the last question, fertility intentions by ethnic group are also presented.     

The obscuration by dust of most of the growth of supermassive black holes

Supermassive black holes underwent periods of exponential growth during which we see them as quasars in the distant Universe. The summed emission from these quasars generates the cosmic X-ray background, the spectrum of which has been used to argue that most black-hole growth is obscured. There are clear examples of obscured black-hole growth in the form of 'type-2' quasars, but their numbers are fewer than expected from modelling of the X-ray background. Here we report the direct detection of a population of distant type-2 quasars, which is at least comparable in size to the well-known unobscured type-1 population. We selected objects that have mid-infrared and radio emissions characteristic of quasars, but which are faint at near-infrared and optical wavelengths. We conclude that this population is responsible for most of the black-hole growth in the young Universe and that, throughout cosmic history, black-hole growth occurs in the dusty, gas-rich centres of active galaxies.     

Evolutionary information for specifying a protein fold

Classical studies show that for many proteins, the information required for specifying the tertiary structure is contained in the amino acid sequence. Here, we attempt to define the sequence rules for specifying a protein fold by computationally creating artificial protein sequences using only statistical information encoded in a multiple sequence alignment and no tertiary structure information. Experimental testing of libraries of artificial WW domain sequences shows that a simple statistical energy function capturing coevolution between amino acid residues is necessary and sufficient to specify sequences that fold into native structures. The artificial proteins show thermodynamic stabilities similar to natural WW domains, and structure determination of one artificial protein shows excellent agreement with the WW fold at atomic resolution. The relative simplicity of the information used for creating sequences suggests a marked reduction to the potential complexity of the protein-folding problem.