Forecasting volatility by means of threshold models

The aim of this paper is to compare the forecasting performance of competing threshold models, in order to capture the asymmetric effect in the volatility. We focus on examining the relative out‐of‐sample forecasting ability of the SETAR‐Threshold GARCH (SETAR‐TGARCH) and the SETAR‐Threshold Stochastic Volatility (SETAR‐THSV) models compared to the GARCH model and Stochastic Volatility (SV) model. However, the main problem in evaluating the predictive ability of volatility models is that the ‘true’ underlying volatility process is not observable and thus a proxy must be defined for the unobservable volatility. For the class of nonlinear state space models (SETAR‐THSV and SV), a modified version of the SIR algorithm has been used to estimate the unknown parameters. The forecasting performance of competing models has been compared for two return time series: IBEX 35 and S&P 500. We explore whether the increase in the complexity of the model implies that its forecasting ability improves. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A New Discipline of Science-The Study of Open Complex Giant System and Its Methodology

This paper introduces the conception of open complex giant system and the methodology for dealing with the system, with stress on its profound significance in development of science and technology. The authors conclude that the reductionism underlying the exact science is not suitable to open complex giant system, and the only feasible alternative is the meta-synthetic engineering from the qualitative to the quantitative.     

固体导弹采用导管的分析研究

固体导弹由于测压、安全、关机与点火等的需要,采用的管路系统越来越多、越来越复杂,本文讨论了避免采用管路系统的重要性、可能性与具体方案,提出应严格制定并不断完善研制规范、加强管路系统的地面试验。     

Channel Mismatching in Sidelobe Canceler: Limitations and Remedies

After a brief recall of the Sidelobe Canceler (SLC) working principle, including the derivation of a general formula for the Cancellation Ratio (CR), the effects of channel mismatching are investigated. In particular, curves providing CRvalues as a function of amplitude and phase channel mismatching, radar bandwidth, and jammer direction of arrival (JDOA) are provided for the cases of one and two auxiliary antennas. Subsequently, a time -space processor for performance restoration is analyzed in detail. In addition to the above mentioned quantities, the attainable CR value is expressed as a function of the space-time processor parameters. The contribution of the paper is related to the derivation of a number of mathematical equations of CR for several cases of practical interest for the radar engineer. In addition, several curves are presented to assist design of SLC systems.     

面向对象的MIS重构

在MIS(Management Information System)的开发中,软件重用是提高开发效率的一条重要途径。本文通过引入对象的表示、变换等,提出了软件重构的概念和方法,它是对软件重用的重要扩充。     

Karyotypes of seven species of bats from Thailand (Chiroptera,Mammalia)

Summary Karyotypes ofMyotis siligorensis, Myotis mystacinus, Pipistrellus pulveratus, Tylonycteris robustula, Miniopterus schreibersi fuliginosus, Hipposideros fulvus andAselliscus stoliczkanus from Thailand are investigated.Acknowledgment. The authors are very grateful to Dr N. Ratanawarabhan, Mrs S. Sittilert, P. Noonpakdee and S. Kuanchalern of Thailand Institute of Scientific and Technological Research for their valuable advice and assistance during our field survey in Thailand.