Bias‐corrected bootstrap prediction intervals for autoregressive model: new alternatives with applications to tourism forecasting

This paper proposes the use of the bias‐corrected bootstrap for interval forecasting of an autoregressive time series with an arbitrary number of deterministic components. We use the bias‐corrected bootstrap based on two alternative bias‐correction methods: the bootstrap and an analytic formula based on asymptotic expansion. We also propose a new stationarity‐correction method, based on stable spectral factorization, as an alternative to Kilian's method exclusively used in past studies. A Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to compare small‐sample properties of prediction intervals. The results show that the bias‐corrected bootstrap prediction intervals proposed in this paper exhibit desirable small‐sample properties. It is also found that the bootstrap bias‐corrected prediction intervals based on stable spectral factorization are tighter and more stable than those based on Kilian's stationarity‐correction. The proposed methods are applied to interval forecasting for the number of tourist arrivals in Hong Kong. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of water temperature on growth of razorback sucker larvae

I conducted laboratory experiments and fit a response surface regression model to evaluate growth of endangered razorback sucker ( Xyrauchen texanus ) up to 37 days post-hatch. Fish growth at ad libitum ration was positively related to water temperature, and larvae reared at 25.5°C grew about twice as fast in length and 4 times as fast in weight as those at 16.5°C. Growth was intermediate at 19.5°C and 22.5°C. Time required for razorback sucker larvae to exceed 25 mm total length (TL), a potentially important threshold for reduced predation, was 30 days (post-hatch) at 25.5°C, 33 days at 22.5°C, 36 days at 19.5°C, and 41 days at 16.5°C. Time to exceed 25 mm TL increased to 52 days under a low growth rate of 0.29 mm ? d –1 . Faster growth rates could reduce the time that razorback sucker larvae are vulnerable to predation by abundant and co-occurring small-bodied fish and invertebrate predators in nursery areas. Growth of razorback sucker larvae could be enhanced if flow re-regulation at Flaming Gorge Dam and downstream levee removal restored connections between the Green River and its floodplain and increased availability of warm and productive wetlands.     

Environmental effects on Common Snipe winnowing and calling (activity)

Our objective was to clarify the effects of 10 identified variables on snipe activity (winnowing and calling) by demonstrating correlations between the variables and snipe activity. We monitored snipe at 2 study areas in southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming at all hours of the day and night during the 1996 and 1997 breeding seasons. We measured 10 variables at established points along transects that were situated through the middle of each study site (8 study sites total). A total of 1200 monitoring periods were conducted throughout the course of this study. Effects of each factor on snipe activity were considered by examining general trends in each factor's graphical representation. Our results identified 6 factors (season, time of day, lunar cycle, solar radiation, wind speed, and temperature) that are associated with snipe activity. Snipe were most active early in the breeding season during 2 twilight periods during the first and last quarters of the lunar cycle. Low solar radiation levels, wind speeds, and temperatures were also most ideal conditions for snipe activity. All 6 factors should be considered when attempting to detect, survey, or estimate snipe populations.     

A transition zone complex regulates mammalian ciliogenesis and ciliary membrane composition

Mutations affecting ciliary components cause ciliopathies. As described here, we investigated Tectonic1 (Tctn1), a regulator of mouse Hedgehog signaling, and found that it is essential for ciliogenesis in some, but not all, tissues. Cell types that do not require Tctn1 for ciliogenesis require it to localize select membrane-associated proteins to the cilium, including Arl13b, AC3, Smoothened and Pkd2. Tctn1 forms a complex with multiple ciliopathy proteins associated with Meckel and Joubert syndromes, including Mks1, Tmem216, Tmem67, Cep290, B9d1, Tctn2 and Cc2d2a. Components of this complex co-localize at the transition zone, a region between the basal body and ciliary axoneme. Like Tctn1, loss of Tctn2, Tmem67 or Cc2d2a causes tissue-specific defects in ciliogenesis and ciliary membrane composition. Consistent with a shared function for complex components, we identified a mutation in TCTN1 that causes Joubert syndrome. Thus, a transition zone complex of Meckel and Joubert syndrome proteins regulates ciliary assembly and trafficking, suggesting that transition zone dysfunction is the cause of these ciliopathies.     

Disruption of mouse Slx4, a regulator of structure-specific nucleases, phenocopies Fanconi anemia

The evolutionarily conserved SLX4 protein, a key regulator of nucleases, is critical for DNA damage response. SLX4 nuclease complexes mediate repair during replication and can also resolve Holliday junctions formed during homologous recombination. Here we describe the phenotype of the Btbd12 knockout mouse, the mouse ortholog of SLX4, which recapitulates many key features of the human genetic illness Fanconi anemia. Btbd12-deficient animals are born at sub-Mendelian ratios, have greatly reduced fertility, are developmentally compromised and are prone to blood cytopenias. Btbd12(-/-) cells prematurely senesce, spontaneously accumulate damaged chromosomes and are particularly sensitive to DNA crosslinking agents. Genetic complementation reveals a crucial requirement for Btbd12 (also known as Slx4) to interact with the structure-specific endonuclease Xpf-Ercc1 to promote crosslink repair. The Btbd12 knockout mouse therefore establishes a disease model for Fanconi anemia and genetically links a regulator of nuclease incision complexes to the Fanconi anemia DNA crosslink repair pathway.     

Differential effects of oncogenic K-Ras and N-Ras on proliferation, differentiation and tumor progression in the colon

Kras is commonly mutated in colon cancers, but mutations in Nras are rare. We have used genetically engineered mice to determine whether and how these related oncogenes regulate homeostasis and tumorigenesis in the colon. Expression of K-Ras(G12D) in the colonic epithelium stimulated hyperproliferation in a Mek-dependent manner. N-Ras(G12D) did not alter the growth properties of the epithelium, but was able to confer resistance to apoptosis. In the context of an Apc-mutant colonic tumor, activation of K-Ras led to defects in terminal differentiation and expansion of putative stem cells within the tumor epithelium. This K-Ras tumor phenotype was associated with attenuated signaling through the MAPK pathway, and human colon cancer cells expressing mutant K-Ras were hypersensitive to inhibition of Raf, but not Mek. These studies demonstrate clear phenotypic differences between mutant Kras and Nras, and suggest that the oncogenic phenotype of mutant K-Ras might be mediated by noncanonical signaling through Ras effector pathways.     

Common variants near MC4R are associated with fat mass, weight and risk of obesity

To identify common variants influencing body mass index (BMI), we analyzed genome-wide association data from 16,876 individuals of European descent. After previously reported variants in FTO, the strongest association signal (rs17782313, P = 2.9 x 10(-6)) mapped 188 kb downstream of MC4R (melanocortin-4 receptor), mutations of which are the leading cause of monogenic severe childhood-onset obesity. We confirmed the BMI association in 60,352 adults (per-allele effect = 0.05 Z-score units; P = 2.8 x 10(-15)) and 5,988 children aged 7-11 (0.13 Z-score units; P = 1.5 x 10(-8)). In case-control analyses (n = 10,583), the odds for severe childhood obesity reached 1.30 (P = 8.0 x 10(-11)). Furthermore, we observed overtransmission of the risk allele to obese offspring in 660 families (P (pedigree disequilibrium test average; PDT-avg) = 2.4 x 10(-4)). The SNP location and patterns of phenotypic associations are consistent with effects mediated through altered MC4R function. Our findings establish that common variants near MC4R influence fat mass, weight and obesity risk at the population level and reinforce the need for large-scale data integration to identify variants influencing continuous biomedical traits.     

A genome-wide scan identifies mutations in the gene encoding phosphodiesterase 11A4 (PDE11A) in individuals with adrenocortical hyperplasia

Phosphodiesterases (PDEs) regulate cyclic nucleotide levels. Increased cyclic AMP (cAMP) signaling has been associated with PRKAR1A or GNAS mutations and leads to adrenocortical tumors and Cushing syndrome. We investigated the genetic source of Cushing syndrome in individuals with adrenocortical hyperplasia that was not caused by known defects. We performed genome-wide SNP genotyping, including the adrenocortical tumor DNA. The region with the highest probability to harbor a susceptibility gene by loss of heterozygosity (LOH) and other analyses was 2q31-2q35. We identified mutations disrupting the expression of the PDE11A isoform-4 gene (PDE11A) in three kindreds. Tumor tissues showed 2q31-2q35 LOH, decreased protein expression and high cyclic nucleotide levels and cAMP-responsive element binding protein (CREB) phosphorylation. PDE11A codes for a dual-specificity PDE that is expressed in adrenal cortex and is partially inhibited by tadalafil and other PDE inhibitors; its germline inactivation is associated with adrenocortical hyperplasia, suggesting another means by which dysregulation of cAMP signaling causes endocrine tumors.