Optimal reactive vaccination strategies for a foot-and-mouth outbreak in the UK

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the UK provides an ideal opportunity to explore optimal control measures for an infectious disease. The presence of fine-scale spatio-temporal data for the 2001 epidemic has allowed the development of epidemiological models that are more accurate than those generally created for other epidemics and provide the opportunity to explore a variety of alternative control measures. Vaccination was not used during the 2001 epidemic; however, the recent DEFRA (Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs) contingency plan details how reactive vaccination would be considered in future. Here, using the data from the 2001 epidemic, we consider the optimal deployment of limited vaccination capacity in a complex heterogeneous environment. We use a model of FMD spread to investigate the optimal deployment of reactive ring vaccination of cattle constrained by logistical resources. The predicted optimal ring size is highly dependent upon logistical constraints but is more robust to epidemiological parameters. Other ways of targeting reactive vaccination can significantly reduce the epidemic size; in particular, ignoring the order in which infections are reported and vaccinating those farms closest to any previously reported case can substantially reduce the epidemic. This strategy has the advantage that it rapidly targets new foci of infection and that determining an optimal ring size is unnecessary.     

The influence of Antarctic sea ice on glacial-interglacial CO2 variations

Ice-core measurements indicate that atmospheric CO2 concentrations during glacial periods were consistently about 80 parts per million lower than during interglacial periods. Previous explanations for this observation have typically had difficulty accounting for either the estimated glacial O2 concentrations in the deep sea, 13C/12C ratios in Antarctic surface waters, or the depth of calcite saturation; also lacking is an explanation for the strong link between atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic air temperature. There is growing evidence that the amount of deep water upwelling at low latitudes is significantly overestimated in most ocean general circulation models and simpler box models previously used to investigate this problem. Here we use a box model with deep-water upwelling confined to south of 55 degrees S to investigate the glacial-interglacial linkages between Antarctic air temperature and atmospheric CO2 variations. We suggest that low glacial atmospheric CO2 levels might result from reduced deep-water ventilation associated with either year-round Antarctic sea-ice coverage, or wintertime coverage combined with ice-induced stratification during the summer. The model presented here reproduces 67 parts per million of the observed glacial-interglacial CO2 difference, as a result of reduced air-sea gas exchange in the Antarctic region, and is generally consistent with the additional observational constraints.     

Planning for smallpox outbreaks

Mathematical models of viral transmission and control are important tools for assessing the threat posed by deliberate release of the smallpox virus and the best means of containing an outbreak. Models must balance biological realism against limitations of knowledge, and uncertainties need to be accurately communicated to policy-makers. Smallpox poses the particular challenge that key biological, social and spatial factors affecting disease spread in contemporary populations must be elucidated largely from historical studies undertaken before disease eradication in 1979. We review the use of models in smallpox planning within the broader epidemiological context set by recent outbreaks of both novel and re-emerging pathogens.     

Defects in TCIRG1 subunit of the vacuolar proton pump are responsible for a subset of human autosomal recessive osteopetrosis

Osteopetrosis includes a group of inherited diseases in which inadequate bone resorption is caused by osteoclast dysfunction. Although molecular defects have been described for many animal models of osteopetrosis, the gene responsible for most cases of the severe human form of the disease (infantile malignant osteopetrosis) is unknown. Infantile malignant autosomal recessive osteopetrosis (MIM 259700) is a severe bone disease with a fatal outcome, generally within the first decade of life. Osteoclasts are present in normal or elevated numbers in individuals affected by autosomal recessive osteopetrosis, suggesting that the defect is not in osteoclast differentiation, but in a gene involved in the functional capacity of mature osteoclasts. Some of the mouse mutants have a decreased number of osteoclasts, which suggests that the defect directly interferes with osteoclast differentiation. In other mutants, it is the function of the osteoclast that seems to be affected, as they show normal or elevated numbers of non-functioning osteoclasts. Here we show that TCIRG1, encoding the osteoclast-specific 116-kD subunit of the vacuolar proton pump, is mutated in five of nine patients with a diagnosis of infantile malignant osteopetrosis. Our data indicate that mutations in TCIRG1 are a frequent cause of autosomal recessive osteopetrosis in humans.