Metallurgy, the Father of Materials Science

The BeginningsThe English- language phrase materials science andengineering ( MSE) emerged at an unknown timeand place in the United States of America in theearly 1 95 0 s.One suggestion is that it,and theconcept it denotes,arose out of sustaineddiscussio…     

Editorial

Systemic Practice and Action Research -     

Seasonal prediction of European cereal prices: good forecasts using bad models?

Because of their natural adherence to the climate and pronounced seasonal cycles, prices of field crops constitute an interesting field for exploring seasonal time series models. We consider quarterly prices of two major cereals: barley and wheat. Using traditional in‐sample fit and moving‐window techniques, we investigate whether seasonality is deterministic or unit‐root stochastic and whether seasonal cycles have converged over time. We find that seasonal cycles in the data are mainly deterministic and that evidence on common cycles across countries differs for the two commodities. Out‐of‐sample prediction experiments, however, yield a ranking with respect to accuracy that does not match the statistical in‐sample evidence. Parametric bootstrap experiments establish that the observed mismatch is indeed an inherent and systematic feature. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

人工淹水逆境处理对美洲黑杨苗生理特性的影响

本文主要从下述三方面对美洲黑杨16个无性系苗在人工淹水处理后，其生理特性的变化进行了初步研究：1、人工淹水深度对无性系苗生理特性的影响；2、人工淹水持续时间长短对无性系苗生理特性的影响；3、不同无性系苗在遭受淹水胁迫后生理特性的变化，被测定的生理指标包括可变荧光Fv、叶扩散阻力re(S.cm^-2)、蒸腾强度Tr(ugH2O.cm^-2.S^-1)和叶水势Ψ（Bar)。研究结果表明，人工淹水深度与持续时间长短对16个美洲黑杨无性系苗的生理特性有明显的影响。     

Correspondence on the selection of error measures for comparisons among forecasting methods

Clements and Hendry (1993) proposed the Generalized Forecast Error Second Moment (GFESM) as an improvement to the Mean Square Error in comparing forecasting performance across data series. They based their conclusion on the fact that rankings based on GFESM remain unaltered if the series are linearly transformed. In this paper, we argue that this evaluation ignores other important criteria. Also, their conclusions were illustrated by a simulation study whose relationship to real data was not obvious. Thirdly, prior empirical studies show that the mean square error is an inappropriate measure to serve as a basis for comparison. This undermines the claims made for the GFESM.     

Editorial

Systemic Practice and Action Research -     

Enhancing the process of methodology choice in total systems intervention (TSI) and improving chances of tackling coercion

The process of Choice in TSI is reexamined in this paper. Previously, methods² have been understood to have a given and immediate purpose and are employed when this is judged to be most suitable in the circumstances. In this paper we suggest that methods can be operated in ways that meet purposes not provided by their founding theoretical underpinnings. We develop this argument by pointing to cases where cybernetic or soft methods are driven by purposes and principles given to emancipatory methodology—in a quest to address more effectively issues of coercion. This may be necessary when explicit and direct employment of emancipatory methodology is not sensitive enough to political dynamics, where certain people may feel overly threatened by its language and consequently feel the need to subvert its use. We develop a defence for thisoblique use of cybernetic and soft methods in coercive contexts, and extend the argument to suggest that all methods can be employed in such a way.