On the limitations of comparing mean square forecast errors

Linear models are invariant under non-singular, scale-preserving linear transformations, whereas mean square forecast errors (MSFEs) are not. Different rankings may result across models or methods from choosing alternative yet isomorphic representations of a process. One approach can dominate others for comparisons in levels, yet lose to another for differences, to a second for cointegrating vectors and to a third for combinations of variables. The potential for switches in ranking is related to criticisms of the inadequacy of MSFE against encompassing criteria, which are invariant under linear transforms and entail MSFE dominance. An invariant evaluation criterion which avoids misleading outcomes is examined in a Monte Carlo study of forecasting methods.     

Effects of vitamin B12 on plasma melatonin rhythm in humans: increased light sensitivity phase-advances the circadian clock?

Vitamin B12 (methylcobalamin) was administered orally (3 mg/day) to 9 healthy subjects for 4 weeks. Nocturnal melatonin levels after exposure to bright light (ca. 2500 lx) were determined, as well as the levels of plasma melatonin over 24 h. The timing of sleep was also recorded. Vitamin B12 was given blind to the subjects and crossed over with placebo. We found that the 24-h melatonin rhythm was significantly phase-advanced (1.1 h) in the vitamin B12 trial as compared with that in the placebo trial. In addition, the 24-h mean of plasma melatonin level was much lower in the vitamin B12 trial than with the placebo. Furthermore, the nocturnal melatonin levels during bright light exposure were significantly lower in the vitamin B12 trial than with the placebo. On the other hand, vitamin B12 did not affect the timing of sleep. These findings raise the possibility that vitamin B12 phase-advances the human circadian rhythm by increasing the light sensitivity of the circadian clock.     

Retrograde transport of endocytosed Shiga toxin to the endoplasmic reticulum.

Shiga toxin and some other protein toxins that act on targets in the cytosol have previously been shown to enter the trans-Golgi network. Transport by this route may be necessary for translocation of the toxin to the cytosol and for intoxication, but it is not known whether the enzymatically active part of the toxins actually enters the cytosol from the trans-Golgi network. It has been suggested that such toxins are transported in a retrograde manner to the endoplasmic reticulum and that translocation occurs in this organelle, but retrograde transport of endocytosed material beyond the trans-Golgi network has never been demonstrated. Here we show that in butyric acid-treated A431 cells endocytosed Shiga toxin is not only transported to the trans-Golgi network, but also to all Golgi stacks, to the endoplasmic reticulum and to the nuclear envelope. Furthermore, butyric acid sensitizes the cells to Shiga toxin, which is consistent with the possibility that retrograde transport is required for translocation of the toxin to the cytosol.     

Tensile strength and chemical composition of the middle lamella of the flax fibre

Zusammenfassung Es wurde die Zugkraft nasser Flachsfasern nach Behandlung mit verschiedenen Chemikalien geprüft. Es wurde gefunden, daß die Mittellamelle der Flachsfaser verschiedene miteinander verbundene Systeme enthält, nämlich Pektin, Lignin und eine im Oxalat unlös iche alkaliempfindliche Komponente.     

DETERMINATION OF KRAFT LIGNIN CONCENTRATIONS BY FTIR

A fast and accurate method based on FTIR is developed for determining the lignin content and its characteristic bands in alkali solutions. The work consisted of two main parts: 1) establishing a predictive model and 2) determination of the accuracy of the model. The model was derived by applying the partial least squares algorithm for multivariate analyses to a set of spectrum data obtained from selected IR absorption regions in the range of 1600 - 900 cm-1. The model was tested with spent liquors obtained from commercial pulp mills.The accuracy of the predictive model is extremely high suitable for commercial applications,particularly for monitoring the dynamic response of modern kraft pulping processes.     

Seasonality in human sleep.

The timing of sleep and sleep EEG parameters in 10 healthy male subjects were investigated in four seasons under controlled conditions. The phase of nocturnal sleep was delayed about one and a half hours in winter as compared to that in summer. The duration of stage 4 sleep decreased and REM sleep increased significantly in winter compared with summer. The seasonality in the timing of sleep can be explained by photoperiodic time cues, but the changes in sleep EEG parameters are difficult to explain in terms of photoperiod.     

国际发展趋势下实验力学的未来作用

考察了分析结构、结构构件以及技术系统中的位移、应变与应力的测量和实验方法在目前和未来的作用。现在,比以往任何时候都更有理由和有更广阔的领域需要用到实验力学方法;许多先进、现代化技术,新型测量设备,测量和赋值过程自动化系统可供使用;以先进的测量技术和计算机技术相结合而形成的各种杂交法已被提出来。利用这些方法,可以优化结构和产品,节约能源和原材料,提高产品质量,增强结构、技术系统的可靠、安全性,控制生产过程以及监督操作系统的安全性;利用这些方法,能够并且应当使技术系统可能发生的危险以及对环境的毁损降至最低程度。