Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations

Comprehensive global climate models are the only tools that account for the complex set of processes which will determine future climate change at both a global and regional level. Planners are typically faced with a wide range of predicted changes from different models of unknown relative quality, owing to large but unquantified uncertainties in the modelling process. Here we report a systematic attempt to determine the range of climate changes consistent with these uncertainties, based on a 53-member ensemble of model versions constructed by varying model parameters. We estimate a probability density function for the sensitivity of climate to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, and obtain a 5-95 per cent probability range of 2.4-5.4 degrees C. Our probability density function is constrained by objective estimates of the relative reliability of different model versions, the choice of model parameters that are varied and their uncertainty ranges, specified on the basis of expert advice. Our ensemble produces a range of regional changes much wider than indicated by traditional methods based on scaling the response patterns of an individual simulation.     

Anaerobic hydrocarbon biodegradation in deep subsurface oil reservoirs

Biodegradation of crude oil in subsurface petroleum reservoirs is an important alteration process with major economic consequences. Aerobic degradation of petroleum hydrocarbons at the surface is well documented and it has long been thought that the flow of oxygen- and nutrient-bearing meteoric waters into reservoirs was necessary for in-reservoir petroleum biodegradation. The occurrence of biodegraded oils in reservoirs where aerobic conditions are unlikely, together with the identification of several anaerobic microorganisms in oil fields and the discovery of anaerobic hydrocarbon biodegradation mechanisms, suggests that anaerobic degradation processes could also be responsible. The extent of anaerobic hydrocarbon degradation processes in the world's deep petroleum reservoirs, however, remains strongly contested. Moreover, no organism has yet been isolated that has been shown to degrade hydrocarbons under the conditions found in deep petroleum reservoirs. Here we report the isolation of metabolites indicative of anaerobic hydrocarbon degradation from a large fraction of 77 degraded oil samples from both marine and lacustrine sources from around the world, including the volumetrically important Canadian tar sands. Our results therefore suggest that anaerobic hydrocarbon degradation is a common process in biodegraded subsurface oil reservoirs.     

Bacterial disease resistance in Arabidopsis through flagellin perception

Plants and animals recognize microbial invaders by detecting pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMPs) such as flagellin. However, the importance of flagellin perception for disease resistance has, until now, not been demonstrated. Here we show that treatment of plants with flg22, a peptide representing the elicitor-active epitope of flagellin, induces the expression of numerous defence-related genes and triggers resistance to pathogenic bacteria in wild-type plants, but not in plants carrying mutations in the flagellin receptor gene FLS2. This induced resistance seems to be independent of salicylic acid, jasmonic acid and ethylene signalling. Wild-type and fls2 mutants both display enhanced resistance when treated with crude bacterial extracts, even devoid of elicitor-active flagellin, indicating the existence of functional perception systems for PAMPs other than flagellin. Although fls2 mutant plants are as susceptible as the wild type when bacteria are infiltrated into leaves, they are more susceptible to the pathogen Pseudomonas syringae pv. tomato DC3000 when it is sprayed on the leaf surface. Thus, flagellin perception restricts bacterial invasion, probably at an early step, and contributes to the plant's disease resistance.     

Epigenetics in human disease and prospects for epigenetic therapy

Epigenetic mechanisms, which involve DNA and histone modifications, result in the heritable silencing of genes without a change in their coding sequence. The study of human disease has focused on genetic mechanisms, but disruption of the balance of epigenetic networks can cause several major pathologies, including cancer, syndromes involving chromosomal instabilities, and mental retardation. The development of new diagnostic tools might reveal other diseases that are caused by epigenetic alterations. Great potential lies in the development of 'epigenetic therapies'--several inhibitors of enzymes controlling epigenetic modifications, specifically DNA methyltransferases and histone deacetylases, have shown promising anti-tumorigenic effects for some malignancies.     

Analyses on the climate change responses over China under SRES B2 scenario using PRECIS

The global climate has been altered by the anthro- pogenic forcing due to greenhouse gases (GHGs) emis- sions. It is pointed out in the Third Assessments Report (TAR)[1] of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 that over the 20th centur…     

Crustal rheology of the Himalaya and Southern Tibet inferred from magnetotelluric data

The Cenozoic collision between the Indian and Asian continents formed the Tibetan plateau, beginning about 70 million years ago. Since this time, at least 1,400 km of convergence has been accommodated by a combination of underthrusting of Indian and Asian lithosphere, crustal shortening, horizontal extrusion and lithospheric delamination. Rocks exposed in the Himalaya show evidence of crustal melting and are thought to have been exhumed by rapid erosion and climatically forced crustal flow. Magnetotelluric data can be used to image subsurface electrical resistivity, a parameter sensitive to the presence of interconnected fluids in the host rock matrix, even at low volume fractions. Here we present magnetotelluric data from the Tibetan-Himalayan orogen from 77 degrees E to 92 degrees E, which show that low resistivity, interpreted as a partially molten layer, is present along at least 1,000 km of the southern margin of the Tibetan plateau. The inferred low viscosity of this layer is consistent with the development of climatically forced crustal flow in Southern Tibet.     

Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future

Atmospheric aerosols counteract the warming effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases by an uncertain, but potentially large, amount. This in turn leads to large uncertainties in the sensitivity of climate to human perturbations, and therefore also in carbon cycle feedbacks and projections of climate change. In the future, aerosol cooling is expected to decline relative to greenhouse gas forcing, because of the aerosols' much shorter lifetime and the pursuit of a cleaner atmosphere. Strong aerosol cooling in the past and present would then imply that future global warming may proceed at or even above the upper extreme of the range projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.