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John Cawood 《Annals of science》2013,70(6):551-587
The establishment of Gauss's and Weber's Magnetische Verein in 1834, and the British Government's support of Edward Sabine's ‘Magnetic Crusade’ in 1838, marked the opening of a new era in international geomagnetic research. However, the British and German efforts, although initiating an increase in the scale of investigations of the earth's field, were also the culmination of over half a century of activity by individuals and institutions in several countries. This article traces the growth of international cooperation in terrestrial magnetism from the late eighteenth century until the 1830s, and examines the change in leadership in the field from France to Britain and Germany. The transition from individual to government-backed collaboration is described, and also the role of Alexander von Humboldt as an organiser of geomagnetic research and author of a cosmical approach to earth magnetism as one of a number of related ‘telluric’ forces. 相似文献
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In this paper, generalised estimators are proposed to estimate seasonal indices for certain forms of additive and mixed seasonality. The estimators combine one of two group seasonal indices methods—Dalhart's group method and Withycombe's group method—with a shrinkage method in different ways. Optimal shrinkage parameters are derived to maximise the performance of the estimators. Then, the generalised estimators, with the optimal shrinkage parameters, are evaluated based on forecasting accuracy. Moreover, the effects of three factors are examined, namely, the length of data history, variance of random components and the number of series. Finally, a simulation experiment is conducted to support the evaluation. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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John L. Turner 《Journal of forecasting》2004,23(7):513-539
This article introduces a novel framework for analysing long‐horizon forecasting of the near non‐stationary AR(1) model. Using the local to unity specification of the autoregressive parameter, I derive the asymptotic distributions of long‐horizon forecast errors both for the unrestricted AR(1), estimated using an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, and for the random walk (RW). I then identify functions, relating local to unity ‘drift’ to forecast horizon, such that OLS and RW forecasts share the same expected square error. OLS forecasts are preferred on one side of these ‘forecasting thresholds’, while RW forecasts are preferred on the other. In addition to explaining the relative performance of forecasts from these two models, these thresholds prove useful in developing model selection criteria that help a forecaster reduce error. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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John Earman 《Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics》2011,42(2):81-97
The importance of the Unruh effect lies in the fact that, together with the related (but distinct) Hawking effect, it serves to link the three main branches of modern physics: thermal/statistical physics, relativity theory/gravitation, and quantum physics. However, different researchers can have in mind different phenomena when they speak of “the Unruh effect” in flat spacetime and its generalization to curved spacetimes. Three different approaches are reviewed here. They are shown to yield results that are sometimes concordant and sometimes discordant. The discordance is disconcerting only if one insists on taking literally the definite article in “the Unruh effect.” It is argued that the role of linking different branches of physics is better served by taking “the Unruh effect” to designate a family of related phenomena. The relation between the Hawking effect and the generalized Unruh effect for curved spacetimes is briefly discussed. 相似文献
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