A comparison of adaptive structural forecasting methods for electricity sales

This paper presents the results of a study to determine whether new forecasting technologies might be of use to electric utilities for sales forecasting up to 3 years into the future. The methods considered included ordinary least squares on dynamic structural models, autocorrelated error models, adaptive variance and adaptive parameter models. Overall, the more adaptive models performed best, but most of the methods proved vastly superior to simple least squares models which do not take dynamics into account.     

Structure of oxidized alpha-haemoglobin bound to AHSP reveals a protective mechanism for haem

The synthesis of haemoglobin A (HbA) is exquisitely coordinated during erythrocyte development to prevent damaging effects from individual alpha- and beta-subunits. The alpha-haemoglobin-stabilizing protein (AHSP) binds alpha-haemoglobin (alphaHb), inhibits the ability of alphaHb to generate reactive oxygen species and prevents its precipitation on exposure to oxidant stress. The structure of AHSP bound to ferrous alphaHb is thought to represent a transitional complex through which alphaHb is converted to a non-reactive, hexacoordinate ferric form. Here we report the crystal structure of this ferric alphaHb-AHSP complex at 2.4 A resolution. Our findings reveal a striking bis-histidyl configuration in which both the proximal and the distal histidines coordinate the haem iron atom. To attain this unusual conformation, segments of alphaHb undergo drastic structural rearrangements, including the repositioning of several alpha-helices. Moreover, conversion to the ferric bis-histidine configuration strongly and specifically inhibits redox chemistry catalysis and haem loss from alphaHb. The observed structural changes, which impair the chemical reactivity of haem iron, explain how AHSP stabilizes alphaHb and prevents its damaging effects in cells.     

Discovery of an aurora on Mars

In the high-latitude regions of Earth, aurorae are the often-spectacular visual manifestation of the interaction between electrically charged particles (electrons, protons or ions) with the neutral upper atmosphere, as they precipitate along magnetic field lines. More generally, auroral emissions in planetary atmospheres "are those that result from the impact of particles other than photoelectrons" (ref. 1). Auroral activity has been found on all four giant planets possessing a magnetic field (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune), as well as on Venus, which has no magnetic field. On the nightside of Venus, atomic O emissions at 130.4 nm and 135.6 nm appear in bright patches of varying sizes and intensities, which are believed to be produced by electrons with energy <300 eV (ref. 7). Here we report the discovery of an aurora in the martian atmosphere, using the ultraviolet spectrometer SPICAM on board Mars Express. It corresponds to a distinct type of aurora not seen before in the Solar System: it is unlike aurorae at Earth and the giant planets, which lie at the foot of the intrinsic magnetic field lines near the magnetic poles, and unlike venusian auroras, which are diffuse, sometimes spreading over the entire disk. Instead, the martian aurora is a highly concentrated and localized emission controlled by magnetic field anomalies in the martian crust.     

Differentiation of the asteroid Ceres as revealed by its shape

The accretion of bodies in the asteroid belt was halted nearly 4.6 billion years ago by the gravitational influence of the newly formed giant planet Jupiter. The asteroid belt therefore preserves a record of both this earliest epoch of Solar System formation and variation of conditions within the solar nebula. Spectral features in reflected sunlight indicate that some asteroids have experienced sufficient thermal evolution to differentiate into layered structures. The second most massive asteroid--4 Vesta--has differentiated to a crust, mantle and core. 1 Ceres, the largest and most massive asteroid, has in contrast been presumed to be homogeneous, in part because of its low density, low albedo and relatively featureless visible reflectance spectrum, similar to carbonaceous meteorites that have suffered minimal thermal processing. Here we show that Ceres has a shape and smoothness indicative of a gravitationally relaxed object. Its shape is significantly less flattened than that expected for a homogeneous object, but is consistent with a central mass concentration indicative of differentiation. Possible interior configurations include water-ice-rich mantles over a rocky core.