基于系统动力学机制的组合港发展研究

为提升港口的国际竞争力,现代港口在竞争与合作中,建立港口物流供应链的战略合作伙伴关系,形成组合港。剖析组合港的概念及内涵,应用系统动力学理论及仿真方法,分析组合港发展的因果关系、运输需求、能力供给与经济发展的基本反馈关系等,建立组合港发展的系统动力学仿真模型。苏州组合港的实证分析表明,该方法为港口发展决策提供理论依据和指导。     

电力备用市场资源优化配置的模型与求解方法

对于发电公司在电力备用市场中的资源优化配置问题,建立一种均值一方差模型,同时允许发电公司从市场购买某种产品以满足其它产品的需求.针对模型中出现的非光滑问题,引入极大熵函数将其光滑化,并采用非线性互补方法求解.该方法利用Karush-Kuhn-Tuchker(KKT)条件得到一个非线性互补问题,然后利用非线性互补函数将其转化为非光滑方程组,并引入参数再次进行光滑化,最终通过求解一组光滑方程组以逼近原问题的最优解.数值分析验证了该方法的有效性.     

三江平原旱田CO2通量日变化特征研究

利用静态暗箱/气相色谱法对三江平原由小叶章草句垦殖后的旱田(大豆地)进行CO2排放通量的日变化观测实验.结果表明旱田土壤-植物系统和旱田土壤的CO2通量均具有明显的日变化规律,旱田土壤-植物系统CO2通量最大值出现在10:00,最小值出现在6:00,其变化趋势与气温和0cm地温呈显著正相关;旱田土壤CO2通量最大值出现在16:00,最小值出现在6:00,且其变化趋势与气温、5cm、10cm、15cm和20cm地温均呈显著或极显著正相关.旱田土壤-植物系统CO2通量的主要贡献者是植物的暗呼吸作用,且土壤-植物系统CO2通量的日变化幅度大于土壤.图5,表3,参16.     

基于RAGA的灰色BP神经网络预测模型及其对三江平原地下水埋深的动态预测

三江平原是我国粮食主产区之一,近年来农业水资源出现危机.预测该地区地下水动态变化趋势,对于指导该地区合理开发利用地下水有着重大的理论和现实意义.建立了基于RAGA的灰色BP神经网络预测模型.该模型克服了传统GM(1,1)模型存在明显系统误差的缺点,既具有GM(1,1)模型对数据确定性方面把握的长处,也融合了人工神经网络在不确定因素预测领域的优势.通过两种途径进行检验,结果表明该模型具有相对较高的预测精度.运用该模型对三江平原地下水埋深进行动态预测,未来五年内,如果仍按目前的发展模式,该地区地下水埋深仍将持续下降,从2007年到2012年,该地区地下水平均每年下降0.3m.预测结果对有关部门的政策决策具有一定的指导意义.     

Cluster Synchronization in a Complex Dynamical Network with Two Nonidentical Clusters

This paper further investigates cluster synchronization in a complex dynamical network with two-cluster. Each cluster contains a number of identical dynamical systems, however, the subsystems composing the two clusters can be different, i.e., the individual dynamical system in one cluster can differ from that in the other cluster. Complete synchronization within each cluster is possible only if each node from one cluster receives the same input from nodes in other cluster. In this case, the stability condition of one-cluster synchronization is known to contain two terms： the first accounts for the contribution of the inner-cluster coupling structure while the second is simply an extra linear term, which can be deduced by the ＂same-input＂ condition. Applying the connection graph stability method, the authors obtain an upper bound of input strength for one cluster if the first account is known, by which the synchronizability of cluster can be scaled. For different clusters, there are different upper bound of input strength by virtue of different dynamics and the corresponding cluster structure. Moreover, two illustrative examples are presented and the numerical simulations coincide with the theoretical analysis.     

基于IMM-UKF方法的主动段目标分级与关机识别

主动段目标的分级与关机识别对于系统把握目标模型切换并部署后续跟踪具有重要意义。建立了主动段目标的分级和关机所涉及的两级主动段模型和中段模型;引入了交互式多模型框架以应对不确定模式下的跟踪问题,引入了无迹卡尔曼滤波以解决非线性估计问题。在天基观测条件下进行了仿真实验,结果表明,利用模型概率和总体估计误差的异常变化,可有效识别主动段目标的分级和关机。     

短期免耕对黑土孔隙度的影响

对短期玉米免耕和秋翻处理对耕层黑土孔隙度的影响进行了分析。结果表明,耕作处理对土壤孔隙度影响较大,毛管孔隙和贮存孔隙在整个剖面内免耕均小于秋翻,但秋翻处理下的中小孔隙占有很大比例。两个处理之间的大孔隙数量相差很小,多在3%～8%之间。秋翻总孔隙度表现出表层和底层差异很大,而免耕孔隙分布相对均匀,且上下孔隙连通性较好。     

Coordinating production and recycling decisions with stochastic demand and return

In this paper, the joint production and recycling problem is investigated for a hybrid manufacturing and remanufacturing system where brand-new products are produced in the manufacturing plant and recycled products are remanufactured into as-new products in the remanufacturing facility. Both the brand-new products and remanufactured products are used to satisfy customer demands. Returns of used products that are recycled from customers are assumed to be stochastic and nonlinearly price-dependent. A mathematical model is proposed to maximize the overall profit of the system through simultaneously optimizing the production and recycling decisions, subject to two capacity constraints — the manufacturing capacity and the remanufacturing capacity. Based on Lagrangian relaxation method, subgradient algorithm and heuristic algorithm, a solution approach is developed to solve the problem. A representative example is presented to illustrate the system, and managerial analysis indicates that the uncertainties in demand and return have much influence on the production and recycling policy. In addition, twenty randomly produced examples are solved, and computational results show that the solution approach can obtain very good solutions for all examples in reasonable time.     

Coordinating pricing and inventory decisions in a bounded production system with uncertain yield

Most inventory researches assume that production level can fluctuate arbitrarily. However, large fluctuation of the production level in many firms may be much costly. This paper addresses the coordinating pricing and inventory control problem in a bounded production system with uncertain yield, in which the production level is constrained between a maximum and minimum level in each period and the price can be adjusted dynamically. We show that the optimal policy is the interval base-stock-list-price policy. Also, we study the impact of the production bounds and uncertainty of the yield on the production system. Numerical experiments are also performed to study the impact of parameters on the system.     

The M/PH/1 queue with working vacations and vacation interruption

We study an M/PH/1 queue with phase type working vacation and vacation interruption where the vacation time follows a phase type distribution. The server serves the customers at a lower rate in a vacation period. The server comes back to the regular busy period at a service completion without completing the vacation. Such policy is called vacation interruption. In terms of quasi birth and death process and matrix-geometric solution method, we obtain the stationary queue length distribution. Moreover we obtain the conditional stochastic decomposition structures of queue length and waiting time when the service time distribution in the regular busy period is exponential.