Price–Dividend Ratios and Stock Price Predictability

A long‐standing puzzle to financial economists is the difficulty of outperforming the benchmark random walk model in out‐of‐sample contests. Using data from the USA over the period of 1872–2007, this paper re‐examines the out‐of‐sample predictability of real stock prices based on price–dividend (PD) ratios. The current research focuses on the significance of the time‐varying mean and nonlinear dynamics of PD ratios in the empirical analysis. Empirical results support the proposed nonlinear model of the PD ratio and the stationarity of the trend‐adjusted PD ratio. Furthermore, this paper rejects the non‐predictability hypothesis of stock prices statistically based on in‐ and out‐of‐sample tests and economically based on the criteria of expected real return per unit of risk. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Somatic histone H3 alterations in pediatric diffuse intrinsic pontine gliomas and non-brainstem glioblastomas

To identify somatic mutations in pediatric diffuse intrinsic pontine glioma (DIPG), we performed whole-genome sequencing of DNA from seven DIPGs and matched germline tissue and targeted sequencing of an additional 43 DIPGs and 36 non-brainstem pediatric glioblastomas (non-BS-PGs). We found that 78% of DIPGs and 22% of non-BS-PGs contained a mutation in H3F3A, encoding histone H3.3, or in the related HIST1H3B, encoding histone H3.1, that caused a p.Lys27Met amino acid substitution in each protein. An additional 14% of non-BS-PGs had somatic mutations in H3F3A causing a p.Gly34Arg alteration.     

A genome-wide association study in Han Chinese identifies new susceptibility loci for ankylosing spondylitis

To identify susceptibility loci for ankylosing spondylitis, we performed a two-stage genome-wide association study in Han Chinese. In the discovery stage, we analyzed 1,356,350 autosomal SNPs in 1,837 individuals with ankylosing spondylitis and 4,231 controls; in the validation stage, we analyzed 30 suggestive SNPs in an additional 2,100 affected individuals and 3,496 controls. We identified two new susceptibility loci between EDIL3 and HAPLN1 at 5q14.3 (rs4552569; P = 8.77 × 10(-10)) and within ANO6 at 12q12 (rs17095830; P = 1.63 × 10(-8)). We also confirmed previously reported associations in Europeans within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) region (top SNP, rs13202464; P < 5 × 10(-324)) and at 2p15 (rs10865331; P = 1.98 × 10(-8)). We show that rs13202464 within the MHC region mainly represents the risk effect of HLA-B*27 variants (including HLA-B*2704, HLA-B*2705 and HLA-B*2715) in Chinese. The two newly discovered loci implicate genes related to bone formation and cartilage development, suggesting their potential involvement in the etiology of ankylosing spondylitis.     

A genome-wide association study in Chinese men identifies three risk loci for non-obstructive azoospermia

Non-obstructive azoospermia (NOA) is one of the most severe forms of male infertility. Its pathophysiology is largely unknown, and few genetic influences have been defined. To identify common variants contributing to NOA in Han Chinese men, we performed a three-stage genome-wide association study of 2,927 individuals with NOA and 5,734 controls. The combined analyses identified significant (P < 5.0 × 10(-8)) associations between NOA risk and common variants near PRMT6 (rs12097821 at 1p13.3: odds ratio (OR) = 1.25, P = 5.7 × 10(-10)), PEX10 (rs2477686 at 1p36.32: OR = 1.39, P = 5.7 × 10(-12)) and SOX5 (rs10842262 at 12p12.1: OR = 1.23, P = 2.3 × 10(-9)). These findings implicate genetic variants at 1p13.3, 1p36.32 and 12p12.1 in the etiology of NOA in Han Chinese men.     

Frequent mutations of chromatin remodeling genes in transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder

Transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) is the most common type of bladder cancer. Here we sequenced the exomes of nine individuals with TCC and screened all the somatically mutated genes in a prevalence set of 88 additional individuals with TCC with different tumor stages and grades. In our study, we discovered a variety of genes previously unknown to be mutated in TCC. Notably, we identified genetic aberrations of the chromatin remodeling genes (UTX, MLL-MLL3, CREBBP-EP300, NCOR1, ARID1A and CHD6) in 59% of our 97 subjects with TCC. Of these genes, we showed UTX to be altered substantially more frequently in tumors of low stages and grades, highlighting its potential role in the classification and diagnosis of bladder cancer. Our results provide an overview of the genetic basis of TCC and suggest that aberration of chromatin regulation might be a hallmark of bladder cancer.     

支持向量机在围岩变形监测中的应用

根据支特向量机优越的非线性拟合性能,建立变形量的时间序列预测模型,滚动预测围岩变形量,提高了预测模型的训练速度和预测推广能力。该方法用于西乡-固戍盾构段围岩变形预测,并与BP神经网络预测进行比较。结果表明这种模型可预测区间较长且具有较高的准确度,能够科学地指导现场施工和监测。     

溶胶-凝胶法制备纳米SiO2包覆的铝颜料

铝颜料是重要的金属颜料之一,当其用于水性涂料时,易被腐蚀而逐渐失去金属光泽,为了提高铝颜料的耐碱性,在乙醇/水体系中,采用溶胶-凝胶法制备了纳米SiO2包覆的铝颜料,利用SEM、XRD和FTIR分析手段对其进行了表征,并考察了其耐碱性.结果表明:当体系原料H2O/NH3/TEOS的摩尔比为32.7∶4.4∶1时,SiO2可以在铝颜料表面形成致密的保护膜;铝颜料经SiO2包覆处理后,其耐碱性大大提高,在pH=11的溶液中放置60天后,没有任何H2产生,表明经SiO2包覆处理的铝颜料具有优异的耐碱性.     

复合土钉墙中搅拌桩对变形及土钉拉力的影响

复合土钉墙中的水泥搅拌桩对于减小基坑水平位移、改善土钉的受力状态有重要作用,但目前对于搅拌桩在复合土钉墙中这一作用的研究多局限在定性探讨,未进行较为量化的分析,在复合土钉墙的设计中也一般将搅拌桩作为安全储备.文中通过对复合土钉墙的有限元分析,对复合土钉墙中不同搅拌桩排数、长度及不同土层情况进行了对比研究.结果表明,设置不同排数的搅拌桩对于复合土钉墙的受力机理、变形特性、土钉拉力大小及分布均有较大影响,1~2排搅拌桩较为合理,过多的搅拌桩排数可能会导致复合土钉墙出现重力式挡墙的受力、变形性态,增加上部土钉的拉力.     

磁带库随机I/O缓冲调度算法的性能

为了提高磁带设备的在线存储效率,提出了一种磁带库缓冲调度算法.该算法采用磁盘驱动器做缓存,将磁带库设备虚拟为逻辑块设备使用.同时,提出了主动写回以及读预取方法,将磁带库的随机读写操作顺序化,以改善系统随机读写性能.文中还对算法性能进行了详细分析,并利用仿真方法对算法进行了测试,结果证明系统集合I/O和单I/O响应时间能够得到明显改善.