Boltzmann's ergodic hypothesis

Summary Boltzmann's ergodic hypothesis is usually understood as the assumption that the trajectory of an isolated mechanical system runs through all states compatible with the total energy of the system. This understanding of Boltzmann stems from the Ehrenfests' review of the foundations of statistical mechanics in 1911. If Boltzmann's work is read with any attention, it becomes impossible to ascribe to him the claim that one single trajectory would fill the whole of state space. He admitted a continuous number of different possible mechanical trajectories. Ergodicity was formulated as the condition that only one integral of motion, the total energy, is preserved in time. The two reasons for this are external disturbing forces and collisions within the system. Boltzmann found it difficult to ascribe ergodic behavior to a single system where the theoretical dependence on initial conditions, though never observed, has to be admitted as possible. To circumvent the dependence, he invented the concept of a microcanonical ensemble.     

文化景观和土地利用自然保护O社会层面

文化景观是指居住在地球上的人类集团为满足社会经济需要所创造的景观，如：农田、城市、荒漠中的绿洲等。文化景观由人们创造，被人们利用，但是如何保持良好的生物多样性，并且与自然和谐共处呢？文化景观面临的挑战是社会经济的复杂性凌驾于自然保护的生物多样性之上。本书尝试接近这个复杂的事物，并提供理论背景、实践方针和实例。本书吸纳了来自欧洲和美国的科学家、管理者、独立顾问和政治家的观点。怀着对农业特殊的重视，     

Asymmetries in conditional mean and variance: modelling stock returns by asMA‐asQGARCH

We propose a nonlinear time series model where both the conditional mean and the conditional variance are asymmetric functions of past information. The model is particularly useful for analysing financial time series where it has been noted that there is an asymmetric impact of good news and bad news on volatility (risk) transmission. We introduce a coherent framework for testing asymmetries in the conditional mean and the conditional variance, separately or jointly. To this end we derive both a Wald and a Lagrange multiplier test. Some of the new asymmetric model's moment properties are investigated. Detailed empirical results are given for the daily returns of the composite index of the New York Stock Exchange. There is strong evidence of asymmetry in both the conditional mean and the conditional variance functions. In a genuine out‐of‐sample forecasting experiment the performance of the best fitted asymmetric model, having asymmetries in both conditional mean and conditional variance, is compared with an asymmetric model for the conditional mean, and with no‐change forecasts. This is done both in terms of conditional mean forecasting as well as in terms of risk forecasting. Finally, the paper presents some evidence of asymmetries in the index stock returns of the Group of Seven (G7) industrialized countries. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ionospheric structure in the region of East-Asian equatorial anomaly reconstructed by tomography

A chain of low latitudinal ionospheric tomography along 120°E meridian has been operating since 1993. This chain is composed of six stations from Shanghai to Manila receiving signals from the transit NNSS satellites. In this paper several reconstruction examples are presented, which give the 2-D imaging of electron density distribution obtained from the observed TEC data by means of computerized tomography technique. In reconstruction process a multi-station method was used to determine the unknown phase offset. To overcome the limitation of incomplete projection data, a technique of backprojection in combination with a normalized ionospheric model was introduced to obtain the initial guess of electron density distribution. The results demonstrate that ionospheric tomographic technology is very useful and effective to investigate the equatorial and low-latitudinal ionospheric structures and dynamics. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation, of China & the Science Fourdation of State Education Committee of China Xu Jisheng: born in Nov. 1946, Professor