Henderson‐Trending of Macroeconomic Variables and Forecasting Accuracy

Using a structural time‐series model, the forecasting accuracy of a wide range of macroeconomic variables is investigated. Specifically of importance is whether the Henderson moving‐average procedure distorts the underlying time‐series properties of the data for forecasting purposes. Given the weight of attention in the literature to the seasonal adjustment process used by various statistical agencies, this study hopes to address the dearth of literature on ‘trending’ procedures. Forecasts using both the trended and untrended series are generated. The forecasts are then made comparable by ‘detrending’ the trended forecasts, and comparing both series to the realised values. Forecasting accuracy is measured by a suite of common methods, and a test of significance of difference is applied to the respective root mean square errors. It is found that the Henderson procedure does not lead to deterioration in forecasting accuracy in Australian macroeconomic variables on most occasions, though the conclusions are very different between the one‐step‐ahead and multi‐step‐ahead forecasts. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characteristics of natal and non-natal kit fox dens in the northern Chihuahuan Desert

We studied kit fox den characteristics of the northern McGregor Range of Fort Bliss Military Reservation, New Mexico, during 1994 to 1995. Twenty radio-collared kit foxes used 132 different dens, including 16 natal dens. Kit fox dens were located primarily in creosote-dominated habitat found in relatively flat, well-drained terrain. Natal dens were virtually indistinguishable from non-natal dens; however, natal den entrances were taller than non-natal den entrances. Entrances found at all dens were oriented more frequently toward the northwest and southwest. Kit foxes used more dens during the breeding (January-February) and pup-rearing season (May-July) than during gestation.     

The biological soil crusts of the San Nicolas Island: enigmatic algae from a geographically isolated ecosystem

Composite soil samples from 7 sites on San Nicolas Island were evaluated quantitatively and qualitatively for the presence of cyanobacteria and eukaryotic microalgae. Combined data demonstrated a rich algal flora with 19 cyanobacterial and 19 eukaryotic microalgal genera being identified, for a total of 56 species. Nine new species were identified and described among the cyanobacteria and the eukaryotic microalgae that were isolated: Leibleinia edaphica, Aphanothece maritima, Chroococcidiopsis edaphica, Cyanosarcina atroveneta, Hassallia californica, Hassallia pseudoramosissima, Microchaete terrestre, Palmellopsis californicus, and Pseudotetracystis compactis. Distinct distributional patterns of algal taxa existed among sites on the island and among soil algal floras of western North America. Some algal taxa appeared to be widely distributed across many desert regions, including Microcoleus vaginatus, Nostoc punctiforme, Nostoc paludosum, and Tolypothrix distorta, Chlorella vulgaris, Diplosphaera cf. chodatii, Myrmecia astigmatica, Myrmecia biatorellae, Hantzschia amphioxys, and Luticola mutica. Some taxa share a distinctly southern distribution with soil algae from southern Arizona, southern California, and Baja California (e.g., Scenedesmus deserticola and Eustigmatos magnus ). The data presented herein support the view that the cyanobacterial and microalgal floras of soil crusts possess significant biodiversity, much of it previously undescribed.     

Ecological comparison of sympatric populations of sand lizards ( Cophosaurus texanus and Callisaurus draconoides )

Sympatric populations of Cophosaurus texanus and Callisaurus draconoides were periodically sampled from March 1973 through April 1974 at Burro Creek, Mohave County, Arizona. Callisaurus were also sampled at Rock Valley, Nye County, Nevada. Sex ratios were skewed in favor of males in the adult Cophosaurus but were equal in both adult populations of Callisaurus. Both species became sexually mature as yearlings. Mean clutch sizes were 3.55 (±0.83) for Cophosaurus, and 4.25 (±1.08) and 5.07 (±1.33) for Callisaurus at Burro Creek and Rock Valley respectively. Evidence of multiple clutches was exhibited by both species. Egg weight/body weight ratios for both species and clutch weight/body weight ratios for Cophosaurus were notably smaller than previously reported. At Burro Creek both species were highly insectivorus, with orthopterans comprising the largest food group of each. Niche overlap for food was high at the ordinal level, but at the familial level it is apparent that Callisaurus probably fed in the more xeric areas of the riparian habitat. No differences were found in the temperature responses of these two lizards. However, minor temporal separations and substantial spatial partitioning were observed. Callisaurus preferred sandy open areas, while Cophosaurus preferred the presence of some rocks and boulders.     

Atomic structure holography using thermal neutrons.

The idea of atomic-resolution holography has its roots in the X-ray work of Bragg and in Gabor's electron interference microscope. Gabor's lensless microscope was not realized in his time, but over the past twelve years there has been a steady increase in the number of reports on atomic-resolution holography. All of this work involves the use of electrons or hard X-rays to produce the hologram. Neutrons are often unique among scattering probes in their interaction with materials: for example, the relative visibility of hydrogen and its isotopes is a great advantage in the study of polymers and biologically relevant materials. Recent work proposed that atomic-resolution holography could be achieved with thermal neutrons. Here we use monochromatic thermal neutrons, adopting the inside-source concept of Sz?ke, to image planes of oxygen atoms located above and below a single hydrogen atom in the oxide mineral simpsonite.     

Reproductive pair correlations and the clustering of organisms.

Clustering of organisms can be a consequence of social behaviour, or of the response of individuals to chemical and physical cues. Environmental variability can also cause clustering: for example, marine turbulence transports plankton and produces chlorophyll concentration patterns in the upper ocean. Even in a homogeneous environment, nonlinear interactions between species can result in spontaneous pattern formation. Here we show that a population of independent, random-walking organisms ('brownian bugs'), reproducing by binary division and dying at constant rates, spontaneously aggregates. Using an individual-based model, we show that clusters form out of spatially homogeneous initial conditions without environmental variability, predator-prey interactions, kinesis or taxis. The clustering mechanism is reproductively driven-birth must always be adjacent to a living organism. This clustering can overwhelm diffusion and create non-poissonian correlations between pairs (parent and offspring) or organisms, leading to the emergence of patterns.     

Notes on significant collections and additions to the flora of Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, Utah and Arizona, between 1992 and 2004

Symphyotrichum expansum (Puepp ex Spreng.) Nesom is reported new to Utah from the Escalante River drainage. A major range extension is reported for Aralia racemosa L. in the Escalante drainage, and additional populations are reported of the rare species Imperata brevifolia Vasey in Utah, including the 1st record for the Grand Staircase--Escalante National Monument. Heterotheca grandiflora Nutt. is reported new to north central Arizona. New locations and notes on an additional 22 rare species in Glen Canyon National Recreation Area are listed.     

A new monotypic genus of chiggers and four new species of Quadraseta from Venezuela (Acari: Trombiculidae)

Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} Carebareia, n. gen., and its type - species, C. johnstoni, n. sp., are described. The genus Quadraseta Brennan, 1970, is redefined and a key to the 11 included species given. Four new species, Quadraseta tachirensis, holotype ex Akodon sp., Q. rotstieri, ex Proechimys guyannensis, Q. mirandae, holotype ex Oryzomys albigularis, and Q. falconensis, ex Sylvilagus floridanus, are described.