Cryptic and non-cryptic diversity in New Guinea ground snakes of the genus Stegonotus Duméril,Bibron and Duméril, 1854: a description of four new species (Squamata: Colubridae)

ABSTRACT

The island of New Guinea has been identified as biologically megadiverse but many taxa are still poorly known. This is especially the case for many of the island’s snakes, which by their very nature can be difficult to collect and study. Here we examine the phylogenetic and phylogeographic structure of a poorly studied snake genus, Stegonotus, focusing on the species of New Guinea; until now, Stegonotus has never been examined using modern phylogenetic methods. Using molecular data from 49 individuals representing eight of the ten described species, and including all New Guinea taxa, we estimate a multilocus phylogeny and examine population structure to help identify undescribed taxa. We use morphological data from the corresponding museum vouchered specimens (where available) and also examine additional specimens for taxa not included in the molecular data set to determine morphological differences among putative taxa. We find molecular evidence for four new species of Stegonotus, both morphologically obvious and cryptic, and describe them herein. The recognition of these four species indicates that Stegonotus diversity has been previously underestimated and also suggests that there are likely additional undescribed taxa within the genus. These four taxa increase the number of described species by 40% and further confirm New Guinea as the centre of diversity for the genus.

www.zoobank.org/urn:lsid:zoobank.org:pub:9E21390E-3FD4-40EB-9442-31BC92A76B4F     

Colonial ascidians from the Foveaux Strait region of New Zealand

Colonial ascidians collected from wharf piles and natural substrata from Bluff Harbour and Stewart Island in the South Island of New Zealand are described in this paper. Two species, Lissoclinum violaceum sp. nov. and Didemnum marineae sp. nov. are new to science and described for the first time. The ascidian fauna in this region is a mixed assemblage of southern species, species with a New Zealand-wide distribution, and two species with trans-Tasman affinities.

www.zoobank.org/urn:lsid:zoobank.org:pub:37DC0D4B-8FB9-4F1D-A5A0-E9CAB3203447     

Breeding biology of the Pale-bellied Tyrant-manakin Neopelma pallescens (Aves: Pipridae) in south-eastern Brazil

The Pale-bellied Tyrant-manakin (Neopelma pallescens) inhabits semi-deciduous and riparian forests in central-north South America. Contrary to most manakins, there is no evident sexual dichromatism in the species and little is known about its breeding biology. We studied the breeding biology of a colour-banded population of the species from August to December 2016 and from August to October 2017 in the Campus Florestal of the Universidade Federal de Viçosa, south-eastern Brazil. The breeding season extended from early September to late November. The species is promiscuous, with males exhibiting simple courtship displays (exploded leks) in individual arenas. The nest (n = 13) is a cup attached by its top lip between forked branches and is very simple, with a structural layer made with dry grass stems and heads, attached to the branch with spider silk. The outer and lining layers are absent. The mean clutch size was 1.8 eggs (n = 11), which are oval and pale coloured, covered with spots of different shades of brown, often concentrated in the larger pole. Mean egg length and width (± SD) were 21.0 ± 0.9 × 15.8 ± 0.7 mm (n = 14) and the mean weight was 2.8 ± 0.4 g (n = 10). The incubation period could not be estimated, but the nestling period was 15 days (n = 2). The simple percentage of successful nests was 15.4%, with 76.9% of the nests depredated and 7.7% abandoned. This is the first detailed study about the breeding biology of any Neopelma species, providing relevant data for the study of the evolution of life history strategies not only for the genus, but for the whole family Pipridae.     

Space use by two arboreal rodent species in a Neotropical cloud forest

Studying animal space use patterns can help increase our understating of ecological processes such as competition and community dynamics. To quantify space and habitat use in an isolated and patchy cloud forest community in Mexico, we evaluate the vertical stratification, home range and habitat selection of two arboreal rodents: Habromys schmidlyi and Reithrodontomys microdon. Using live-traps at ground level and different forest strata, we radio-equipped nine individuals of H. schmidlyi and seven of R. microdon, and evaluated fine-scale space use and broad-scale habitat selection between cloud forest and oak forest. We found an average home range of 0.24 ha for R. microdon males and 0.72 ha for females, with a preference for higher canopy in the cloud forest. For H. schmidlyi the home range was 0.83 ha for males and 0.29 ha for females, with a preference for the understory level in the cloud forest. Home range is three-dimensional for these rodents, so we estimate that on average, individuals of both species used eight trees in the time they were tracked. We characterised the vegetation at the trap sites, and used recursive partitioning to relate the presence of different plants with the probability of finding these two species and Peromyscus aztecus, a third rodent species also present in the area and considered in our analysis of habitat use. The highest probability of finding R. microdon (96%) was related to the presence of Brachythecium occidentale and Renauldia mexicana, while H. schmidlyi (95%) was found in close proximity to Fabronia ciliaris and Everniastrum. We highlight the importance of arboreal trapping in biodiversity assessments, and the role of arboreal rodents in maintaining tropical forest ecosystems. We suggest that these rodent species could avoid or reduce competition by using the vertical strata differentially, and that H. schmidlyi and R. microdon can be biological indicators for cloud forest management and conservation.     

Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection over the Business Cycle

Four methods of model selection—equally weighted forecasts, Bayesian model‐averaged forecasts, and two models produced by the machine‐learning algorithm boosting—are applied to the problem of predicting business cycle turning points with a set of common macroeconomic variables. The methods address a fundamental problem faced by forecasters: the most useful model is simple but makes use of all relevant indicators. The results indicate that successful models of recession condition on different economic indicators at different forecast horizons. Predictors that describe real economic activity provide the clearest signal of recession at very short horizons. In contrast, signals from housing and financial markets produce the best forecasts at longer forecast horizons. A real‐time forecast experiment explores the predictability of the 2001 and 2007 recessions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.