Which survey indicators are useful for monitoring consumption? Evidence from European countries

This paper assesses the information content of two survey indicators for consumption developments in the near future for eight European countries in the period 1985–1998. Empirical work on this topic typically focuses on consumer confidence, the perceptions of buyers of consumption goods. This paper examines whether perceptions of sellers of consumption goods, measured by retail trade surveys, may also improve short‐term monitoring of consumption. We find that both consumer confidence and retailer confidence embody valuable information, when analysed in isolation. For France, Italy and Spain we conclude that adding retail confidence does not improve the indicator model once consumer confidence has been included. For the UK the reverse case is obtained. For the remaining four countries we show that combining consumer sentiment and retail trade confidence into a composite indicator leads to optimal results. Our results suggest that incorporating information from retail trade surveys may offer significant benefits for the analysis of short‐term prospects of consumption. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

师范院校体育教育专业篮球普修课教学改革的思考

通过对师范院校体育教育专业篮球教学目标、教学内容、教学模式、课的结构及对学生的学业成绩评价进行分析和思考 ,提出了当今篮球教学中存在的问题及其解决方法。     

从会计核算的角度探讨我国增值税的征管与转型

本文从应交增值税的核算角度探讨增值税的征收管理 ,认为应该把销项税额与进项税额的核算基础由现行的权责发生制改为收付实现制 ,从而有效控制偷、逃税现象 ,同时促进增值税税收征管的改革 ,使增值税征收管理的方式、手段更趋严密、科学。又从购进固定资产所支付的进项税额的核算角度探讨增值税制由生产型增值税转为消费型增值税 ,认为这种转型有利于提高企业产品的市场竞争力及西部大开发战略的实施等     

Estimation and testing of time-varying coefficient regression models in the presence of linear restrictions

A linear regression model with random walk coefficients is extended to allow for linear restrictions between the coefficients to be satisfied at each point in time. Estimation in this model is shown to be no more involved than estimation in the standard model. It is also demonstrated how, after a slight modification to the testing problem, classical test procedures may be applied to the problem of testing for such restrictions. The performance of the Lagrange Multiplier test for a variety of different restrictions is then investigated via simulation. An empirical application involving testing for homogeneity in a random walk coefficient version of the AIDS model is given.     

Seasonality in human sleep.

The timing of sleep and sleep EEG parameters in 10 healthy male subjects were investigated in four seasons under controlled conditions. The phase of nocturnal sleep was delayed about one and a half hours in winter as compared to that in summer. The duration of stage 4 sleep decreased and REM sleep increased significantly in winter compared with summer. The seasonality in the timing of sleep can be explained by photoperiodic time cues, but the changes in sleep EEG parameters are difficult to explain in terms of photoperiod.     

DNA fingerprinting transforms the art of cell authentication.

The increasing diversity of new cell cultures is seriously stretching the capabilities of traditional methods of identification. DNA fingerprinting is set to play an important role in increasing confidence in the authenticity of cultures in research and industry.     

Periodic paralysis in quarter horses: a sodium channel mutation disseminated by selective breeding.

We recently reported on a linkage study within a Quarter Horse lineage segregating hyperkalaemic periodic paralysis (HYPP), an autosomal dominant condition showing potassium-induced attacks of skeletal muscle paralysis. HYPP co-segregated with the equine adult skeletal muscle sodium channel alpha subunit gene, the same gene that causes human HYPP. We now describe the Phe to Leu mutation in transmembrane domain IVS3 which courses the horse disease. This represents the first application of molecular genetics to an important horse disease, and the data will provide an opportunity for control or eradication of this condition.     

单电极直流电弧炉电热特性理论研究

运用电磁理论与流体静压力原理,导出了电弧自身的电磁向心压缩力以及电弧对熔池冲力的解析式。又运用辐射传热原理,导出了单电极电弧对熔池与炉衬辐射传热的解析式。解析式揭示出电弧自身电磁向心压缩力、电弧对熔池冲力,单电极电弧对熔池以及对炉衬辐射传热的规律。