Forecasting of dependence,market, and investment risks of a global index portfolio

This paper undertakes an in-sample and rolling-window comparative analysis of dependence, market, and portfolio investment risks on a 10-year global index portfolio of developed, emerging, and commodity markets. We draw our empirical results by fitting vine copulas (e.g., r-vines, c-vines, d-vines), IGARCH(1,1) RiskMetrics value-at-risk (VaR), and portfolio optimization methods based on risk measures such as the variance, conditional value-at-risk, conditional drawdown-at-risk, minimizing regret (Minimax), and mean absolute deviation. The empirical results indicate that all international indices tend to correlate strongly in the negative tail of the return distribution; however, emerging markets, relative to developed and commodity markets, exhibit greater dependence, market, and portfolio investment risks. The portfolio optimization shows a clear preference towards the gold commodity for investment, while Japan and Canada are found to have the highest and lowest market risk, respectively. The vine copula analysis identifies symmetry in the dependence dynamics of the global index portfolio modeled. Large VaR diversification benefits are produced at the 95% and 99% confidence levels by the modeled international index portfolio. The empirical results may appeal to international portfolio investors and risk managers for advanced portfolio management, hedging, and risk forecasting.     

Diversity and dispersal history of the talitrids (Crustacea: Amphipoda: Talitridae) of Bermuda

Five taxa of talitrid amphipods were found in the archipelago of Bermuda, of which three were recorded there for the first time. Four of these are supralittoral wrack generalists: Platorchestia monodi BOLD:AAB3402, (a unique Molecular Operational Taxonomic Unit according to the Barcode Index Number system), a related species recognized by molecular methods, Platorchestia platensis BOLD:AAA2949, Mexorchestia carpenteri carpenteri BOLD:AAC1491 and Tethorchestia antillensis; and one a terrestrial leaf-litter generalist: Talitroides alluaudi. A key is provided to discriminate between the formally described talitrids of Bermuda. Dispersal mechanisms from the American continent to Bermuda were considered for all taxa based on species distributions along the North American Atlantic coast and also investigated by molecular methods, using genetic population differentiation and haplotype network analysis based on the barcode region of cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene. For P. monodi BOLD:AAB3402 the genetic results suggest that some dispersal events occurred before human colonization of Bermuda but are equivocal about the source population and therefore the direction of dispersal. Some very recent synanthropic dispersal is possible with this species. For the other two species studied genetically, P. platensis BOLD:AAA2949 and M. c. carpenteri BOLD:AAC1491, the small population samples analysed support dispersal to Bermuda from the American mainland, before human occupation of Bermuda, although the available sample size was limited for these species. The available limited direct, non-genetic evidence supports synanthropic transport for Talitroides alluaudi. Platorchestia monodi BOLD:AAB3402 is found in the same wrack habitat as P. platensis BOLD:AAA2949 on Bermuda, apparently without interbreeding. No evidence was found that driftwood specialist talitrids had become established in Bermuda.     

Baronia brevicornis caterpillars build shelters to avoid predation

In at least 18 Lepidoptera families, caterpillars build shelters that mainly serve to regulate microclimate (humidity, temperature) and/or to avoid predation. We aimed to explore the function of the tubular structures built with the leaves of the host plant, Acacia cochliacantha Humboldt and Bonpland ex Willdenow (Fabaceae), by a lepidopteran endemic to Mexico, Baronia brevicornis Salvin. We experimentally evaluated whether tubular structure building behaviour is induced by high temperature or predator odour, and if shelters reduce or enhance predation of B. brevicornis caterpillars. We used Calosoma angulatum as predator. Our analyses showed that caterpillars did not make the tubular structures in response to high temperature. We also found no difference in predators’ visual recognition of sheltered versus unsheltered caterpillars. Caterpillars did not build shelters but they moved more often when exposed to predator odour. Unsheltered caterpillars were more frequently consumed when predators were allowed to interact with sheltered and unsheltered caterpillars. Hence, the tubular structures built by B. brevicornis are most likely a strategy for reducing predation, for example by C. angulatum.     

Numerical Simulation of the COVID-19 Herd Immunity Based on Complex Network Modeling北大核心CSCD

鉴于构建流行病动力学模型、探索流行病传播规律对疫情防控具有十分重要的理论意义和实际应用价值,在已有的均匀混合模型基础上,针对个体接触关系异质化越发明显,且每个个体都处在不同的接触关系中,建立了兼顾个体状态与接触追踪的动态小世界网络模型。模拟了新冠病毒在社会中的传播过程。通过对比仿真结果,说明了所建模型的合理性。在此基础上,仿真计算了网络拓扑结构与接种免疫人数占比共同作用下对新冠病毒传播的影响,分析得到群体免疫临界值。说明所建传播模型合理,接种疫苗实现群体免疫可行。     

Immunological properties of oxygen-transport proteins: hemoglobin,hemocyanin and hemerythrin

It is now well documented that peptides with enhanced or alternative functionality (termed cryptides) can be liberated from larger, and sometimes inactive, proteins. A primary example of this phenomenon is the oxygen-transport protein hemoglobin. Aside from respiration, hemoglobin and hemoglobin-derived peptides have been associated with immune modulation, hematopoiesis, signal transduction and microbicidal activities in metazoans. Likewise, the functional equivalents to hemoglobin in invertebrates, namely hemocyanin and hemerythrin, act as potent immune effectors under certain physiological conditions. The purpose of this review is to evaluate the true extent of oxygen-transport protein dynamics in innate immunity, and to impress upon the reader the multi-functionality of these ancient proteins on the basis of their structures. In this context, erythrocyte–pathogen antibiosis and the immune competences of various erythroid cells are compared across diverse taxa.     

Phospholipid flippases attenuate LPS-induced TLR4 signaling by mediating endocytic retrieval of Toll-like receptor 4

P4-ATPases are lipid flippases that catalyze the transport of phospholipids to create membrane phospholipid asymmetry and to initiate the biogenesis of transport vesicles. Here we show, for the first time, that lipid flippases are essential to dampen the inflammatory response and to mediate the endotoxin-induced endocytic retrieval of Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) in human macrophages. Depletion of CDC50A, the β-subunit that is crucial for the activity of multiple P4-ATPases, resulted in endotoxin-induced hypersecretion of proinflammatory cytokines, enhanced MAP kinase signaling and constitutive NF-κB activation. In addition, CDC50A-depleted THP-1 macrophages displayed reduced tolerance to endotoxin. Moreover, endotoxin-induced internalization of TLR4 was strongly reduced and coincided with impaired endosomal MyD88-independent signaling. The phenotype of CDC50A-depleted cells was also induced by separate knockdown of two P4-ATPases, namely ATP8B1 and ATP11A. We conclude that lipid flippases are novel elements of the innate immune response that are essential to attenuate the inflammatory response, possibly by mediating endotoxin-induced internalization of TLR4.