Which survey indicators are useful for monitoring consumption? Evidence from European countries

This paper assesses the information content of two survey indicators for consumption developments in the near future for eight European countries in the period 1985–1998. Empirical work on this topic typically focuses on consumer confidence, the perceptions of buyers of consumption goods. This paper examines whether perceptions of sellers of consumption goods, measured by retail trade surveys, may also improve short‐term monitoring of consumption. We find that both consumer confidence and retailer confidence embody valuable information, when analysed in isolation. For France, Italy and Spain we conclude that adding retail confidence does not improve the indicator model once consumer confidence has been included. For the UK the reverse case is obtained. For the remaining four countries we show that combining consumer sentiment and retail trade confidence into a composite indicator leads to optimal results. Our results suggest that incorporating information from retail trade surveys may offer significant benefits for the analysis of short‐term prospects of consumption. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

计算复特征灵敏度的代数法

对于复特征灵敏度分析问题，文中给出了一种代数法求解公式。从理论分析的角度来说，所提出的方法既适全于单频，也适合于重频。为了说明算法的数值稳定性，文中给出了严格的数学证明。     

平面刚架稳定问题的一种非线性分析方法

本文构造了既体现轴压力又体现侧向位移与轴向位移耦合因素的杆单元刚度方程,借助叠代逼近法处理非线性问题,综合杆件有限元分析的简便性与非线性分析方法的严密性,对受有水平和竖直均布载荷的单层与多层刚架稳定问题进行了研究,计算结果反映了多种因素对刚架力学响应的影响,得出有益的分析结论。     

Estimation and testing of time-varying coefficient regression models in the presence of linear restrictions

A linear regression model with random walk coefficients is extended to allow for linear restrictions between the coefficients to be satisfied at each point in time. Estimation in this model is shown to be no more involved than estimation in the standard model. It is also demonstrated how, after a slight modification to the testing problem, classical test procedures may be applied to the problem of testing for such restrictions. The performance of the Lagrange Multiplier test for a variety of different restrictions is then investigated via simulation. An empirical application involving testing for homogeneity in a random walk coefficient version of the AIDS model is given.     

合成金属有机(高分子)铁磁体

本文介绍了纯有机(高分子)磁体及金属有机(高分子)磁体的种类、结构和发展慨况,并概述了近年来我们所合成的常温稳定二茂铁型有机(高分子)铁磁体及其应用前景.     

DNA fingerprinting transforms the art of cell authentication.

The increasing diversity of new cell cultures is seriously stretching the capabilities of traditional methods of identification. DNA fingerprinting is set to play an important role in increasing confidence in the authenticity of cultures in research and industry.     

Periodic paralysis in quarter horses: a sodium channel mutation disseminated by selective breeding.

We recently reported on a linkage study within a Quarter Horse lineage segregating hyperkalaemic periodic paralysis (HYPP), an autosomal dominant condition showing potassium-induced attacks of skeletal muscle paralysis. HYPP co-segregated with the equine adult skeletal muscle sodium channel alpha subunit gene, the same gene that causes human HYPP. We now describe the Phe to Leu mutation in transmembrane domain IVS3 which courses the horse disease. This represents the first application of molecular genetics to an important horse disease, and the data will provide an opportunity for control or eradication of this condition.     

Targeted disruption of the mouse transforming growth factor-beta 1 gene results in multifocal inflammatory disease.

Transforming growth factor-beta 1 (TGF-beta 1) is a multifunctional growth factor that has profound regulatory effects on many developmental and physiological processes. Disruption of the TGF-beta 1 gene by homologous recombination in murine embryonic stem cells enables mice to be generated that carry the disrupted allele. Animals homozygous for the mutated TGF-beta 1 allele show no gross developmental abnormalities, but about 20 days after birth they succumb to a wasting syndrome accompanied by a multifocal, mixed inflammatory cell response and tissue necrosis, leading to organ failure and death. TGF-beta 1-deficient mice may be valuable models for human immune and inflammatory disorders, including autoimmune diseases, transplant rejection and graft versus host reactions.