Prediction from the One‐Way Error Components Model with AR(1) Disturbances

In this paper we extend the works of Baillie and Baltagi (1999, in Analysis of Panels and Limited Dependent Variables Models, Hsiao C et al. (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK; 255–267) and generalize certain results from the Baltagi and Li (1992, Journal of Forecasting 11 : 561–567) paper accounting for AR(1) errors in the disturbance term. In particular, we derive six predictors for the one‐way error components model, as well as their associated asymptotic mean squared error of multi‐step prediction in the presence of AR(1) errors in the disturbance term. In addition, we also provide both theoretical and simulation evidence as to the relative efficiency of our alternative predictors. The adequacy of the prediction AMSE formula is also investigated by the use of Monte Carlo methods and indicates that the ordinary optimal predictor performs well for various accuracy criteria. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The nuclear envelope: emerging roles in development and disease

The chromosomes of eukaryotic cells are separated from the cytoplasm by the nuclear envelope. The nuclear envelope includes two riveted membranes, plus embedded pore complexes that mediate nuclear import and export. In this sense, the nuclear envelope is truly a border zone. However, the envelope also links directly to chromosomes, and anchors two major infrastructures--the nuclear lamina and Tpr filaments--to the nuclear perimeter. Proteins of the nuclear envelope mediate a variety of fundamental activities, including DNA replication, gene expression and silencing, chromatin organization, cell division, apoptosis, sperm nuclear remodeling, the behavior of pronuclei, cell fate determination, nuclear migration and cell polarity. Furthermore, mutations in nuclear lamins and lamin-binding proteins cause tissue-specific inherited diseases. This special issue of Cell and Molecular Life Sciences is devoted to recent major advances in the characterization of nuclear envelope proteins and their roles. We offer here an overview of the topics covered in this issue of CMLS, and also discuss the emerging recognition that the nuclear envelope is an organelle critical for a wide range of genetic and developmental activity in multicellular organisms.     

On a dynamic mixture GARCH model

This paper proposes a new mixture GARCH model with a dynamic mixture proportion. The mixture Gaussian distribution of the error can vary from time to time. The Bayesian Information Criterion and the EM algorithm are used to estimate the number of parameters as well as the model parameters and their standard errors. The new model is applied to the S&P500 Index and Hang Seng Index and compared with GARCH models with Gaussian error and Student's t error. The result shows that the IGARCH effect in these index returns could be the result of the mixture of one stationary volatility component with another non‐stationary volatility component. The VaR based on the new model performs better than traditional GARCH‐based VaRs, especially in unstable stock markets. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Genetic mapping with SNP markers in Drosophila.

Map-based positional cloning of Drosophila melanogaster genes is hampered by both the time-consuming, error-prone nature of traditional methods for genetic mapping and the difficulties in aligning the genetic and cytological maps with the genome sequence. The identification of sequence polymorphisms in the Drosophila genome will make it possible to map mutations directly to the genome sequence with high accuracy and resolution. Here we report the identification of 7,223 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and 1,392 insertions/deletions (InDels) in common laboratory strains of Drosophila. These sequence polymorphisms define a map of 787 autosomal marker loci with a resolution of 114 kb. We have established PCR product-length polymorphism (PLP) or restriction fragment-length polymorphism (RFLP) assays for 215 of these markers. We demonstrate the use of this map by delimiting two mutations to intervals of 169 kb and 307 kb, respectively. Using a local high-density SNP map, we also mapped a third mutation to a resolution of approximately 2 kb, sufficient to localize the mutation within a single gene. These methods should accelerate the rate of positional cloning in Drosophila.     

复杂网络的同步与复杂多个体系统的一致性

简要的回顾过去10年课题组在复杂网络的同步与复杂多个体系统的一致性研究方面的主要进展,同时展望该领域将来发展的趋势与挑战.     

Henderson‐Trending of Macroeconomic Variables and Forecasting Accuracy

Using a structural time‐series model, the forecasting accuracy of a wide range of macroeconomic variables is investigated. Specifically of importance is whether the Henderson moving‐average procedure distorts the underlying time‐series properties of the data for forecasting purposes. Given the weight of attention in the literature to the seasonal adjustment process used by various statistical agencies, this study hopes to address the dearth of literature on ‘trending’ procedures. Forecasts using both the trended and untrended series are generated. The forecasts are then made comparable by ‘detrending’ the trended forecasts, and comparing both series to the realised values. Forecasting accuracy is measured by a suite of common methods, and a test of significance of difference is applied to the respective root mean square errors. It is found that the Henderson procedure does not lead to deterioration in forecasting accuracy in Australian macroeconomic variables on most occasions, though the conclusions are very different between the one‐step‐ahead and multi‐step‐ahead forecasts. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characteristics of natal and non-natal kit fox dens in the northern Chihuahuan Desert

We studied kit fox den characteristics of the northern McGregor Range of Fort Bliss Military Reservation, New Mexico, during 1994 to 1995. Twenty radio-collared kit foxes used 132 different dens, including 16 natal dens. Kit fox dens were located primarily in creosote-dominated habitat found in relatively flat, well-drained terrain. Natal dens were virtually indistinguishable from non-natal dens; however, natal den entrances were taller than non-natal den entrances. Entrances found at all dens were oriented more frequently toward the northwest and southwest. Kit foxes used more dens during the breeding (January-February) and pup-rearing season (May-July) than during gestation.     

New synonymy and new species of American bark beetles (Coleoptera: Scolytidae), Part III

New synonomy is proposed as follows: Metacorthylus Blandford (= Paracorthylus Wood), Corthylus spinifer Schwarz (= Corthylus tomentosus Schedl), Cryptocarinus brevicollis Eggers ( = Cryptocarenus coronatus Wood), Dendrocranulus guatemalensis (Hopkins), n. comb. (= Dendrocranulus parallelus Schedl), Dendroterus mexicanus Blandford (= Conophthocranulus umbratus Schedl), Hypothenemus cylindricus (Hopkins) (= Hypothenemus guadeloupensis Schedl), Hypothenemus erectus LeConte (= Stephanoderes discedens Schedl), Hypothenemus javanus (Eggers) (= Stephanoderes pistor Schedl, Stephanoderes prosper Schedl), Xyleborus pseudotenuis Schedl (= Xyleborus tenuis Schedl), and Xyleborus villosulus Blandford (= Xyleborus coccotrypoides Eggers, villosus Schedl). Scolytodes punctiferus n. n. is proposed for Scolytodes punctifer Wood, 1971 (nec Wood 1969). The following species are named as new to science: Amphicranus argutus, A. fulgidus, A. micans, Pityophthorus inops, P. debilis, P. strictus. P. galeritus. P. sobrinus, P. laetus, P. lenis, P. conspectus P. medialis (Costa Rica), P. perexiguus (Costa Rica and Panama), P. scitulus (Panama), P. costatulus, P. costabilis, P. detentus, P. nebulosus, P. melanurus, P. indigens, P. burserae, P. molestus, P. diligens, P. corruptus (Mexico), P. tenax, P. nugalis, P. minutalis (Guatemala), P. nemoralis, P. morosus, P. hermosus (Honduras), Araptus gracilens (Mexico).     

New Astragalus (Leguminosae) from the Goose Creek Drainage, Utah - Nevada

A new species, Astragalus anserinus Atwood, Goodrich, & Welsh, is described from specimens taken from tuffaceous outcrops in the Goose Creek drainage of Box Elder County, Utah and Elko County Nevada.        

Names and types in perennial Atriplex Linnaeus (Chenopodiaceae) in North America selectively exclusive of Mexico

Cited are names and combinations within the woody species of Atriplex as they occur in North America. Types and their repositories are included for all taxa except those for which that information could not be located. New nomenclatural proposals include Atriplex gardneri var. aptera (A. Nelson) Welsh & Crompton, comb. nov.; A. garrettii var. navajoensis (C. A. Hanson) Welsh & Crompton, comb. nov.; Atriplex acanthocarpa var. coahuilensis (Henrickson) Welsh & Crompton, comb. nov. A lectotype is designated for A. breweri S. Watson.