Henderson‐Trending of Macroeconomic Variables and Forecasting Accuracy

Using a structural time‐series model, the forecasting accuracy of a wide range of macroeconomic variables is investigated. Specifically of importance is whether the Henderson moving‐average procedure distorts the underlying time‐series properties of the data for forecasting purposes. Given the weight of attention in the literature to the seasonal adjustment process used by various statistical agencies, this study hopes to address the dearth of literature on ‘trending’ procedures. Forecasts using both the trended and untrended series are generated. The forecasts are then made comparable by ‘detrending’ the trended forecasts, and comparing both series to the realised values. Forecasting accuracy is measured by a suite of common methods, and a test of significance of difference is applied to the respective root mean square errors. It is found that the Henderson procedure does not lead to deterioration in forecasting accuracy in Australian macroeconomic variables on most occasions, though the conclusions are very different between the one‐step‐ahead and multi‐step‐ahead forecasts. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The modernity of Dedekind’s anticipations contained in What are numbers and what are they good for?

Archive for History of Exact Sciences - We show that Dedekind, in his proof of the principle of definition by mathematical recursion, used implicitly both the concept of an inductive cone from an...     

Countering medical nihilism by reconnecting facts and values

A pessimistic strain of thought is fomenting in the health studies literature regarding the status of medicine. Ioannidis’s (2005) now famous finding that “most published research findings are false” and Stegenga’s (2018) book-length argument for medical nihilism are examples of this. In this paper, we argue that these positions are incorrect insofar as they rest on an untenable account of the nature of facts. Proper attention to fallibilism and the social organization of knowledge, as well as Bayesian probabilities in medical reasoning, prompt us to ask why the cynics expect the results of quantitative studies to be incontrovertibly true in the first place. While we agree with Ioannidis and others’ identified flaws in the medical research enterprise, and encourage rectification, we conclude that medical nihilism is not the natural outcome of the current state of research.     

Why eliminativism?

A central thesis of Steven French's brand of ontic structural realism has always been his eliminativism about objects. Unsurprisingly, this bold and controversial thesis has seen a lot of critical discussion. In his book The Structure of the World—Metaphysics & Representation, French accordingly defends this thesis against a range of challenges. A novel feature of this defense is the use of dependence relations to articulate his eliminativism. In this paper I take a critical look at French's defense of eliminativism and argue that the dependence relations invoked do not eliminate objects.     

Presumptive identification of aminoglycoside antibiotics by the pH susceptibility disc agar-diffusion method.

Using the pH (buffered) sensitivity discs for the agar-diffusion bioassay of aminoglycoside antibiotics, characteristic response curves were obtained. Since the nature of the activities observed are structure-related, this method can serve as a useful aid for primary identification of members of this class of antibiotics.     

Octopamine levels during the moult cycle and adult development in the migratory locust, Locusta migratoria.

Octopamine content of the head of the locust Locusta migratoria has been determined during the last larval stage, moulting and adult life of 3 groups of insects: female and male gregarious, solitary and CO2 solitarized. An important difference was found between these 3 groups. Octopamine contents increased in the middle of the larval life and during the adult life. The moulting time is characterized by a sharp decrease of the octopamine content which becomes identical in the 3 groups of insects. The relation between octopamine content, hormone cycles and motility is discussed.     

Age variation in the increase of hypothalamic and brain stem contents of phenylethanolamine m-octopamine and p-octopamine in spontaneously hypertensive rats (SH Kyoto).

Phenylethanolamine, m-octopamine and p-octopamine contents were determined as a function of age in the hypothalamus and brain stem of spontaneously hypertensive rats and controls Wistar Kyoto. In hypothalamus, the content of the 3 amines was 2--4-fold greater for the SH rats. In the brain stem, the phenylethanolamine and p-octopamine contents were 2--3-fold greater in SH rats but 5--6-fold higher in the case of m-octopamine. The difference appears at 3 weeks and correlates the blood pressure with the increase of age. The significance of these findings is discussed.     

Inhibition of the NADP-linked glutamate dehydrogenase from Trypanosoma cruzi by silver nitrate.

The purified NADP-linked glutamate dehydrogenase from Trypanosoma cruzi was strongly inhibited by silver nitrate. The inhibition was reversed by reduced glutathione, and was modified by the presence of the substrates during preincubation of the enzyme with the inhibitor.