Forecasting of dependence,market, and investment risks of a global index portfolio

This paper undertakes an in-sample and rolling-window comparative analysis of dependence, market, and portfolio investment risks on a 10-year global index portfolio of developed, emerging, and commodity markets. We draw our empirical results by fitting vine copulas (e.g., r-vines, c-vines, d-vines), IGARCH(1,1) RiskMetrics value-at-risk (VaR), and portfolio optimization methods based on risk measures such as the variance, conditional value-at-risk, conditional drawdown-at-risk, minimizing regret (Minimax), and mean absolute deviation. The empirical results indicate that all international indices tend to correlate strongly in the negative tail of the return distribution; however, emerging markets, relative to developed and commodity markets, exhibit greater dependence, market, and portfolio investment risks. The portfolio optimization shows a clear preference towards the gold commodity for investment, while Japan and Canada are found to have the highest and lowest market risk, respectively. The vine copula analysis identifies symmetry in the dependence dynamics of the global index portfolio modeled. Large VaR diversification benefits are produced at the 95% and 99% confidence levels by the modeled international index portfolio. The empirical results may appeal to international portfolio investors and risk managers for advanced portfolio management, hedging, and risk forecasting.     

Wolves in sheep’s clothing: three new cases of aggressive mimicry in Red Sea coral reef fishes

ABSTRACT

Here we document three cases of mimicry in coral reef fishes not previously reported in the literature involving two groupers (Epinephelus leucogrammicus and Plectropomus marisrubri) and a soapfish (Diploprion drachi) as mimics, and two wrasses (Larabicus quadrilineatus and Cheilinus quinquecinctus) and a blenny (Meiacanthus nigrolineatus) as models. All three cases are of aggressive mimicry, with a predatory species mimicking a harmless one, and in one of the cases, the mimicry is also Müllerian, where both the predator and harmless species are unpalatable.     

Diversity and dispersal history of the talitrids (Crustacea: Amphipoda: Talitridae) of Bermuda

Five taxa of talitrid amphipods were found in the archipelago of Bermuda, of which three were recorded there for the first time. Four of these are supralittoral wrack generalists: Platorchestia monodi BOLD:AAB3402, (a unique Molecular Operational Taxonomic Unit according to the Barcode Index Number system), a related species recognized by molecular methods, Platorchestia platensis BOLD:AAA2949, Mexorchestia carpenteri carpenteri BOLD:AAC1491 and Tethorchestia antillensis; and one a terrestrial leaf-litter generalist: Talitroides alluaudi. A key is provided to discriminate between the formally described talitrids of Bermuda. Dispersal mechanisms from the American continent to Bermuda were considered for all taxa based on species distributions along the North American Atlantic coast and also investigated by molecular methods, using genetic population differentiation and haplotype network analysis based on the barcode region of cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene. For P. monodi BOLD:AAB3402 the genetic results suggest that some dispersal events occurred before human colonization of Bermuda but are equivocal about the source population and therefore the direction of dispersal. Some very recent synanthropic dispersal is possible with this species. For the other two species studied genetically, P. platensis BOLD:AAA2949 and M. c. carpenteri BOLD:AAC1491, the small population samples analysed support dispersal to Bermuda from the American mainland, before human occupation of Bermuda, although the available sample size was limited for these species. The available limited direct, non-genetic evidence supports synanthropic transport for Talitroides alluaudi. Platorchestia monodi BOLD:AAB3402 is found in the same wrack habitat as P. platensis BOLD:AAA2949 on Bermuda, apparently without interbreeding. No evidence was found that driftwood specialist talitrids had become established in Bermuda.     

Creating Action Research Quality in Organization Development: Rigorous,Reflective and Relevant

The purpose of the paper is to present a framework that enables action researchers to create quality action research projects within the organization development (OD) domain using the broad criteria of being rigorous, reflective and relevant and so contribute to the realm of practical knowing. What constitutes good quality action research within OD is a difficult question, given the broad range of approaches that operates in a wide variety of settings and with great diversity. It advances specific dimensions by which action researchers can create, review and assess quality in action research work. This integrative framework and criteria are practical tools to enable action researchers to create quality action research in OD.     

Numerical Simulation of the COVID-19 Herd Immunity Based on Complex Network Modeling北大核心CSCD

鉴于构建流行病动力学模型、探索流行病传播规律对疫情防控具有十分重要的理论意义和实际应用价值,在已有的均匀混合模型基础上,针对个体接触关系异质化越发明显,且每个个体都处在不同的接触关系中,建立了兼顾个体状态与接触追踪的动态小世界网络模型。模拟了新冠病毒在社会中的传播过程。通过对比仿真结果,说明了所建模型的合理性。在此基础上,仿真计算了网络拓扑结构与接种免疫人数占比共同作用下对新冠病毒传播的影响,分析得到群体免疫临界值。说明所建传播模型合理,接种疫苗实现群体免疫可行。     

Immunological properties of oxygen-transport proteins: hemoglobin,hemocyanin and hemerythrin

It is now well documented that peptides with enhanced or alternative functionality (termed cryptides) can be liberated from larger, and sometimes inactive, proteins. A primary example of this phenomenon is the oxygen-transport protein hemoglobin. Aside from respiration, hemoglobin and hemoglobin-derived peptides have been associated with immune modulation, hematopoiesis, signal transduction and microbicidal activities in metazoans. Likewise, the functional equivalents to hemoglobin in invertebrates, namely hemocyanin and hemerythrin, act as potent immune effectors under certain physiological conditions. The purpose of this review is to evaluate the true extent of oxygen-transport protein dynamics in innate immunity, and to impress upon the reader the multi-functionality of these ancient proteins on the basis of their structures. In this context, erythrocyte–pathogen antibiosis and the immune competences of various erythroid cells are compared across diverse taxa.     

Film Use to Promote Understanding in Change and Diffusion of Innovation

The paper explores cinematic films as a pedagogical tool to promote critical thinking and student discussions in a doctoral-level learning, design, and technology seminar course at a major U.S. research university. These discussions focused on systemic change and systemic thinking concepts. The authors offer evidence from the literature that supports films’ power as a visual metaphor and neurocognitive stimulator to promote development of new perspectives in graduate students on case studies through articulation, reflection, and explanation of their thought processes on change and diffusion of innovation. There are theoretical, political, social, and technological issues that create tensions during any systemic change effort. The goal of using film in this seminar is to equip students with the requisite skills, theoretical frameworks, and interpersonal experiences needed to address these issues within organizations and communities. The change expected from systemic thinking is for students to think more deeply about the interconnectedness of systems and the importance of bottom-up change efforts that consider the perspective of all stakeholders.     

Phospholipid flippases attenuate LPS-induced TLR4 signaling by mediating endocytic retrieval of Toll-like receptor 4

P4-ATPases are lipid flippases that catalyze the transport of phospholipids to create membrane phospholipid asymmetry and to initiate the biogenesis of transport vesicles. Here we show, for the first time, that lipid flippases are essential to dampen the inflammatory response and to mediate the endotoxin-induced endocytic retrieval of Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) in human macrophages. Depletion of CDC50A, the β-subunit that is crucial for the activity of multiple P4-ATPases, resulted in endotoxin-induced hypersecretion of proinflammatory cytokines, enhanced MAP kinase signaling and constitutive NF-κB activation. In addition, CDC50A-depleted THP-1 macrophages displayed reduced tolerance to endotoxin. Moreover, endotoxin-induced internalization of TLR4 was strongly reduced and coincided with impaired endosomal MyD88-independent signaling. The phenotype of CDC50A-depleted cells was also induced by separate knockdown of two P4-ATPases, namely ATP8B1 and ATP11A. We conclude that lipid flippases are novel elements of the innate immune response that are essential to attenuate the inflammatory response, possibly by mediating endotoxin-induced internalization of TLR4.     

Advances in anti-viral immune defence: revealing the importance of the IFN JAK/STAT pathway

Interferon-alpha (IFN-α) is a potent anti-viral cytokine, critical to the host immune response against viruses. IFN-α is first produced upon viral detection by pathogen recognition receptors. Following its expression, IFN-α embarks upon a complex downstream signalling cascade called the JAK/STAT pathway. This signalling pathway results in the expression of hundreds of effector genes known as interferon stimulated genes (ISGs). These genes are the basis for an elaborate effector mechanism and ultimately, the clearance of viral infection. ISGs mark an elegant mechanism of anti-viral host defence that warrants renewed research focus in our global efforts to treat existing and emerging viruses. By understanding the mechanistic role of individual ISGs we anticipate the discovery of a new “treasure trove” of anti-viral mediators that may pave the way for more effective, targeted and less toxic anti-viral therapies. Therefore, with the aim of highlighting the value of the innate type 1 IFN response in our battle against viral infection, this review outlines both historic and recent advances in understanding the IFN-α JAK/STAT pathway, with a focus on new research discoveries relating to specific ISGs and their potential role in curing existing and future emergent viral infections.