Predicting Recessions with Factor Linear Dynamic Harmonic Regressions

We propose a new framework for building composite leading indicators for the Spanish economy using monthly targeted predictors and small‐scale dynamic factor models. Our leading indicator index, based on the low‐frequency components of four monthly economic variables, is able to predict the onset of the Spanish recessions as well as the gross domestic product (GDP) growth cycles and classical industrial production cycles, both historically and in real time. Also, our leading indicator provides substantial aid in forecasting annual and quarterly GDP growth rates. Using only real data available at the beginning of each forecast period, our indicator one‐step‐ahead forecasts shows substantial improvements over other alternatives. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于Visual C++的汽车同步带多轮传动参数化设计

针对汽车发动机用同步带多轮传动系统设计,编制了基于Visual C++的参数化设计程序,建立了多轮传动系统和同步带轮的三维模型,实现了设计资料中数表及其线图的程序化处理,提高了设计效率,通过对汽车同步带传动系统常规设计结果的比较,验证了程序的可行性及计算结果的正确性。     

Turing and the Serendipitous Discovery of the Modern Computer

In the centenary year of Turing’s birth, a lot of good things are sure to be written about him. But it is hard to find something new to write about Turing. This is the biggest merit of this article: it shows how von Neumann’s architecture of the modern computer is a serendipitous consequence of the universal Turing machine, built to solve a logical problem.     

物理教学中衍射物倾斜时的夫琅和费衍射研究

本文以矩形孔为例，给出了物体平面相对系统光轴倾斜时夫琅和费衍射场的理论计算。     

毕奥-萨伐尔定律是推迟效应忽略下的近似

本文论述毕奥－萨伐尔定律求出的磁场是运动电荷的推迟效应可以忽略下的磁场的近似     

基于随机模糊样本的统计学习理论基础

首先介绍了随机模糊理论的基本内容，进而证明了基于随机模糊样本的统计学习理论的关键定理，且讨论了学习过程一致收敛速度的界，为系统建立不确定样本的统计学习理论并构建相应的支持向量机奠定了理论基础．     

New Neotropical Haplothripini (Thysanoptera: Phlaeothripidae) with a key to Central and South American genera

The tribe Haplothripini includes a large diversity of Thysanoptera–Phlaeothripinae, comprising more than 550 species in about 35 genera. They are characterised by having a maxillary bridge in the head, prosternal basantra well developed and fore wings with a median constriction. Members of this group are present in all geographical regions, but are particularly poorly studied in Central and South America. In this study, we describe a new genus and species, Myrciathrips variabilis gen. et. sp. nov., and a new Haplothrips species; and propose two new combinations: Karnyothrips grassoi (De Santis), and Mirothrips vespicola (De Santis). A key to the nine Haplothripini genera now recognised from Central and South America is provided, together with an updated key to Haplothrips and Mirothrips species. A total of 45 species of Haplothripini are now recognised from Central and South America, and a list of these and their distributions is given. The genera Karnyothrips, Haplothrips and Leptothrips are the most commonly encountered, and some exotic species such as Androthrips ramachandrai and Dolichothrips indicus are now widespread in the Americas.     

Identification of Megaselia scalaris (Loew, 1866) (Diptera: Phoridae) in mummified human body from Itacambira (MG), Brazil,using scanning electron microscopy and cuticular hydrocarbons

Insect puparia were found adhered to the ribs and other tissues in the abdominal cavity of a natural male mummy found in Itacambira (State of Minas Gerais, Brazil) dating to the Colonial Period. They were collected for identification by scanning electron microscopy, and for comparison of several morphological features with those described in the literature. The puparia were found open and dorsoventrally flattened, making it difficult to visualize the dorsal projections. The tegument is covered by tapered spines and contains rows of small tubercles on the dorsal and lateral regions of the puparium. The posterior spiracle consists of four parallel openings arranged in pairs. These results are indicative that the specimens belong to the species Megaselia scalaris (Loew, 1866) (Diptera: Phoridae). Additionally, cuticular hydrocarbons of the puparia were analysed by gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry and compared with the profile of M. scalaris reared in the laboratory.