Bias‐corrected bootstrap prediction intervals for autoregressive model: new alternatives with applications to tourism forecasting

This paper proposes the use of the bias‐corrected bootstrap for interval forecasting of an autoregressive time series with an arbitrary number of deterministic components. We use the bias‐corrected bootstrap based on two alternative bias‐correction methods: the bootstrap and an analytic formula based on asymptotic expansion. We also propose a new stationarity‐correction method, based on stable spectral factorization, as an alternative to Kilian's method exclusively used in past studies. A Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to compare small‐sample properties of prediction intervals. The results show that the bias‐corrected bootstrap prediction intervals proposed in this paper exhibit desirable small‐sample properties. It is also found that the bootstrap bias‐corrected prediction intervals based on stable spectral factorization are tighter and more stable than those based on Kilian's stationarity‐correction. The proposed methods are applied to interval forecasting for the number of tourist arrivals in Hong Kong. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Triosephosphate isomerase: a highly evolved biocatalyst

Triosephosphate isomerase (TIM) is a perfectly evolved enzyme which very fast interconverts dihydroxyacetone phosphate and d-glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate. Its catalytic site is at the dimer interface, but the four catalytic residues, Asn11, Lys13, His95 and Glu167, are from the same subunit. Glu167 is the catalytic base. An important feature of the TIM active site is the concerted closure of loop-6 and loop-7 on ligand binding, shielding the catalytic site from bulk solvent. The buried active site stabilises the enediolate intermediate. The catalytic residue Glu167 is at the beginning of loop-6. On closure of loop-6, the Glu167 carboxylate moiety moves approximately 2 Å to the substrate. The dynamic properties of the Glu167 side chain in the enzyme substrate complex are a key feature of the proton shuttling mechanism. Two proton shuttling mechanisms, the classical and the criss-cross mechanism, are responsible for the interconversion of the substrates of this enolising enzyme.     

Jean Méry (1645–1722) and his ideas on the foetal blood flow

We present an analysis, and first full English translation, of a paper by Kant entitled ‘Über die Vulcane im Monde’ (1785). Kant became interested in the question of whether the mountains of the Moon were extinct volcanoes. Stimulated by the work of Herschel, Aepinus, and others, he considered the appearance of the Moon's surface and the possibility of lunar vulcanism. From this, he was led to consider the structures of mountain ranges on the Earth, which he decided were non-volcanic in origin, being produced by eruptions of vapours from the interior of the Earth soon after it formed from an original ‘chaos’. Kant developed his ideas in such a way as to yield a characteristic eighteenth-century ‘theory of the Earth’. We argue that the empirical base of his theory was provided by knowledge of the mountain ranges of Bohemia and Moravia. Analogies based on observations of the Moon further assisted in the construction of the theory. But the reasoning ran in two directions: what was seen on the Moon was construed in terms of what Kant knew of the Earth's topography; and the Earth's topography was presumed to be analogous to that of the Moon, for both the Earth and the Moon (and indeed all heavenly bodies) supposedly had essentially similar origins. Kant's ideas of 1785 are related to his earlier writings of 1754, 1755, and 1756, and also to the lectures on physical geography that he presented at Königsberg.     

Multiple paths to aquatic specialisation in four species of Central American Anolis lizards

Aquatic anoles present an interesting ecomorphological puzzle. On the one hand, the link between habitat use and morphology is well established as convergent within the Caribbean anole radiation. On the other hand, aquatic anoles do not appear to form an ecomorphological group – rather, it appears that there may be several ways to adapt to aquatic habitats. We explore this issue by examining the ecology, morphology and performance of four species of Central American aquatic anoles belonging to two different lineages. Overall, we find that aquatic anoles overlap in multiple ecological and morphological dimensions. However, we do find some differences in substrate use, claw and limb morphology, and bite force that distinguish Anolis aquaticus from the other three species (A. lionotus, A. oxylophus and A. poecilopus). Our results suggest that A. aquaticus is adapted to climb on boulders, whereas the other species utilise vegetation in streamside habitats.     

Parasite fauna of the grey mullet Mugil cephalus L. 1758, and its relationship with some ecological factors in Lower Kızılırmak Delta located by the Black Sea,Turkey

Parasites of the grey mullet Mugil cephalus collected from Lower K?z?l?rmak Delta in Turkey were investigated. Trichodina puytoraci, Trichodina lepsii, Ligophorus mediterraneus, Ligophorus cephali, Gyrodactylus sp., Microcotyle mugilis, Ascocotyle (Phagicola) longa, Haplosplanchnus pachysomus, Diplostomum spathaceum, Tylodelphys clavata, Posthodiplostomum sp., Neoechinorhyncus agilis and Ergasilus lizae were identified. Overall infection prevalence (%), mean intensity and mean abundance values were 99.61%, 458.10 ± 75.72 and 456.30 ± 75.44, respectively. Infection indices of parasite species in relation to season, lakes/lagoons and some physicochemical parameters of water such as temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen and nitrate are determined and discussed. Posthodiplostomum sp. is a new parasite record for mugilids and Diplostomum spathaceum is the first record in M. cephalus, in the present study. Moreover, Ligophorus mediterraneus, Ligophorus cephali and Ergasilus lizae are new records for Turkish parasite fauna of fish and Mugil cephalus is a new host record for Neoechinorhyncus agilis in Turkey.     

Neutrophil uptake of nitrogen-bisphosphonates leads to the suppression of human peripheral blood γδ T cells

Nitrogen-bisphosphonates (n-BP), such as zoledronate, are the main class of drugs used for the prevention of osteoporotic fractures and the management of cancer-associated bone disease. However, long-term or high-dose use has been associated with certain adverse drug effects, such as osteonecrosis of the jaw and the loss of peripheral of blood Vγ9Vδ2 T cells, which appear to be linked to drug-induced immune dysfunction. In this report we show that neutrophils present in human peripheral blood readily take up zoledronate, and this phenomenon is associated with the potent immune suppression of human peripheral blood Vγ9Vδ2 T cells. Furthermore, we found this zoledronate-mediated inhibition by neutrophils could be overcome to fully reconstitute Vγ9Vδ2 T cell proliferation by concomitantly targeting neutrophil-derived hydrogen peroxide, serine proteases, and arginase I activity. These findings will enable the development of targeted strategies to mitigate some of the adverse effects of n-BP treatment on immune homeostasis and to improve the success of immunotherapy trials based on harnessing the anticancer potential of peripheral blood γδ T cells in the context of n-BP treatment.