基于系统论事故分析模型的油气智慧管道系统信息物理风险辨识

为了辨识油气智慧管道系统中存在的信息安全风险,本文通过基于系统论事故分析模型(systems-theoretic accident modeling and process)的方法,对油气智慧管道系统的信息物理安全进行全面评估与分析。首先,系统综合分析了油气智慧管道涉及的设备、设施、工艺、元件,评估其安全性。其次,通过建立STAMP模型,深入分析了各层级、元件之间的反馈信息与控制动作,形成了明确的控制反馈回路,突显了元件之间的关联与控制关系。在此基础上,系统辨识出了潜在的信息风险因素,推导并构建了可能发生的系统失效场景。以天然气输气首站油气智慧管道系统为例,研究验证了基于STAMP模型的可行性和有效性。结果显示,该方法不仅直观地描述了元件之间的关联与控制关系,而且从物理层功能安全的角度全面考虑了信息风险,特别凸显了控制元件PCS(process control systems)及易受攻击的操作员站。与传统方法相比,本研究所提出的方法将信息物理安全风险因素的识别率提升至80%以上,提高了40%以上,有助于避免不必要的安全措施冗余设计,提高了安全风险管控的准确性。     

极端降雨对黄土沟壑区隧洞施工力学效应影响分析

黄土地区输水隧洞的建设中,降雨入渗极大影响着输水隧洞围岩稳定性。本文利用非饱和渗流理论和数值模拟方法研究了极端降雨条件入渗与黄土沟壑区隧洞的开挖扰动耦合影响下围岩的变形和渗流场演变规律,通过Plaxis3D模型对降雨入渗下新奥法施工过程中围岩力学特性、初期支护过程进行流固耦合分析。结果显示,降雨等级越高,围岩孔隙水压力变化幅度越大,对围岩的稳定性越不利;降雨入渗与开挖扰动会加速土层中渗流场和应力场的重分布过程;基于沟道的汇水特性,隧洞围岩含水率在最初5~10 d呈台阶式增长,拱顶、拱腰和拱趾处的最大变形为17.8 mm、28.2 mm、24.6 mm,最大剪切应力为175.3 kPa、182.5 kPa、150.6 kPa,降雨结束约15~20 d围岩变形速率逐渐减小收敛至特定值,但围岩的应力持续增加,为避免围岩发生塑性变形,故可在15~20 d进行二次衬砌支护。本次研究结果可对极端降雨期黄土沟壑地区隧洞施工安全控制提供参考。     

浅谈计算机专业选修课的教学方法

总结了笔者多在年计算机专业选修课的教学经验;介绍了计算机专业选修课教学中应该注意的问题,并着重探讨了学生创新思维能力的培养。     

鄂尔多斯盆地长4+52注水开发及其影响因素:以横山油田为例

为提高单井产量以及研究特低渗透油田注水开发的控制因素,实现油田稳产高产。通过动态数据,试油、试采等数据进行整理分析,利用正方形反九点法对横山油田麻地沟区长4+52油层亚组井网进行注水见效分析并对其影响因素进行分析。结果表明,油井见效分为明显见效、中等见效、微弱见效三种类型,分别占比为48.28%、41.38%、10.34%,见效方向主要以多向受效为主,其中在多向见效中又以五向见效为主。控制因素中主要有沉积微相、渗透率、井距三种,分流河道砂体发育,砂体越厚、连通性越好,油井越容易受效;油井注采见效程度好的,其渗透率也较好,渗透率越高,油井越容易受效;注采井距从150-300m都有分布,说明井距并不是影响注采见效的唯一因素,而且井距大小的选择与研究区砂体厚度、连通性及储层物性密切相关。     

考虑压敏效应的低渗透油藏CO2辅助重力驱合理配产方法

高倾角低渗透油藏在进行水驱开发时,在油藏高部位存在大量剩余油,采收率较低,采用CO2辅助重力驱,可以充分利用高倾角的地质特征,有效提高该类油藏的采出程度。但是由于CO2对原油物性影响要远大于水对原油物性的影响,CO2驱替过程中流体的渗流过程更加复杂,因此有必要对低渗透油藏CO2重力驱合理配产优化进行研究。首先,依据油藏中任意一点压力与最小混相压力的关系,分别建立了考虑压敏效应的低渗透油藏CO2重力驱混相和非混相模型;其次,运用Python对模型进行求解,同时分析了压敏系数、地层倾角、注采井距和注气速度对油藏配产的影响;最后,结合现有工作制度法和增产倍数法,对比本模型计算结果,运用tNavigtor软件对三种方法进行采收率预测。研究结果表明：运用本文方法对油藏进行合理配产具有较好的开发效果,油藏采收率相对较高,研究成果对该类低渗油藏的开发具有较好的借鉴意义。     

采动覆岩注浆离层力学结构模型及稳定性预测方法： 以张集煤矿为例

煤矿开采引发地表岩土层移动变形,进而导致建筑倒塌、生态环境破坏等问题,离层注浆是减缓地表沉降的重要手段之一。为了研究淮南矿区倾斜地层采动离层的发育和稳定性,基于关键层理论,建立由主关键层、注浆阻隔层、亚关键层组成的采动覆岩注浆离层力学结构模型,提出注浆离层稳定性力学判据。采用离散元数值模拟分别建立水平和倾斜地层模型,模拟煤层开采过程中裂隙演化规律及可注浆离层发育情况。结果表明,水平和倾斜地层导水裂隙均未贯通注浆阻隔层,主关键层底部均发育可注浆离层,水平地层可注浆离层开度比倾斜地层的开度更大。数值模拟证明采动覆岩注浆力学结构模型可以对采动离层稳定性进行有效预测。     

线性定常模糊随机系统的响应分析

证明了线性定常模糊随机系统的输出在均方意义下的收敛性,并给出了系统响应的模糊概率特征关系方程。     

Novel cued search strategy based on information gain for phased array radar

A search strategy based on the maximal information gain principle is presented for the cued search of phased array radars. First, the method for the determination of the cued search region, arrangement of beam positions, and the calculation of the prior probability distribution of each beam position is discussed. And then, two search algorithms based on information gain are proposed using Shannon entropy and Kullback-Leibler entropy, respectively. With the proposed strategy, the information gain of each beam position is predicted before the radar detection, and the observation is made in the beam position with the maximal information gain. Compared with the conventional method of sequential search and confirm search, simulation results show that the proposed search strategy can distinctly improve the search performance and save radar time resources with the same given detection probability.     

Fast motion estimation algorithm for H.264/AVC based on centered prediction

H.264/AVC video coding standard can achieve roughly half of the bit-savings over MPEG2 and MPEG4 for a given quality. However, this comes at a cost in considerably increased complexity at the encoder and thus increases the difficulty in hardware implementation. The high redundancy that exists between the successive frames of a video sequence makes it possible to achieve a high data compression ratio. Motion estimation (ME) plays an important role in motion compensated video coding. A fast motion estimation algorithm for H.264/AVC is proposed based on centered prediction, called centered prediction based fast mixed search algorithm (CPFMS). It makes use of the spatial and temporal correlation in motion vector (MV) fields and feature of all-zero blocks to accelerate the searching process. With the initialized searching point prediction, adaptive search window changing and searching direction decision, CPFMS is provided to reduce computation in block-matching process. The experimental results show that the speed of CPFMS is nearly 12 times of FS with a negligible peak signal-noise ratio (PSNR) loss. Also, the efficiency of CPFMS outperforms some popular fast algorithms such as hybrid unsymmetrical cross multi-hexagongrid search and a novel multidirectional gradient descent search evidently.     

作战武器任务规划仿真系统原型的开发

针对复杂虚拟战场环境下的联合作战仿真,设计出了一套仿真方案。利用建模软件Maya、人机交互仿真软件Virtools及程序开发语言C#,开发出了该方案的一个原型。原型采用了根据模型精细度建模、模块化程序设计等优化设计方法。程序运行结果表明,该原型具有模型文件量小、仿真视觉效果佳、程序运行流畅及程序可修改性、可重用性较好等特点,其针对武器装备的作战规划仿真结果为联合作战环境下武器装备的效能评估提供了依据。

Abstract：

A simulation scheme was designed aiming at joint operations simulation in the comprehensive virtual combat environment which developed the prototype of this scheme, with modeling software Maya, human-computer interaction designing software Virtools, program developing language C#. The prototype applied optimum design methods like modeling according to models＇ fineness, modular program designing and so on. Based on the program running results, the prototype possessed such good features as lightweight modeling, good visual effects, fluent program operation, better modifying and reusing properties, etc. The simulation results for weapon equipment mission planning provide reference to weapon equipment effectiveness evaluation in the joint operational environment.