Bayesian Assessment of Dynamic Quantile Forecasts

Bayesian methods for assessing the accuracy of dynamic financial value‐at‐risk (VaR) forecasts have not been considered in the literature. Such methods are proposed in this paper. Specifically, Bayes factor analogues of popular frequentist tests for independence of violations from, and for correct coverage of a time series of, dynamic quantile forecasts are developed. To evaluate the relevant marginal likelihoods, analytic integration methods are utilized when possible; otherwise multivariate adaptive quadrature methods are employed to estimate the required quantities. The usual Bayesian interval estimate for a proportion is also examined in this context. The size and power properties of the proposed methods are examined via a simulation study, illustrating favourable comparisons both overall and with their frequentist counterparts. An empirical study employs the proposed methods, in comparison with standard tests, to assess the adequacy of a range of forecasting models for VaR in several financial market data series. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The emergence and spread of dysentery

Shigella sonnei is an important cause of bacterial dysentery in the developed world and has also recently emerged in transitional countries. Phylogenetic analysis based on whole-genome sequencing of a global sample has detailed the recent evolutionary history of this pathogen and shed light on the genetic changes associated with this epidemiological shift.     

Glutamine deprivation initiates reversible assembly of mammalian rods and rings

Rods and rings (RR) are protein assemblies composed of cytidine triphosphate synthetase type 1 (CTPS1) and inosine monophosphate dehydrogenase type 2 (IMPDH2), key enzymes in CTP and GTP biosynthesis. Small-molecule inhibitors of CTPS1 or IMPDH2 induce RR assembly in various cancer cell lines within 15 min to hours. Since glutamine is an essential amide nitrogen donor in these nucleotide biosynthetic pathways, glutamine deprivation was examined to determine whether it leads to RR formation. HeLa cells cultured in normal conditions did not show RR, but after culturing in media lacking glutamine, short rods (<2 μm) assembled after 24 h, and longer rods (>5 μm) formed after 48 h. Upon supplementation with glutamine or guanosine, these RR underwent almost complete disassembly within 15 min. Inhibition of glutamine synthetase with methionine sulfoximine also increased RR assembly in cells deprived of glutamine. Taken together, our data support the hypothesis that CTP/GTP biosynthetic enzymes polymerize to form RR in response to a decreased intracellular level of glutamine. We speculate that rod and ring formation is an adaptive metabolic response linked to disruption of glutamine homeostasis.     

An asymmetric solar wind termination shock

Voyager 2 crossed the solar wind termination shock at 83.7 au in the southern hemisphere, approximately 10 au closer to the Sun than found by Voyager 1 in the north. This asymmetry could indicate an asymmetric pressure from an interstellar magnetic field, from transient-induced shock motion, or from the solar wind dynamic pressure. Here we report that the intensity of 4-5 MeV protons accelerated by the shock near Voyager 2 was three times that observed concurrently by Voyager 1, indicating differences in the shock at the two locations. (Companion papers report on the plasma, magnetic field, plasma-wave and lower energy particle observations at the shock.) Voyager 2 did not find the source of anomalous cosmic rays at the shock, suggesting that the source is elsewhere on the shock or in the heliosheath. The small intensity gradient of Galactic cosmic ray helium indicates that either the gradient is further out in the heliosheath or the local interstellar Galactic cosmic ray intensity is lower than expected.     

Peptido-aminobenzophenones-novel latentiated benzo-1,4-diazepines

Summary It has been shown that cleavage of the N-terminal L-amino acids of a novel series of dipeptide derivatives of 2-aminobenzophenones occurs readily in vivo to give benzo-1,4-diazepines. Such compounds may serve as useful pro-drug forms of minor tranquillizers such as Valium^®.