Methods for backcasting,nowcasting and forecasting using factor‐MIDAS: With an application to Korean GDP

We utilize mixed‐frequency factor‐MIDAS models for the purpose of carrying out backcasting, nowcasting, and forecasting experiments using real‐time data. We also introduce a new real‐time Korean GDP dataset, which is the focus of our experiments. The methodology that we utilize involves first estimating common latent factors (i.e., diffusion indices) from 190 monthly macroeconomic and financial series using various estimation strategies. These factors are then included, along with standard variables measured at multiple different frequencies, in various factor‐MIDAS prediction models. Our key empirical findings as follows. (i) When using real‐time data, factor‐MIDAS prediction models outperform various linear benchmark models. Interestingly, the “MSFE‐best” MIDAS models contain no autoregressive (AR) lag terms when backcasting and nowcasting. AR terms only begin to play a role in “true” forecasting contexts. (ii) Models that utilize only one or two factors are “MSFE‐best” at all forecasting horizons, but not at any backcasting and nowcasting horizons. In these latter contexts, much more heavily parametrized models with many factors are preferred. (iii) Real‐time data are crucial for forecasting Korean gross domestic product, and the use of “first available” versus “most recent” data “strongly” affects model selection and performance. (iv) Recursively estimated models are almost always “MSFE‐best,” and models estimated using autoregressive interpolation dominate those estimated using other interpolation methods. (v) Factors estimated using recursive principal component estimation methods have more predictive content than those estimated using a variety of other (more sophisticated) approaches. This result is particularly prevalent for our “MSFE‐best” factor‐MIDAS models, across virtually all forecast horizons, estimation schemes, and data vintages that are analyzed.     

The carcinofauna found in stomach contents of the flying gurnard (Dactylopterus volitans) on the continental shelf of the Campos Basin,Brazil

A total of 3109 crustaceans belonging to 50 taxa distributed in 42 families were found in 117 analysed stomachs of flying gurnard (Dactylopterus volitans). Samples were obtained in April 2008 by the R/V Gyre using a bottom trawl towed in 12 stations at 14–100 m depth on the continental shelf of the Campos Basin, Brazil. The carcinofauna was analysed and the order Calanoida (Copepoda) found to be the most important item in terms of relative abundance and frequency of occurrence, followed by the order Amphipoda (Peracarida), the infraorder Brachyura (Decapoda), the order Stomatopoda and the subclass Myodocopa (Ostracoda). In the order Calanoida, the species Pontellopsis cf. villosa (Pontellidae) represented 98.04% of total crustacean abundance. The diet of Dactylopterus volitans varied according to fish size, with higher diversity of Crustacea at smaller size classes, decreasing in larger fishes. A similar pattern regarding depth was obtained, with greater diversity of taxa in gurnard stomachs caught at shallower depths. Flying gurnard is considered a generalized carnivore of invertebrates, eating mobile macrobenthic organisms, such as crustaceans, and its diet varies with its life stage, without any specific group as its main food source.     

New findings of Hexalona-branch representatives in Brazil,with a description of Prenda gen. nov. (Crustacea: Anomopoda: Aloninae)

Altogether, Coronatella and Hexalona-branches are considered the main lineages of Aloninae – a subfamily of common bottom-dwelling microcrustaceans in freshwater environments. Although the taxonomic features of Brazilian members of the Hexalona-branch have been summarised for species from the costata-group and affinis-group, a revision of other widely distributed species in the world is still lacking in this country. The aim of this paper was to study the morphology of Brazilian populations from the guttata-group and intermedia-group, and to describe a new genus from the Hexalona-branch. The parthenogenetic females of Alona cf. guttata from Brazil have similar morphology when compared to data from the literature, but the armature of the terminal claw of its males seems to be different from those of Alona guttata sensu stricto, Alona barbulata and Alona werestschagini. The intermedia-group is formed by Alona elisae sp. nov., which seems to be endemic to the Cerrado of Brazil Central, and Alona isabellae sp. nov., which is widely distributed in Brazil; this species has a labral keel armed with 2–4 setulae, and postabdomen with setulae of lateral fascicles longer than the level of marginal denticles, morphological traits that differentiate it from Alona elisae sp. nov. Another endemic species from the Hexalona-branch is Prenda arvensis gen. nov. and sp. nov., which has two main head pores, a reduced seta on endite 1 of the first limb, sixth limb is a wide lobe. The potential of biodiversity from the Hexalona-branch from Brazil is still underestimated, and a global revision of the guttata-group and intermedia-group is very important for the progress of Aloninae taxonomy and systematics.

http://zoobank.org/urn:lsid:zoobank.org:pub:0A2E4A30-0C9C-43E8-8E72-1DEDA6AFF3C3     

Structural characterization of two papaya chitinases, a family GH19 of glycosyl hydrolases

Two chitinases, able to use tetra-N-acetylglucosamine, chitin and chitosan as substrates, were characterized after purification from Carica papaya latex. The complete amino acid sequence of the major form and about 40% of the minor one were determined through proteolytic digestions and mass spectroscopy analysis. Sequencing demonstrated that both papaya chitinases are members of the family 19 of glycosyl hydrolases (GH19). Based on the known 3-D structures of other members of family GH19, it was expected that papaya chitinases would adopt all-alpha structures. However, circular dichroism and infrared spectroscopy indicated, for the papaya chitinases, a content of 15–20% of extended structures besides the expected 40% of alpha helices. Since the fully sequenced papaya chitinase contains a large number of proline residues the possibility that papaya chitinase contains polyproline II stretches was examined in the context of their resistance against proteolytic degradation. Received 11 July 2006; received after revision 13 October 2006; accepted 25 October 2006     

Liver X receptors in cardiovascular and metabolic disease

Liver X receptors (LXRs) α and β are nuclear oxysterol receptors and metabolic sensors initially found to regulate cholesterol metabolism and lipid biosynthesis. Recent studies have elucidated the importance of LXR in the development of cardiovascular diseases and metabolic disorders. LXR agonists prevent development of atherosclerosis by modulation of metabolic as well as inflammatory gene expression in rodent models. Moreover, LXR activation inhibits hepatic gluconeogenesis and lowers serum glucose levels, indicating possible application of LXR activation in the treatment of diabetes mellitus. However, first-generation LXR agonists elevate hepatic and serum trigylceride levels, making subtype-specific agonists and selective LXR modulators rather than unselective LXR agonists a potential pharmacological strategy. This review summarizes the multiple physiological and pathophysiological implications of LXRs and observations that identify LXRs as potential targets for therapeutic interventions in human cardiovascular and metabolic disease. Received 30 August 2005; received after revision 10 October 2005; accepted 4 November 2005     

Galectin-7

Galectins are a family of animal lectins with an affinity for β-galactosides. They are differentially expressed by various tissues and appear to be functionally multivalent, exerting a wide range of biological activities both during development and in adult tissue. Galectin-7, a member of this family, contributes to different events associated with the differentiation and development of pluristratified epithelia. It is also associated with epithelial cell migration, which plays a crucial role in the re-epithelialization process of corneal or epidermal wounds. In addition, recent evidence indicates that galectin-7, designated as the product of the p53-induced gene 1 (PIG1), is a regulator of apoptosis through JNK activation and mitochondrial cytochrome c release. Defects in apoptosis constitute one of the major hallmarks of human cancers, and galectin-7 can act as either a positive or a negative regulatory factor in tumour development, depending on the histological type of the tumour. Received 30 October 2005; received after revision 15 November 2005; accepted 25 November 2005     

Expansion of amino acid homo-sequences in proteins: Insights into the role of amino acid homo-polymers and of the protein context in aggregation

Expansion of amino acid homo-sequences, such as polyglutamines or polyalanines, in proteins has been directly implicated in various degenerative diseases through a mechanism of protein misfolding and aggregation. However, it is still unclear how the nature of the expansion and the protein context influence the tendency of a protein to aggregate. Here, we have addressed these questions using spinocerebellar ataxia type-3 (ATX3) protein, the best characterised of the polyglutamine proteins, chosen as a model system. Using a transfected mammalian cell line, we demonstrate that ATX3 aggregation is noticeably reduced by deletion or replacement of regions other than the polyglutamine tract. The nature of the amino acid homo-sequences also has a strong influence on aggregation. From our studies, we draw general conclusions on the effect of the protein architecture and of the amino acid homo-sequence on pathology. Received 3 March 2006; received after revision 19 April 2006; accepted 22 May 2006     

Common loss-of-function variants of the epidermal barrier protein filaggrin are a major predisposing factor for atopic dermatitis

Atopic disease, including atopic dermatitis (eczema), allergy and asthma, has increased in frequency in recent decades and now affects approximately 20% of the population in the developed world. Twin and family studies have shown that predisposition to atopic disease is highly heritable. Although most genetic studies have focused on immunological mechanisms, a primary epithelial barrier defect has been anticipated. Filaggrin is a key protein that facilitates terminal differentiation of the epidermis and formation of the skin barrier. Here we show that two independent loss-of-function genetic variants (R510X and 2282del4) in the gene encoding filaggrin (FLG) are very strong predisposing factors for atopic dermatitis. These variants are carried by approximately 9% of people of European origin. These variants also show highly significant association with asthma occurring in the context of atopic dermatitis. This work establishes a key role for impaired skin barrier function in the development of atopic disease.     

Glycogen synthase kinase 3β and Alzheimer’s disease: pathophysiological and therapeutic significance

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disorder associated with cognitive and behavioral dysfunction and is the leading cause of dementia in the elderly. Several studies have implicated molecular and cellular signaling cascades involving the serine-threonine kinase, glycogen synthase kinase β(GSK-3β) in the pathogenesis of AD. GSK-3β may play an important role in the formation of neurofibrillary tangles and senile plaques, the two classical pathological hallmarks of AD. In this review, we discuss the interaction between GSK-3β and several key molecules involved in AD, including the presenilins, amyloid precursor protein, tau, and β-amyloid. We identify the signal transduction pathways involved in the pathogenesis of AD, including Wnt, Notch, and the PI3 kinase/Akt pathway. These may be potential therapeutic targets in AD. Received 19 December 2005; received after revision 24 January 2006; accepted 6 February 2006