Forecasting market potential and market penetration of residential water heater load control programs

This paper presents a model which estimates market potential and forecasts market penetration for one demand-side management (DSM) programwater heater load controlin the service territory of Virginia Power Corporation, a large electric utility in the south-eastern United States. Water heater load control is a voluntary program where customers are paid a monthly incentive to allow the utility to shut off power to their electric water heaters during periods of peak demand. Reducing the level of peak demand through DSM programs is one way for utilities to avoid building new power plants. The current total energy (or demand) impact due to a load control program is the sum of the changes in energy (or demand) for all program participants. The projected energy and demand impact due to a load control program is the average change per participant multiplied by the number of participants or adopters of the program. While it is reasonably straightforward to measure the energy savings resulting from shutting off power to a water heater, the more difficult task for planning purposes is forecasting the number of customers who will actually join the program (i.e. the market penetration) for a given incentive. The customer decision process is divided into three stages: eligibility, awareness, and adoption. The responsiveness of market penetration to changes in advertising and incentive amounts is demonstrated. In addition, the impact of changing advertising and incentive amounts on the percentage of aware customers who adopt the program and on that of eligible customers who become aware of the program is estimated. This model can be used by utility planners and managers to forecast the market penetration of both new and existing load control programs. In addition, it can be employed to estimate the impact of various promotion and marketing schemes on both market potential and market penetration.     

Structure of the C-terminal domain of FliG, a component of the rotor in the bacterial flagellar motor.

Many motile species of bacteria are propelled by flagella, which are rigid helical filaments turned by rotary motors in the cell membrane. The motors are powered by the transmembrane gradient of protons or sodium ions. Although bacterial flagella contain many proteins, only three-MotA, MotB and FliG-participate closely in torque generation. MotA and MotB are ion-conducting membrane proteins that form the stator of the motor. FliG is a component of the rotor, present in about 25 copies per flagellum. It is composed of an amino-terminal domain that functions in flagellar assembly and a carboxy-terminal domain (FliG-C) that functions specifically in motor rotation. Here we report the crystal structure of FliG-C from the hyperthermophilic eubacterium Thermotoga maritima. Charged residues that are important for function, and which interact with the stator protein MotA, cluster along a prominent ridge on FliG-C. On the basis of the disposition of these residues, we present a hypothesis for the orientation of FliG-C domains in the flagellar motor, and propose a structural model for the part of the rotor that interacts with the stator.     

Discovery of a cool planet of 5.5 Earth masses through gravitational microlensing

In the favoured core-accretion model of formation of planetary systems, solid planetesimals accumulate to build up planetary cores, which then accrete nebular gas if they are sufficiently massive. Around M-dwarf stars (the most common stars in our Galaxy), this model favours the formation of Earth-mass (M(o)) to Neptune-mass planets with orbital radii of 1 to 10 astronomical units (au), which is consistent with the small number of gas giant planets known to orbit M-dwarf host stars. More than 170 extrasolar planets have been discovered with a wide range of masses and orbital periods, but planets of Neptune's mass or less have not hitherto been detected at separations of more than 0.15 au from normal stars. Here we report the discovery of a 5.5(+5.5)(-2.7) M(o) planetary companion at a separation of 2.6+1.5-0.6 au from a 0.22+0.21-0.11 M(o) M-dwarf star, where M(o) refers to a solar mass. (We propose to name it OGLE-2005-BLG-390Lb, indicating a planetary mass companion to the lens star of the microlensing event.) The mass is lower than that of GJ876d (ref. 5), although the error bars overlap. Our detection suggests that such cool, sub-Neptune-mass planets may be more common than gas giant planets, as predicted by the core accretion theory.     

Exercise-induced BCL2-regulated autophagy is required for muscle glucose homeostasis

Exercise has beneficial effects on human health, including protection against metabolic disorders such as diabetes. However, the cellular mechanisms underlying these effects are incompletely understood. The lysosomal degradation pathway, autophagy, is an intracellular recycling system that functions during basal conditions in organelle and protein quality control. During stress, increased levels of autophagy permit cells to adapt to changing nutritional and energy demands through protein catabolism. Moreover, in animal models, autophagy protects against diseases such as cancer, neurodegenerative disorders, infections, inflammatory diseases, ageing and insulin resistance. Here we show that acute exercise induces autophagy in skeletal and cardiac muscle of fed mice. To investigate the role of exercise-mediated autophagy in vivo, we generated mutant mice that show normal levels of basal autophagy but are deficient in stimulus (exercise- or starvation)-induced autophagy. These mice (termed BCL2 AAA mice) contain knock-in mutations in BCL2 phosphorylation sites (Thr69Ala, Ser70Ala and Ser84Ala) that prevent stimulus-induced disruption of the BCL2-beclin-1 complex and autophagy activation. BCL2 AAA mice show decreased endurance and altered glucose metabolism during acute exercise, as well as impaired chronic exercise-mediated protection against high-fat-diet-induced glucose intolerance. Thus, exercise induces autophagy, BCL2 is a crucial regulator of exercise- (and starvation)-induced autophagy in vivo, and autophagy induction may contribute to the beneficial metabolic effects of exercise.     

No meridional plasma flow in the heliosheath transition region

Over a two-year period, Voyager 1 observed a gradual slowing-down of radial plasma flow in the heliosheath to near-zero velocity after April 2010 at a distance of 113.5 astronomical units from the Sun (1 astronomical unit equals 1.5?×?10(8) kilometres). Voyager 1 was then about 20 astronomical units beyond the shock that terminates the free expansion of the solar wind and was immersed in the heated non-thermal plasma region called the heliosheath. The expectation from contemporary simulations was that the heliosheath plasma would be deflected from radial flow to meridional flow (in solar heliospheric coordinates), which at Voyager?1 would lie mainly on the (locally spherical) surface called the heliopause. This surface is supposed to separate the heliosheath plasma, which is of solar origin, from the interstellar plasma, which is of local Galactic origin. In 2011, the Voyager project began occasional temporary re-orientations of the spacecraft (totalling about 10-25 hours every 2 months) to re-align the Low-Energy Charged Particle instrument on board Voyager?1 so that it could measure meridional flow. Here we report that, contrary to expectations, these observations yielded a meridional flow velocity of +3?±?11?km?s(-1), that is, one consistent with zero within statistical uncertainties.     

Open-reading-frame sequence tags (OSTs) support the existence of at least 17,300 genes in C. elegans

The genome sequences of Caenorhabditis elegans, Drosophila melanogaster and Arabidopsis thaliana have been predicted to contain 19,000, 13,600 and 25,500 genes, respectively. Before this information can be fully used for evolutionary and functional studies, several issues need to be addressed. First, the gene number estimates obtained in silico and not yet supported by any experimental data need to be verified. For example, it seems biologically paradoxical that C. elegans would have 50% more genes than Drosophilia. Second, intron/exon predictions need to be tested experimentally. Third, complete sets of open reading frames (ORFs), or "ORFeomes," need to be cloned into various expression vectors. To address these issues simultaneously, we have designed and applied to C. elegans the following strategy. Predicted ORFs are amplified by PCR from a highly representative cDNA library using ORF-specific primers, cloned by Gateway recombination cloning and then sequenced to generate ORF sequence tags (OSTs) as a way to verify identity and splicing. In a sample (n=1,222) of the nearly 10,000 genes predicted ab initio (that is, for which no expressed sequence tag (EST) is available so far), at least 70% were verified by OSTs. We also observed that 27% of these experimentally confirmed genes have a structure different from that predicted by GeneFinder. We now have experimental evidence that supports the existence of at least 17,300 genes in C. elegans. Hence we suggest that gene counts based primarily on ESTs may underestimate the number of genes in human and in other organisms.     

Measurement of stellar age from uranium decay

The ages of the oldest stars in the Galaxy indicate when star formation began, and provide a minimum age for the Universe. Radioactive dating of meteoritic material and stars relies on comparing the present abundance ratios of radioactive and stable nuclear species to the theoretically predicted ratios of their production. The radioisotope 232Th (half-life 14 Gyr) has been used to date Galactic stars, but it decays by only a factor of two over the lifetime of the Universe. 238U (half-life 4.5 Gyr) is in principle a more precise age indicator, but even its strongest spectral line, from singly ionized uranium at a wavelength of 385.957 nm, has previously not been detected in stars. Here we report a measurement of this line in the very metal-poor star CS31082-001, a star which is strongly overabundant in its heavy elements. The derived uranium abundance, log(U/H) = -13.7 +/- 0.14 +/- 0.12 yields an age of 12.5 +/- 3 Gyr, though this is still model dependent. The observation of this cosmochronometer gives the most direct age determination of the Galaxy. Also, with improved theoretical and laboratory data, it will provide a highly precise lower limit to the age of the Universe.