Beating the VAR: Improving Swedish GDP Forecasts Using Error and Intercept Corrections

This paper examines the forecast accuracy of an unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) model for GDP, relative to a comparable vector error correction model (VECM) that recognizes that the data are characterized by co‐integration. In addition, an alternative forecast method, intercept correction, is considered for further comparison. Recursive out‐of‐sample forecasts are generated for both models and forecast techniques. The generated forecasts for each model are objectively evaluated by a selection of evaluation measures and equal accuracy tests. The result shows that the VECM consistently outperforms the VAR models. Further, intercept correction enhances the forecast accuracy when applied to the VECM, whereas there is no such indication when applied to the VAR model. For certain forecast horizons there is a significant difference in forecast ability between the intercept corrected VECM compared to the VAR model. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

CCDC103 mutations cause primary ciliary dyskinesia by disrupting assembly of ciliary dynein arms

Cilia are essential for fertilization, respiratory clearance, cerebrospinal fluid circulation and establishing laterality. Cilia motility defects cause primary ciliary dyskinesia (PCD, MIM244400), a disorder affecting 1:15,000-30,000 births. Cilia motility requires the assembly of multisubunit dynein arms that drive ciliary bending. Despite progress in understanding the genetic basis of PCD, mutations remain to be identified for several PCD-linked loci. Here we show that the zebrafish cilia paralysis mutant schmalhans (smh(tn222)) encodes the coiled-coil domain containing 103 protein (Ccdc103), a foxj1a-regulated gene product. Screening 146 unrelated PCD families identified individuals in six families with reduced outer dynein arms who carried mutations in CCDC103. Dynein arm assembly in smh mutant zebrafish was rescued by wild-type but not mutant human CCDC103. Chlamydomonas Ccdc103/Pr46b functions as a tightly bound, axoneme-associated protein. These results identify Ccdc103 as a dynein arm attachment factor that causes primary ciliary dyskinesia when mutated.     

Genome-wide copy number variation study associates metabotropic glutamate receptor gene networks with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder

Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a common, heritable neuropsychiatric disorder of unknown etiology. We performed a whole-genome copy number variation (CNV) study on 1,013 cases with ADHD and 4,105 healthy children of European ancestry using 550,000 SNPs. We evaluated statistically significant findings in multiple independent cohorts, with a total of 2,493 cases with ADHD and 9,222 controls of European ancestry, using matched platforms. CNVs affecting metabotropic glutamate receptor genes were enriched across all cohorts (P = 2.1 × 10(-9)). We saw GRM5 (encoding glutamate receptor, metabotropic 5) deletions in ten cases and one control (P = 1.36 × 10(-6)). We saw GRM7 deletions in six cases, and we saw GRM8 deletions in eight cases and no controls. GRM1 was duplicated in eight cases. We experimentally validated the observed variants using quantitative RT-PCR. A gene network analysis showed that genes interacting with the genes in the GRM family are enriched for CNVs in ～10% of the cases (P = 4.38 × 10(-10)) after correction for occurrence in the controls. We identified rare recurrent CNVs affecting glutamatergic neurotransmission genes that were overrepresented in multiple ADHD cohorts.     

The coiled-coil domain containing protein CCDC40 is essential for motile cilia function and left-right axis formation

Primary ciliary dyskinesia (PCD) is a genetically heterogeneous autosomal recessive disorder characterized by recurrent infections of the respiratory tract associated with the abnormal function of motile cilia. Approximately half of individuals with PCD also have alterations in the left-right organization of their internal organ positioning, including situs inversus and situs ambiguous (Kartagener's syndrome). Here, we identify an uncharacterized coiled-coil domain containing a protein, CCDC40, essential for correct left-right patterning in mouse, zebrafish and human. In mouse and zebrafish, Ccdc40 is expressed in tissues that contain motile cilia, and mutations in Ccdc40 result in cilia with reduced ranges of motility. We further show that CCDC40 mutations in humans result in a variant of PCD characterized by misplacement of the central pair of microtubules and defective assembly of inner dynein arms and dynein regulatory complexes. CCDC40 localizes to motile cilia and the apical cytoplasm and is required for axonemal recruitment of CCDC39, disruption of which underlies a similar variant of PCD.     

Dense genotyping identifies and localizes multiple common and rare variant association signals in celiac disease

Using variants from the 1000 Genomes Project pilot European CEU dataset and data from additional resequencing studies, we densely genotyped 183 non-HLA risk loci previously associated with immune-mediated diseases in 12,041 individuals with celiac disease (cases) and 12,228 controls. We identified 13 new celiac disease risk loci reaching genome-wide significance, bringing the number of known loci (including the HLA locus) to 40. We found multiple independent association signals at over one-third of these loci, a finding that is attributable to a combination of common, low-frequency and rare genetic variants. Compared to previously available data such as those from HapMap3, our dense genotyping in a large sample collection provided a higher resolution of the pattern of linkage disequilibrium and suggested localization of many signals to finer scale regions. In particular, 29 of the 54 fine-mapped signals seemed to be localized to single genes and, in some instances, to gene regulatory elements. Altogether, we define the complex genetic architecture of the risk regions of and refine the risk signals for celiac disease, providing the next step toward uncovering the causal mechanisms of the disease.     

Common variation at 10p12.31 near MLLT10 influences meningioma risk

To identify susceptibility loci for meningioma, we conducted a genome-wide association study of 859 affected individuals (cases) and 704 controls with validation in two independent sample sets totaling 774 cases and 1,764 controls. We identified a new susceptibility locus for meningioma at 10p12.31 (MLLT10, rs11012732, odds ratio = 1.46, P(combined) = 1.88 × 10(-14)). This finding advances our understanding of the genetic basis of meningioma development.