Kant on anatomy and the status of the life sciences

This paper contributes to recent interest in Kant's engagement with the life sciences by focusing on one corner of those sciences that has received comparatively little attention: physical and comparative anatomy. By attending to remarks spread across Kant's writings, we gain some insight into Kant's understanding of the disciplinary limitations but also the methodological sophistication of the study of anatomy and physiology. Insofar as Kant highlights anatomy as a paradigmatic science guided by the principle of teleology in the Critique of the Power of Judgment, a more careful study of Kant's discussions of anatomy promises to illuminate some of the obscurities of that text and of his understanding of the life sciences more generally. In the end, it is argued, Kant's ambivalence with regard to anatomy gives way to a pessimistic conclusion about the possibility that anatomy, natural history, and, by extension, the life sciences more generally might one day become true natural sciences.     

Taming theory with thought experiments: Understanding and scientific progress

I claim that one way thought experiments contribute to scientific progress is by increasing scientific understanding. Understanding does not have a currently accepted characterization in the philosophical literature, but I argue that we already have ways to test for it. For instance, current pedagogical practice often requires that students demonstrate being in either or both of the following two states: 1) Having grasped the meaning of some relevant theory, concept, law or model, 2) Being able to apply that theory, concept, law or model fruitfully to new instances. Three thought experiments are presented which have been important historically in helping us pass these tests, and two others that cause us to fail. Then I use this operationalization of understanding to clarify the relationships between scientific thought experiments, the understanding they produce, and the progress they enable. I conclude that while no specific instance of understanding (thus conceived) is necessary for scientific progress, understanding in general is.     

Predation on eggs of Schneider’s dwarf caiman,Paleosuchus trigonatus (Schneider, 1807), by armadillos and other predators

Nests of Schneider’s dwarf caiman, Paleosuchus trigonatus, were located in the forests around three streams that drain into the Xingu River, Brazilian Amazonia, in October 2014. Camera traps were installed at the edge of four nests to document predators and female parental care. At two nests, females unsuccessfully defended their nests against one or more giant armadillos, Priodontes maximus, and nine-banded armadillos, Dasypus novemcinctus. Both armadillo species responded to the attack by fleeing and returning on the opposite side of the nest by going around the tree under which the nest was located. Giant armadillos have never before been recorded consuming caiman eggs and their diet has been described as consisting mostly of ants and termites. Another species of armadillo, Cabassous unicinctus, was also registered digging into a nest and probably consuming eggs, though it is generally considered to be primarily insectivorous. A tayra (Eira barbara), lizard (Tupinambis teguixin) and coati (Nasua nasua) were also registered taking eggs from nests during the day, but we obtained no registers of nest defence by caimans during the day. The three nests were attacked after 60 days of incubation, when the eggs were well developed.     

Cryptic and non-cryptic diversity in New Guinea ground snakes of the genus Stegonotus Duméril,Bibron and Duméril, 1854: a description of four new species (Squamata: Colubridae)

ABSTRACT

The island of New Guinea has been identified as biologically megadiverse but many taxa are still poorly known. This is especially the case for many of the island’s snakes, which by their very nature can be difficult to collect and study. Here we examine the phylogenetic and phylogeographic structure of a poorly studied snake genus, Stegonotus, focusing on the species of New Guinea; until now, Stegonotus has never been examined using modern phylogenetic methods. Using molecular data from 49 individuals representing eight of the ten described species, and including all New Guinea taxa, we estimate a multilocus phylogeny and examine population structure to help identify undescribed taxa. We use morphological data from the corresponding museum vouchered specimens (where available) and also examine additional specimens for taxa not included in the molecular data set to determine morphological differences among putative taxa. We find molecular evidence for four new species of Stegonotus, both morphologically obvious and cryptic, and describe them herein. The recognition of these four species indicates that Stegonotus diversity has been previously underestimated and also suggests that there are likely additional undescribed taxa within the genus. These four taxa increase the number of described species by 40% and further confirm New Guinea as the centre of diversity for the genus.

www.zoobank.org/urn:lsid:zoobank.org:pub:9E21390E-3FD4-40EB-9442-31BC92A76B4F     

Colonial ascidians from the Foveaux Strait region of New Zealand

Colonial ascidians collected from wharf piles and natural substrata from Bluff Harbour and Stewart Island in the South Island of New Zealand are described in this paper. Two species, Lissoclinum violaceum sp. nov. and Didemnum marineae sp. nov. are new to science and described for the first time. The ascidian fauna in this region is a mixed assemblage of southern species, species with a New Zealand-wide distribution, and two species with trans-Tasman affinities.

www.zoobank.org/urn:lsid:zoobank.org:pub:37DC0D4B-8FB9-4F1D-A5A0-E9CAB3203447     

Breeding biology of the Pale-bellied Tyrant-manakin Neopelma pallescens (Aves: Pipridae) in south-eastern Brazil

The Pale-bellied Tyrant-manakin (Neopelma pallescens) inhabits semi-deciduous and riparian forests in central-north South America. Contrary to most manakins, there is no evident sexual dichromatism in the species and little is known about its breeding biology. We studied the breeding biology of a colour-banded population of the species from August to December 2016 and from August to October 2017 in the Campus Florestal of the Universidade Federal de Viçosa, south-eastern Brazil. The breeding season extended from early September to late November. The species is promiscuous, with males exhibiting simple courtship displays (exploded leks) in individual arenas. The nest (n = 13) is a cup attached by its top lip between forked branches and is very simple, with a structural layer made with dry grass stems and heads, attached to the branch with spider silk. The outer and lining layers are absent. The mean clutch size was 1.8 eggs (n = 11), which are oval and pale coloured, covered with spots of different shades of brown, often concentrated in the larger pole. Mean egg length and width (± SD) were 21.0 ± 0.9 × 15.8 ± 0.7 mm (n = 14) and the mean weight was 2.8 ± 0.4 g (n = 10). The incubation period could not be estimated, but the nestling period was 15 days (n = 2). The simple percentage of successful nests was 15.4%, with 76.9% of the nests depredated and 7.7% abandoned. This is the first detailed study about the breeding biology of any Neopelma species, providing relevant data for the study of the evolution of life history strategies not only for the genus, but for the whole family Pipridae.     

Space use by two arboreal rodent species in a Neotropical cloud forest

Studying animal space use patterns can help increase our understating of ecological processes such as competition and community dynamics. To quantify space and habitat use in an isolated and patchy cloud forest community in Mexico, we evaluate the vertical stratification, home range and habitat selection of two arboreal rodents: Habromys schmidlyi and Reithrodontomys microdon. Using live-traps at ground level and different forest strata, we radio-equipped nine individuals of H. schmidlyi and seven of R. microdon, and evaluated fine-scale space use and broad-scale habitat selection between cloud forest and oak forest. We found an average home range of 0.24 ha for R. microdon males and 0.72 ha for females, with a preference for higher canopy in the cloud forest. For H. schmidlyi the home range was 0.83 ha for males and 0.29 ha for females, with a preference for the understory level in the cloud forest. Home range is three-dimensional for these rodents, so we estimate that on average, individuals of both species used eight trees in the time they were tracked. We characterised the vegetation at the trap sites, and used recursive partitioning to relate the presence of different plants with the probability of finding these two species and Peromyscus aztecus, a third rodent species also present in the area and considered in our analysis of habitat use. The highest probability of finding R. microdon (96%) was related to the presence of Brachythecium occidentale and Renauldia mexicana, while H. schmidlyi (95%) was found in close proximity to Fabronia ciliaris and Everniastrum. We highlight the importance of arboreal trapping in biodiversity assessments, and the role of arboreal rodents in maintaining tropical forest ecosystems. We suggest that these rodent species could avoid or reduce competition by using the vertical strata differentially, and that H. schmidlyi and R. microdon can be biological indicators for cloud forest management and conservation.     

On the Difficulty of Measuring Forecasting Skill in Financial Markets

The use of correlation between forecasts and actual returns is commonplace in the literature, often used as a measurement of investors' skill. A prominent application of this is the concept of the information coefficient (IC). Not only can the IC be used as a tool to rate analysts and fund managers but it also represents an important parameter in the asset allocation and portfolio construction process. Nevertheless, a theoretical understanding of it has typically been limited to the partial equilibrium context where the investing activities of each agent have no effect on other market participants. In this paper we show that this can be an undesirable oversimplification and we demonstrate plausible circumstances in which conventional empirical measurements of IC can be highly misleading. We suggest that improved understanding of IC in a general equilibrium setting can lead to refined portfolio decision making ex ante and more informative analysis of performance ex post. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection over the Business Cycle

Four methods of model selection—equally weighted forecasts, Bayesian model‐averaged forecasts, and two models produced by the machine‐learning algorithm boosting—are applied to the problem of predicting business cycle turning points with a set of common macroeconomic variables. The methods address a fundamental problem faced by forecasters: the most useful model is simple but makes use of all relevant indicators. The results indicate that successful models of recession condition on different economic indicators at different forecast horizons. Predictors that describe real economic activity provide the clearest signal of recession at very short horizons. In contrast, signals from housing and financial markets produce the best forecasts at longer forecast horizons. A real‐time forecast experiment explores the predictability of the 2001 and 2007 recessions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.