Forecasting the economic recession in the U.K. 1979-1982: A comparison of model-based ex ante Forecasts

This paper compares the forecasts of recession and recovery made by five non-government U.K. teams modelling the economy (Cambridge Econometrics, the London Business School, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, the Cambridge Economic Policy Group and the Liverpool Research Group). The paper concentrates on annual ex ante projections as published over the period 1978-1982, i.e. forecasts made, before the event, of the onset, length, depth and character of the economic recession in the U.K. which began in 1979. The comparison is in terms of year by year changes in production, unemployment, prices and other variables. It concludes that no group was systematically better or worse than other groups (confirming U.S. experience) and that the groups tended to perform better in their chosen areas of specialization, e.g. medium-term groups did better at forecasting the medium-term outcome.     

Structure of a phage 434 Cro/DNA complex

Comparison of the crystal structure of a complex of the phage 434 Cro protein and a synthetic DNA operator with the complex of the same operator and the 434 repressor DNA-binding domain shows different DNA conformations in the two structures. Binding of the protein determines the precise conformation of the DNA in each case.     

The decline and fate of an iron-induced subarctic phytoplankton bloom

Iron supply has a key role in stimulating phytoplankton blooms in high-nitrate low-chlorophyll oceanic waters. However, the fate of the carbon fixed by these blooms, and how efficiently it is exported into the ocean's interior, remains largely unknown. Here we report on the decline and fate of an iron-stimulated diatom bloom in the Gulf of Alaska. The bloom terminated on day 18, following the depletion of iron and then silicic acid, after which mixed-layer particulate organic carbon (POC) concentrations declined over six days. Increased particulate silica export via sinking diatoms was recorded in sediment traps at depths between 50 and 125 m from day 21, yet increased POC export was not evident until day 24. Only a small proportion of the mixed-layer POC was intercepted by the traps, with more than half of the mixed-layer POC deficit attributable to bacterial remineralization and mesozooplankton grazing. The depletion of silicic acid and the inefficient transfer of iron-increased POC below the permanent thermocline have major implications both for the biogeochemical interpretation of times of greater iron supply in the geological past, and also for proposed geo-engineering schemes to increase oceanic carbon sequestration.     

Stratified prokaryote network in the oxic-anoxic transition of a deep-sea halocline

The chemical composition of the Bannock basin has been studied in some detail. We recently showed that unusual microbial populations, including a new division of Archaea (MSBL1), inhabit the NaCl-rich hypersaline brine. High salinities tend to reduce biodiversity, but when brines come into contact with fresher water the natural haloclines formed frequently contain gradients of other chemicals, including permutations of electron donors and acceptors, that may enhance microbial diversity, activity and biogeochemical cycling. Here we report a 2.5-m-thick chemocline with a steep NaCl gradient at 3.3 km within the water column betweeen Bannock anoxic hypersaline brine and overlying sea water. The chemocline supports some of the most biomass-rich and active microbial communities in the deep sea, dominated by Bacteria rather than Archaea, and including four major new divisions of Bacteria. Significantly higher metabolic activities were measured in the chemocline than in the overlying sea water and underlying brine; functional analyses indicate that a range of biological processes is likely to occur in the chemocline. Many prokaryotic taxa, including the phylogenetically new groups, were confined to defined salinities, and collectively formed a diverse, sharply stratified, deep-sea ecosystem with sufficient biomass to potentially contribute to organic geological deposits.     

Structure of the repressor-operator complex of bacteriophage 434

The crystal structure of a specific complex between the DNA-binding domain of phage 434 repressor and a synthetic 434 operator DNA shows interactions that determine sequence-dependent affinity. The repressor recognizes its operators by its complementarity to a particular DNA conformation as well as by direct interaction with base pairs in the major groove.     

Infantile-onset symptomatic epilepsy syndrome caused by a homozygous loss-of-function mutation of GM3 synthase

We identified an autosomal recessive infantile-onset symptomatic epilepsy syndrome associated with developmental stagnation and blindness. Assuming a founder effect in a large Old Order Amish pedigree, we carried out a genome-wide screen for linkage and identified a single region of homozygosity on chromosome 2p12-p11.2 spanning 5.1 cM (maximum lod score of 6.84). We sequenced genes in the region and identified a nonsense mutation in SIAT9, which is predicted to result in the premature termination of the GM3 synthase enzyme (also called lactosylceramide alpha-2,3 sialyltransferase). GM3 synthase is a member of the sialyltransferase family and catalyzes the initial step in the biosynthesis of most complex gangliosides from lactosylceramide. Biochemical analysis of plasma glycosphingolipids confirmed that affected individuals lack GM3 synthase activity, as marked by a complete lack of GM3 ganglioside and its biosynthetic derivatives and an increase in lactosylceramide and its alternative derivatives. Although the relationship between defects in ganglioside catabolism and a range of lysosomal storage diseases is well documented, this is the first report, to our knowledge, of a disruption of ganglioside biosynthesis associated with human disease.