Forecasting Government Bond Yields with Neural Networks Considering Cointegration

This paper discusses techniques that might be helpful in predicting interest rates and tries to evaluate a new hybrid forecasting approach. Results of examining government bond yields in Germany and France reported in this study indicate that a hybrid forecasting approach which combines techniques of cointegration analysis with neural network (NN) forecasting models can produce superior results to the use of NN forecasting models alone. The findings documented in this paper could be a consequence of the fact that examining differenced data under certain conditions will lead to a loss of information and that the inclusion of the error correction term from the cointegration model can help to cope with this problem. The paper also discusses some possibly interesting directions for further research. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Common loss-of-function variants of the epidermal barrier protein filaggrin are a major predisposing factor for atopic dermatitis

Atopic disease, including atopic dermatitis (eczema), allergy and asthma, has increased in frequency in recent decades and now affects approximately 20% of the population in the developed world. Twin and family studies have shown that predisposition to atopic disease is highly heritable. Although most genetic studies have focused on immunological mechanisms, a primary epithelial barrier defect has been anticipated. Filaggrin is a key protein that facilitates terminal differentiation of the epidermis and formation of the skin barrier. Here we show that two independent loss-of-function genetic variants (R510X and 2282del4) in the gene encoding filaggrin (FLG) are very strong predisposing factors for atopic dermatitis. These variants are carried by approximately 9% of people of European origin. These variants also show highly significant association with asthma occurring in the context of atopic dermatitis. This work establishes a key role for impaired skin barrier function in the development of atopic disease.     

Heterogeneous Forecast Adjustment

There is ample empirical evidence that expert‐adjusted model forecasts can be improved. One way to potential improvement concerns providing various forms of feedback to the sales forecasters. It is also often recognized that the experts (forecasters) might not constitute a homogeneous group. This paper provides a data‐based methodology to discern latent clusters of forecasters, and applies it to a fully new large database with data on expert‐adjusted forecasts, model forecasts and realizations. For the data at hand, two clusters can clearly be identified. Next, the consequences of having clusters are discussed. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dominant missense mutations in ABCC9 cause Cantú syndrome

Cantú syndrome is characterized by congenital hypertrichosis, distinctive facial features, osteochondrodysplasia and cardiac defects. By using family-based exome sequencing, we identified a de novo mutation in ABCC9. Subsequently, we discovered novel dominant missense mutations in ABCC9 in 14 of the 16 individuals with Cantú syndrome examined. The ABCC9 protein is part of an ATP-dependent potassium (K(ATP)) channel that couples the metabolic state of a cell with its electrical activity. All mutations altered amino acids in or close to the transmembrane domains of ABCC9. Using electrophysiological measurements, we show that mutations in ABCC9 reduce the ATP-mediated potassium channel inhibition, resulting in channel opening. Moreover, similarities between the phenotype of individuals with Cantú syndrome and side effects from the K(ATP) channel agonist minoxidil indicate that the mutations in ABCC9 result in channel opening. Given the availability of ABCC9 antagonists, our findings may have direct implications for the treatment of individuals with Cantú syndrome.     

The genome of the extremophile crucifer Thellungiella parvula

Thellungiella parvula is related to Arabidopsis thaliana and is endemic to saline, resource-poor habitats, making it a model for the evolution of plant adaptation to extreme environments. Here we present the draft genome for this extremophile species. Exclusively by next generation sequencing, we obtained the de novo assembled genome in 1,496 gap-free contigs, closely approximating the estimated genome size of 140 Mb. We anchored these contigs to seven pseudo chromosomes without the use of maps. We show that short reads can be assembled to a near-complete chromosome level for a eukaryotic species lacking prior genetic information. The sequence identifies a number of tandem duplications that, by the nature of the duplicated genes, suggest a possible basis for T. parvula's extremophile lifestyle. Our results provide essential background for developing genomically influenced testable hypotheses for the evolution of environmental stress tolerance.     

Biology of HLA-G in cancer: a candidate molecule for therapeutic intervention?

Although the expression of the non-classical HLA class I molecule HLA-G was first reported to be restricted to the fetal–maternal interface on the extravillous cytotrophoblasts, the distribution of HLA-G in normal tissues appears broader than originally described. HLA-G expression was found in embryonic tissues, in adult immune privileged organs, and in cells of the hematopoietic lineage. More interestingly, under pathophysiological conditions HLA-G antigens may be expressed on various types of malignant cells suggesting that HLA-G antigen expression is one strategy used by tumor cells to escape immune surveillance. In this article, we will focus on HLA-G expression in cancers of distinct histology and its association with the clinical course of diseases, on the underlying molecular mechanisms of impaired HLA-G expression, on the immune tolerant function of HLA-G in tumors, and on the use of membrane-bound and soluble HLA-G as a diagnostic or prognostic biomarker to identify tumors and to monitor disease stage, as well as on the use of HLA-G as a novel therapeutic target in cancer.     

Beta-carotene affects gene expression in lungs of male and female <Emphasis Type="Italic">Bcmo1</Emphasis><Superscript>−/−</Superscript> mice in opposite directions

Molecular mechanisms triggered by high dietary beta-carotene (BC) intake in lung are largely unknown. We performed microarray gene expression analysis on lung tissue of BC supplemented beta-carotene 15,15′-monooxygenase 1 knockout (Bcmo1 ^−/−) mice, which are—like humans—able to accumulate BC. Our main observation was that the genes were regulated in an opposite direction in male and female Bcmo1 ^−/− mice by BC. The steroid biosynthetic pathway was overrepresented in BC-supplemented male Bcmo1 ^−/− mice. Testosterone levels were higher after BC supplementation only in Bcmo1 ^−/− mice, which had, unlike wild-type (Bcmo1 ^+/+) mice, large variations. We hypothesize that BC possibly affects hormone synthesis or metabolism. Since sex hormones influence lung cancer risk, these data might contribute to an explanation for the previously found increased lung cancer risk after BC supplementation (ATBC and CARET studies). Moreover, effects of BC may depend on the presence of frequent human BCMO1 polymorphisms, since these effects were not found in wild-type mice.     

Amplitudes, rates, periodicities and causes of temperature variations in the past 2485 years and future trends over the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau

Amplitudes, rates, periodicities, causes and future trends of temperature variations based on tree rings for the past 2485 years on the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau were analyzed. The results showed that extreme climatic events on the Plateau, such as the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and 20th Century Warming appeared synchronously with those in other places worldwide. The largest amplitude and rate of temperature change occurred during the Eastern Jin Event (343-425 AD), and not in the late 20th century. There were significant cycles of 1324 a, 800 a, 199 a, 110 a and 2-3 a in the 2485-year temperature series. The 1324 a, 800 a, 199 a and 110 a cycles are associated with solar activity, which greatly affects the Earth surface temperature. The long-term trends (>1000 a) of temperature were controlled by the millennium-scale cycle, and amplitudes were dominated by multi-century cycles. Moreover, cold intervals corresponded to sunspot minimums. The prediction indicated that the temperature will decrease in the future until to 2068 AD and then increase again.