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41.
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针对时间序列包含噪声以及单一模型可能存在预测表现不稳定的问题,本文提出了一个基于奇异谱分析(SSA)的集成预测模型,并将其运用于我国年度航空客运量的预测中.首先,采用SSA方法对原始时间序列进行分解和重构,得到一个剔除噪声的时间序列,然后将其作为单整自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)、支持向量回归模型(SVR)、Holt-Winters方法(HW)等单一模型的输入并进行预测,接着再采用加权平均集成预测方法(WA)将三种单一模型的预测结果进行综合集成.通过与各单一模型、基于经验模态分解方法(EMD)的模型以及简单平均集成预测方法(SA)的预测结果进行对比发现,本文所建模型具有较高的预测精度和较稳定的预测表现.最后,采用本文的模型对我国2014-2016年年度航空客运量进行了预测. 相似文献
43.
Mingliang Han 《系统科学与信息学报》2009,7(3):253-259
At present, most airlines adopted generally the same amount of compensa- tion strategy when needing to provide financial compensation to all flight delay passengers. However, due to the existence of differences in travel time value, ticket fare, as well as the expectation of compensation for flight delays, the gap between the effect of same amount of compensation and many passengers' (especially the high-value ones) expectations is large, it results in that airlines need to pay higher cost of compensation, but the total effect of compensation for passengers are not better. This paper advanced four financial com- pensation strategies for flight delays, summarized their own characteristics, and took into account the interests of both airlines and passengers, built the optimization models of the four financial compensation strategies under the restriction of the airline's compensation cost and on the goal of the maximum total effectiveness of the financial compensation to all passengers. Finally, based on the specific circumstances of the flight delays, the paper discussed the method for airline to choose the optimal financial compensation strategy through solving four models and comparing the compensation effectiveness. 相似文献
44.
Zhitao Xu X. G. Ming Wenyan Song Lina He Miao Li 《Systemic Practice and Action Research》2014,27(2):141-164
Quite often over the last decade, heavy equipment manufacturers are trying to improve their project management performance with the use of effective project management methods. However, the challenges encountered aren’t isolated problems and a systemic approach is required. This paper exemplifies how a systemic approach can be applied to heavy equipment manufacturing project (HEMP) management, through of a multifaceted vision. The findings present in the paper are based on a two-year case study in a metallurgic equipment manufacturing enterprise in China. Based on the analysis of HEMP management problems and the contributions on systemic approach application in project management, the paper enriches existing theory by: (1) interpreting the HEMP management system with the top-down disassembly method; (2) developing the collaborative project management approach with a systems view highlighting the project characteristics management and inter-departmental collaboration; (3) making suggestions for systemic approach application in project management. For practitioners and researchers, the findings are particularly meaningful for manufacturing project management and systemic approach application. 相似文献
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This paper is concerned with the optimal and suboptimal deconvolution problems for discrete-time systems with random delayed observations. When the random delay is known online, i.e., time stamped, the random delayed system is reconstructed as an equivalent delay-free one by using measurement reorganization technique, and then an optimal input white noise estimator is presented based on the stochastic Kahnan filtering theory. However, tb_e optimal white-noise estimator is timevarying, stochastic, and doesn't converge to a steady state in general. Then an alternative suboptimal input white-noise estimator with deterministic gains is developed under a new criteria. The estimator gain and its respective error covariance-matrix information are derived based on a new suboptimal state estimator. It can be shown that the suboptimal input white-noise estimator converges to a steady-state one under appropriate assumptions. 相似文献
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Stability analysis of the simplest Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy control system using circle criterion 下载免费PDF全文
A frequency-domain-based sufficient condition is derived to guarantee the globally asymptotic stability of the simplest Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy control system by using the circle criterion. The analysis is performed in the frequency domain, and hence the condition is of great significance when the frequency-response method, which is widely used in the linear control theory and practice, is employed to synthesize the simplest T-S fuzzy controller. Besides, this sufficient condition is featured by a graphical interpretation, which makes the condition straightforward to be used. Comparisons are drawn between the performance of the simplest T-S fuzzy controller and that of the linear compensator. Two numerical examples are presented to demonstrate how this sufficient condition can be applied to both stable and unstable plants. 相似文献
48.
提出了一种多路聚合型联合输入/交叉节点/输出排队(CICOQ)交换结构,并从理论上证明了当聚合路数等于2时,多路聚合型CICOQ交换结构无需加速即可通过分布式调度算法实现模拟采用任意调度算法的输出排队交换结构。最后从实现的角度给出了多路聚合型CICOQ交换结构的工程设计方案,并通过仿真对该方案的性能进行了验证。 相似文献
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通过对基层的设计、试验、施工等各个环节的控制,提高水泥稳定碎石基层的强度,控制其裂缝的产生,从而保证工程质量。 相似文献