基于奇异谱分析的我国航空客运量集成预测模型

针对时间序列包含噪声以及单一模型可能存在预测表现不稳定的问题,本文提出了一个基于奇异谱分析(SSA)的集成预测模型,并将其运用于我国年度航空客运量的预测中.首先,采用SSA方法对原始时间序列进行分解和重构,得到一个剔除噪声的时间序列,然后将其作为单整自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)、支持向量回归模型(SVR)、Holt-Winters方法(HW)等单一模型的输入并进行预测,接着再采用加权平均集成预测方法(WA)将三种单一模型的预测结果进行综合集成.通过与各单一模型、基于经验模态分解方法(EMD)的模型以及简单平均集成预测方法(SA)的预测结果进行对比发现,本文所建模型具有较高的预测精度和较稳定的预测表现.最后,采用本文的模型对我国2014-2016年年度航空客运量进行了预测.     

Models of Choosing the Financial Compensation Strategy for Flight Delay

At present, most airlines adopted generally the same amount of compensa- tion strategy when needing to provide financial compensation to all flight delay passengers. However, due to the existence of differences in travel time value, ticket fare, as well as the expectation of compensation for flight delays, the gap between the effect of same amount of compensation and many passengers＇ （especially the high-value ones） expectations is large, it results in that airlines need to pay higher cost of compensation, but the total effect of compensation for passengers are not better. This paper advanced four financial com- pensation strategies for flight delays, summarized their own characteristics, and took into account the interests of both airlines and passengers, built the optimization models of the four financial compensation strategies under the restriction of the airline＇s compensation cost and on the goal of the maximum total effectiveness of the financial compensation to all passengers. Finally, based on the specific circumstances of the flight delays, the paper discussed the method for airline to choose the optimal financial compensation strategy through solving four models and comparing the compensation effectiveness.     

考虑避灾心理和灾害影响的疏散仿真方法

在在灾害发生时,安全高效的疏散人群是提高公共安全的重要保障。因此有效可行的疏散仿真方法具有深刻的理论和现实意义。当前主流方法较少考虑与疏散相关的灾害动态演化,为此提出了DERR(Dynamic Evacuation Route Replanning Based on Psychology)方法。DERR方法围绕人群的避灾心理参数进行相关研究,利用A*寻路算法,实时根据灾害区的变化对人群的疏散路径重新规划和优化,以达到更加安全疏散的目的。通过仿真实验展示了本方法在灾害演化下的疏散模拟过程,同时心理避灾参数的加入也使得仿真结果更加贴合现实。     

微波接力组网的节点再优化研究

为进一步完善常规方法构建的微波接力网组网拓扑,提出了一种基于最优链路集的网络节点再优化方法。该方法综合考虑节点吸引系数、链路衰落概率、节点通信冗余等因素,借助网络拓扑优化的思想,采用遗传算法构造了微波接力网的最优链路集;以节点在该集合中的度为依据,通过对节点的合理排序,以部分用户节点代替非必要的干线节点,完善了组网拓扑。在修改链路和节点价值集后,该方法还可解决其他网络干线、中继节点的选择问题。     

基于模糊神经网络方法的新构造控水专家系统

在对大量野外地质资料统计和综合分析基础上，依据地质专家在新构造领域的理论知识和成功经验，运用模糊数学理论和神经网络理论相结合的方法，提出一种用线性单元并联实现非线性划分的神经元网络模型，并研制出相应具有较强推理能力和学习功能、广泛用于非定性系统数据处理的专家系统，该系统经实例验证具有较强的适用性。     

An interval method for studying the relationship between the Australian dollar exchange rate and the gold price

This paper proposes an interval method to explore the relationship between the exchange rate of Australian dollar against US dollar and the gold price,using weekly,monthly and quarterly data.With the interval method,interval sample data are formed to present the volatility of variables. The ILS approach is extended to multi-model estimation and the computational schemes are provided. The empirical evidence suggests that the ILS estimates well characterize how the exchange rate relates to the gold price,both in the long-run and short-run.The comparison between the interval and point methods indicates that the difference between the OLS and the ILS estimates is increasing from weekly data to quarterly data,since the lowest frequency point data lost the most information of volatility.     

Target estimation using MIMO radar with multiple subcarriers

This paper analyzes the effect of waveform parameters on the joint target location and velocity estimation by a noncoherent multiple input multiple output (MIMO) radar transmitting multiple subcarriers signals. How the number of subcarriers influences the estimation accuracy is illustrated by considering the joint Cramer-Rao bound and the mean square error of the maximum likelihood estimate. The non-coherent MIMO radar ambiguity function with multiple subcarriers is developed and investigated by changing the number of subcarriers, the pulse width and the frequency spacing between adjacent subcarriers. The numerical results show that more subcarriers mean more accurate estimates, higher localization resolution, and larger pulse width results in a worse performance of target location estimation, while the frequency spacing affects target location estimation little.     

松嫩平原海伦农区种植业与草食动物兼营规模及效益分析

根据松嫩平原农区特点,运用经济分析的方法,对国家农业攻关和重大项目海伦试验基地基点村－胜利村的种植业怀草食动物兼营户的经济效益、规模进行评估分析。在目前生产力水平下,松嫩平原农区兼户的经济效益普遍高于单一种植业户,其生产规模：种植业２ｈｍ＾２－４ｈｍ＾２养牛４－６头 。     

一类带缓冲区的连续生产过程的最速生产调度

研究了一类有分段式生产任务并带缓冲区域束的连续生产最早完工（Ｍａｋｅｓｐａｎ）指标调度问题,对积分形式约束和专注生产的约束进行有效转化,将原调度总理２转换为线性规划问题,仿真算表明了文中方法是可行的。     

基于递归算法的一类带缓冲区的混合生产调度

提出一种带缓冲区的混合生产的调度模型。通过缓冲区状态的扩展,将所建立的混合生产调度模型标准化,并在递归技术的基础上,利用混合整数规划方法求解,实例的仿真证明了本文方法的可行性与有效性。