Decision trees for forecasting

Recent years have seen an increasing cross-fertilization between the fields of decision analysis and forecasting. Decision-analytic models often require forecasts as inputs, and aspects of the Bayesian decision-theoretic framework underlying decision analysis have proved useful to forecasting, particularly in contexts where subjective judgemental inputs are required. This paper describes the use of decision tree analysis for forecasting and illustrates its use for corporate divisional forecasting and planning. A specialized decision-analytic technique, acts as events, is also described and illustrated to forecast a new product's earnings. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of decision analysis for forecasting.     

Indoxyl derivatives of drug metabolites

Summary Indoxyl derivatives were detected as minor products among the urinary metabolites of two trial drugs, a benzodiazepine (GP 55 129) and a benzophenone (CGP 11 952). Their structures were elucidated by NMR and mass spectroscopy. Presumably, metabolites containing potential aldehyde functions react spontaneously with endogenous indoxyl. Such derivatives have not hitherto been encountered in drug metabolism.     

地下感应式通信理论的研究

本文研究了地下矿井内,电波沿巷道内线缆传播的可行性及单线波模的传播与衰减规律,研究巷道内电小天线与线缆之间的耦合情况,从而为实际工作提供理论依据。     

新世纪图书馆员社会角色转换研究综述

就近几年图书馆界关于新世纪馆员意识转换及社会角色转换等方面的研究进行了综述，指出新时期的馆员要实现自我社会角色的转换，首先是要明确转换的必要性，然后采取有效的策略逐步地、系统地推进转换，才能取得较好的效果。     

Sound communication inNezara viridula (L.) (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae): Further evidence that signal transmission is substrate-borne

We investigated the sound communication associated with mating inNezara viridula (L.) to clarify conflicting reports on the medium through which acoustic signals are borne. Recordings made from virgin pairs ofN. viridula during precopulatory and compulatory behaviour have revealed that signals transmitted as vibrations through the substrate are a more likely means of communication than signals transmitted by a radiation of sound pressure waves through the air (at least in Australian populations). We present evidence (additional to that already in the literature) that air-borne acoustics are an unlikely mechanism of sexual communication in this species. Specifically, the recorded pulse train patterns showed no consistency or repeatability in relation to different stages of mating behaviour. In contrast, frequency spectrograms of substrate-borne signals reveal repeatable patterns that do correspond with the stage of mating behaviour.     

A latent class probit model for analyzing pick any/N data

A latent class probit model is developed in which it is assumed that the binary data of a particular subject follow a finite mixture of multivariate Bermoulli distributions. An EM algorithm for fitting the model is described and a Monte Carlo procedure for testing the number of latent classes that is required for adequately describing the data is discussed. In the final section, an application of the latent class probit model to some intended purchase data for residential telecommunication devices is reported. Geert De Soete is supported as “Bevoegdverklaard Navorser” of the Belgian “Nationaal Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek.”     

氧化物半导瓷中晶界势垒的起源

提出了一个关于氧化物半导瓷晶界势垒起源的新观点，认为晶界势垒起源于烧结过程中外界氧在晶界中的扩散，与材料的结构、化学缺陷、掺杂、外界气氛、烧结工艺、组成状态等有密切关系，并用此理论解释了许多实验现象。     

交织扩展Golay码编译码器实现方案的研究

论述了交织编码的工作原理，给出了一种交织扩展Ｇｏｌａｙ码的改进型软件设计方案，用ＴＭＳ３２０Ｃ２５实现了其编译码器并给出了模拟实验结果。实验结果表明，它能准确地纠正不大于７２比特位的差错；处理１２８×１２８×８比特位的一幅图像数据的运行时间为０．４１２ｓ．     

Aspirin-like drugs may block pain independently of prostaglandin synthesis inhibition

Summary Using flurbiprofen, a chiral anti-inflammatory and analgesic 2-arylpropionic acid derivative, the enantiomers of which are not converted to each other (less than 5%) in rats or man, we obtained evidence that prostaglandin synthesis inhibition is primarily mediating the anti-inflammatory activity but prostaglandin synthesis independent mechanisms contribute to the analgesic effects. Thus, the S-form inhibited prostaglandin synthesis, inflammation and nociception in rats. The R-form had much less effect on prostaglandin synthesis and did not affect inflammation. It did, however, block nociception in rats almost as potently as the S-form. S-flurbiprofen, in contrast to the R-form, was clearly ulcerogenic in the gastrointestinal mucosa. These results indicate additional molecular mechanisms of analgesia and suggest the use of R-arylpropionic acids as analgesics.     

激光开槽、埋槽电极硅太阳电池

报道一种新颖的激光开槽、埋槽电极硅太阳电池的结构、工艺流程及其研制结果。在ＡＭ１．５，２５℃，１００ｍＷ／ｃｍ２的条件下，以面积为４５ｃｍ３的３６片硅片研制的硅太阳电池的输出参数的平均值为ＪＳＣ＝３６．１ｍＡ／ｃｍ２，Ｖ∞＝６３３ｍＶ，Ｆ．Ｆ．＝０．７９８，η＝１８．２３％，最后分析了种高性能硅太阳电池的设计特点。