Exponential smoothing: The state of the art

This paper is a critical review of exponential smoothing since the original work by Brown and Holt in the 1950s. Exponential smoothing is based on a pragmatic approach to forecasting which is shared in this review. The aim is to develop state-of-the-art guidelines for application of the exponential smoothing methodology. The first part of the paper discusses the class of relatively simple models which rely on the Holt-Winters procedure for seasonal adjustment of the data. Next, we review general exponential smoothing (GES), which uses Fourier functions of time to model seasonality. The research is reviewed according to the following questions. What are the useful properties of these models? What parameters should be used? How should the models be initialized? After the review of model-building, we turn to problems in the maintenance of forecasting systems based on exponential smoothing. Topics in the maintenance area include the use of quality control models to detect bias in the forecast errors, adaptive parameters to improve the response to structural changes in the time series, and two-stage forecasting, whereby we use a model of the errors or some other model of the data to improve our initial forecasts. Some of the major conclusions: the parameter ranges and starting values typically used in practice are arbitrary and may detract from accuracy. The empirical evidence favours Holt's model for trends over that of Brown. A linear trend should be damped at long horizons. The empirical evidence favours the Holt-Winters approach to seasonal data over GES. It is difficult to justify GES in standard form–the equivalent ARIMA model is simpler and more efficient. The cumulative sum of the errors appears to be the most practical forecast monitoring device. There is no evidence that adaptive parameters improve forecast accuracy. In fact, the reverse may be true.     

Modulation of spectrin-actin assembly by erythrocyte adducin

The spectrin-based membrane skeleton, an assembly of proteins tightly associated with the plasma membrane, determines the shape and mechanical properties of erythrocytes. Spectrin, the most abundant component of this assembly, is an elongated and flexible molecule that, with potentiation by protein 4.1, is cross-linked at its ends by short actin filaments to form a lattice beneath the membrane. These and other proteins stabilize the plasma membrane, organize integral membrane proteins and maintain specialized regions of the cell surface. A membrane-skeleton-associated calmodulin-binding protein of erythrocytes is a major substrate for Ca2+- and phospholipid-dependent protein kinase C (ref. 5), and thus is a target for Ca2+ by two regulatory pathways. Here we demonstrate that this protein, called adducin: (1) binds tightly in vitro to spectrin-actin complexes but with much less affinity either to spectrin or to actin alone; (2) promotes assembly of additional spectrin molecules onto actin filaments; and (3) is inhibited in its ability to induce the binding of additional spectrin molecules to actin by micromolar concentrations of calmodulin and Ca2+. Adducin may be involved in the action of Ca2+ on erythrocyte membrane skeleton and in the assembly of spectrin-actin complexes.     

Unscheduled CDK1 activity in G1 phase of the cell cycle triggers apoptosis in X-irradiated lymphocytic leukemia cells

Cyclin-dependent kinase 1 (CDK1) is a major component of the cell cycle progression engine. Recently, several investigations provided evidence demonstrating that unscheduled CDK1 activation may also be involved in apoptosis in cancerous cells. In this article, we demonstrate that X-ray irradiation induced G1 arrest in MOLT-4 lymphocytic leukemia cells, the arrest being accompanied by reduction in the activity of CDK2, but increased CDK1 activity and cell apoptosis in the G1 phase. Interestingly, this increase in CDK1 and apoptosis by ionizing radiation was prevented by pretreatment with the CDK1 inhibitor, roscovitine, suggesting that CDK1 kinase activity is required for radiation-induced apoptotic cell death in this model system. Furthermore, cyclin B1 and CDK1 were detected co-localizing and associating in G1 phase MOLT-4 cells, with the cellular lysates from these cells revealing a genotoxic stress-induced increase in CDK1 phosphorylation (Thr-161) and dephosphorylation (Tyr-15), as analyzed by postsorting immunoprecipitation and immunoblotting. Finally, X-irradiation was found to increase Bcl-2 phosphorylation in G1 phase cells. Taken together, these novel findings suggest that CDK1 is activated by unscheduled accumulation of cyclin B1 in G1 phase cells exposed to X-ray, and that CDK1 activation, at the wrong time and in the wrong phase, may directly or indirectly trigger a Bcl-2-dependent signaling pathway leading to apoptotic cell death in MOLT-4 cells. Received 30 March 2006; received after revision 23 June 2006; accepted 24 August 2006 J. Wu and Y. Feng contributed equally to this work.     

A review of the electrophysiological, pharmacological and single channel properties of heart ventricle muscle cells in the snail Lymnaea stagnalis.

Although a considerable body of information has accumulated describing the pharmacological properties of a wide range of molluscan muscle types, the physiological bases underlying these properties have not been thoroughly investigated. At present, little is known about the types of ion channels and their regulation in molluscan muscle cell membranes. Voltage-clamp, and more recently, patch-clamp techniques have revealed molluscan muscles possess a complex array of channel types with various pharmacological and electrophysiological properties. The gating properties of these channels and their modulation by chemical agents, however, are still poorly understood. This review summarizes some aspects of molluscan muscle function with particular reference to the heart ventricle muscle of the pond snail, Lymnaea stagnalis.     

Retinal angiogenesis in development and disease

The retina has long been regarded as 'an approachable part of the brain' for investigating neurosensory processes. Cell biologists are now capitalizing on the accessibility of the retina to investigate important aspects of developmental angiogenesis, including how it relates to neuronal and glial development, morphogenesis, oxygen sensing and progenitor cells. Pathological angiogenesis also occurs in the retina and is a major feature of leading blinding diseases, particularly diabetic retinopathy. The retina and its clinical disorders have a pivotal role in angiogenesis research and provide model systems in which to investigate neurovascular relationships and angiogenic diseases.