Dynamics of seismogenic volcanic extrusion at Mount St Helens in 2004-05

The 2004-05 eruption of Mount St Helens exhibited sustained, near-equilibrium behaviour characterized by relatively steady extrusion of a solid dacite plug and nearly periodic shallow earthquakes. Here we present a diverse data set to support our hypothesis that these earthquakes resulted from stick-slip motion along the margins of the plug as it was forced incrementally upwards by ascending, solidifying, gas-poor magma. We formalize this hypothesis with a dynamical model that reveals a strong analogy between behaviour of the magma-plug system and that of a variably damped oscillator. Modelled stick-slip oscillations have properties that help constrain the balance of forces governing the earthquakes and eruption, and they imply that magma pressure never deviated much from the steady equilibrium pressure. We infer that the volcano was probably poised in a near-eruptive equilibrium state long before the onset of the 2004-05 eruption.     

Sm(Ⅲ)(BCB)3与DNA的相互作用机理

以中性红(NR)作探针,利用光谱法研究钐(Ⅲ)与灿烂甲酚蓝(BCB)形成的配合物Sm(Ⅲ)(BCB)3与鲱鱼精脱氧核糖核酸(DNA)的相互作用.研究结果表明Sm(Ⅲ)(BCB)3与鲱鱼精DNA结合比n(Sm(Ⅲ)(BCB)3)n(DNA)=41,其结合常数为2.30×105L/mol.Sm(Ⅲ)(BCB)3与鲱鱼精DNA之间的作用方式主要为沟槽作用方式,△rH☉m和△rS☉m都有利于Sm(Ⅲ)(BCB)3-DNA超分子复合物的形成,但主要影响因素是△rS☉m.     

Sex ratio adjustment and kin discrimination in malaria parasites

Malaria parasites and related Apicomplexans are the causative agents of the some of the most serious infectious diseases of humans, companion animals, livestock and wildlife. These parasites must undergo sexual reproduction to transmit from vertebrate hosts to vectors, and their sex ratios are consistently female-biased. Sex allocation theory, a cornerstone of evolutionary biology, is remarkably successful at explaining female-biased sex ratios in multicellular taxa, but has proved controversial when applied to malaria parasites. Here we show that, as predicted by theory, sex ratio is an important fitness-determining trait and Plasmodium chabaudi parasites adjust their sex allocation in response to the presence of unrelated conspecifics. This suggests that P. chabaudi parasites use kin discrimination to evaluate the genetic diversity of their infections, and they adjust their behaviour in response to environmental cues. Malaria parasites provide a novel way to test evolutionary theory, and support the generality and power of a darwinian approach.     

超声导波波包宽度与管材内径-壁厚比的关系

在自由管材的情况下,在各传播距离、各频厚积和各激发脉冲周数上,分析了内径-壁厚比和管材中较低阶纵向导波模式波包宽度的关系.分析结果表明:当内径-壁厚比较小时,内径-壁厚比的变化对各导波模式的波包宽度有较大影响,但随内径-壁厚比的增加,这种影响将减小;内径-壁厚比对导波波包宽度的影响随导波模式阶次的增加而减小.另一方面,对于不同内径-壁厚比的管材,检测中应当用不同的导波模式,所用的激发脉冲周数和频厚积也应当不同.     

摩托车曲柄花键冷挤刀具的设计

北方易初为了提高摩托车曲柄花键的生产率 ,从日本进口了冷挤机床及其冷挤刀具 ,该刀具价格昂贵 ,约为一万美元。该厂在近一年的国内调研中 ,还未找到能生产该刀具的厂家。本文就针对北方易初的摩托车曲柄花键 ,应用弹、塑性理论 ,有限元方法等来研究冷挤过程中的材料流动情况 ,塑性变形及弹性恢复 ,由此来确定刀具的齿数及每齿的形状尺寸等相关参数 ,设计并画出冷挤刀具的零件图。为能自行制造该类刀具提供有益的参考。     

Exponential smoothing: The state of the art

This paper is a critical review of exponential smoothing since the original work by Brown and Holt in the 1950s. Exponential smoothing is based on a pragmatic approach to forecasting which is shared in this review. The aim is to develop state-of-the-art guidelines for application of the exponential smoothing methodology. The first part of the paper discusses the class of relatively simple models which rely on the Holt-Winters procedure for seasonal adjustment of the data. Next, we review general exponential smoothing (GES), which uses Fourier functions of time to model seasonality. The research is reviewed according to the following questions. What are the useful properties of these models? What parameters should be used? How should the models be initialized? After the review of model-building, we turn to problems in the maintenance of forecasting systems based on exponential smoothing. Topics in the maintenance area include the use of quality control models to detect bias in the forecast errors, adaptive parameters to improve the response to structural changes in the time series, and two-stage forecasting, whereby we use a model of the errors or some other model of the data to improve our initial forecasts. Some of the major conclusions: the parameter ranges and starting values typically used in practice are arbitrary and may detract from accuracy. The empirical evidence favours Holt's model for trends over that of Brown. A linear trend should be damped at long horizons. The empirical evidence favours the Holt-Winters approach to seasonal data over GES. It is difficult to justify GES in standard form–the equivalent ARIMA model is simpler and more efficient. The cumulative sum of the errors appears to be the most practical forecast monitoring device. There is no evidence that adaptive parameters improve forecast accuracy. In fact, the reverse may be true.     

大众体育思潮冲击下足球策略调整研究

通过问卷调查发现，现代青年对体育项目的喜爱中反映出的相对应的体育文化类型，首先是在休闲的生活方式的锻炼中有所追求展示技艺的体育项目，在此基础上分析足球运动项目不被现代青年所钟爱的原因为：社会发展的必然趋势；足球自身的特点限制了它的大众化传播；我国足球事业发展缺乏大众化策略．最后相应给出了一些对策．     

身体素质引导课存在的问题与改进办法

每学期初的两次体育课,称为身体素质引导课较为适当.目前,这类课型存在着“运动负荷安排不合理“、“练习顺序安排不适当“等问题;改进的方法是:分析问题存在的根本原因,提高教师素质,强化教学管理.     

采用WD倒谱法分析人体肾组织的超声散射微结构特征

提出了一种对超声散射信号分析的新方法———WD倒谱法 .利用该方法对人体正常肾和肾肿瘤组织的回波信号进行分析 ,与用AR倒谱法所得结果进行了比较 .结果表明 ,两种肾组织散射子的平均间距明显不同 ,WD倒谱比AR倒谱更能反映软组织的微观结构特征 ,说明WD倒谱是软组织超声散射信号分析与软组织散射子平均间距定征的一种有效方法