Decision trees for forecasting

Recent years have seen an increasing cross-fertilization between the fields of decision analysis and forecasting. Decision-analytic models often require forecasts as inputs, and aspects of the Bayesian decision-theoretic framework underlying decision analysis have proved useful to forecasting, particularly in contexts where subjective judgemental inputs are required. This paper describes the use of decision tree analysis for forecasting and illustrates its use for corporate divisional forecasting and planning. A specialized decision-analytic technique, acts as events, is also described and illustrated to forecast a new product's earnings. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of decision analysis for forecasting.     

Indoxyl derivatives of drug metabolites

Summary Indoxyl derivatives were detected as minor products among the urinary metabolites of two trial drugs, a benzodiazepine (GP 55 129) and a benzophenone (CGP 11 952). Their structures were elucidated by NMR and mass spectroscopy. Presumably, metabolites containing potential aldehyde functions react spontaneously with endogenous indoxyl. Such derivatives have not hitherto been encountered in drug metabolism.     

新世纪图书馆员社会角色转换研究综述

就近几年图书馆界关于新世纪馆员意识转换及社会角色转换等方面的研究进行了综述，指出新时期的馆员要实现自我社会角色的转换，首先是要明确转换的必要性，然后采取有效的策略逐步地、系统地推进转换，才能取得较好的效果。     

The behavior of the homozygous and heterozygous sub-types of rats which are genetically-selected for diabetes insipidus: A comparison with Long Evans and Wistar stocks

Several aspects of spontaneous and conditioned behavior (food and water intake, locomotion and emotionality, passive and active avoidance acquisition and retention) of standard (albino and pigmented) rats, and rats heterozygous (HEDI) and homozygous (HODI) for diabetes insipidus, are reviewed. As would be expected, HODI rats have been repeatedly found to consume far more fluid than either HEDI or control rats. Pigmented rats appear to be more active than albinos. HODI rats exhibit less marked emotional responses than do control rats, among which the pigmented ones exhibit the highest emotionality. Light aversion is more evident in albino than in pigmented rats. No differences are found among HEDI, HODI and normal Long Evans rats. It is quite difficult to provide a clear-cut statement concerning inter-strain differences in passive avoidance behavior, possibly because of the variety of techniques employed. In any case, HODI rats do not perform worse than normal controls do. In one-way active avoidance paradigms, pigmented rats perform better than albinos, and the performance of HODI rats does not differ from that of controls. In two-way avoidance paradigms, albinos appear to outperform pigmented rats. Once again, there are no obvious differences between HODI and control animals.In addition to indicating that HODI rats may actually be less emotional than the other groups of rats reviewed here, the studies described once again fail to confirm the previously alleged functions of vasopressin in memory consolidation.     

Sound communication inNezara viridula (L.) (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae): Further evidence that signal transmission is substrate-borne

We investigated the sound communication associated with mating inNezara viridula (L.) to clarify conflicting reports on the medium through which acoustic signals are borne. Recordings made from virgin pairs ofN. viridula during precopulatory and compulatory behaviour have revealed that signals transmitted as vibrations through the substrate are a more likely means of communication than signals transmitted by a radiation of sound pressure waves through the air (at least in Australian populations). We present evidence (additional to that already in the literature) that air-borne acoustics are an unlikely mechanism of sexual communication in this species. Specifically, the recorded pulse train patterns showed no consistency or repeatability in relation to different stages of mating behaviour. In contrast, frequency spectrograms of substrate-borne signals reveal repeatable patterns that do correspond with the stage of mating behaviour.     

MeV Pb离子在非晶Si中的射程离散──离子束混合和增强扩散的影响

１．０ＭｅＶ２０８Ｐｂ离子在非晶Ｓｉ中的投影射程ＲＰ和射程偏差ΔＲＰ作为注量和温度二者的函数用背散射法进行测定．注量的变化范围为５×１０１３～７×１０１４ｃｍ－２．注入是在室温和ｔ＝－１２０℃下完成的．由由实验所确定的投影射程，射程偏差与注量或温度无关，并且分别等于２９５和７２．２ｎｍ．与ＴＲＩＭ８６的计算结果相比较，发现ＲＰ的偏离为１８％，而ΔＲＰ的偏离为３６％．ＲＰ和ΔＲＰ二者与注量及温度的无关性，排除了所观察到的与ＴＲＩＭ的矛盾是由于注入期间辐射增强扩散或离子束混合效应而引起的解释。     

Aspirin-like drugs may block pain independently of prostaglandin synthesis inhibition

Summary Using flurbiprofen, a chiral anti-inflammatory and analgesic 2-arylpropionic acid derivative, the enantiomers of which are not converted to each other (less than 5%) in rats or man, we obtained evidence that prostaglandin synthesis inhibition is primarily mediating the anti-inflammatory activity but prostaglandin synthesis independent mechanisms contribute to the analgesic effects. Thus, the S-form inhibited prostaglandin synthesis, inflammation and nociception in rats. The R-form had much less effect on prostaglandin synthesis and did not affect inflammation. It did, however, block nociception in rats almost as potently as the S-form. S-flurbiprofen, in contrast to the R-form, was clearly ulcerogenic in the gastrointestinal mucosa. These results indicate additional molecular mechanisms of analgesia and suggest the use of R-arylpropionic acids as analgesics.     

A small GTP-binding protein dissociates from synaptic vesicles during exocytosis.

Low-molecular-weight GTP-binding proteins are strong candidates for regulators of membrane traffic. In yeast, mutations in the sec4 or ypt1 genes encoding small GTP-binding proteins inhibit constitutive membrane flow at the plasma membrane or Golgi complex, respectively. It has been suggested that membrane fusion-fission events are regulated by cycling of small GTP-binding proteins between a membrane-bound and free state, but although most of these small proteins are found in both soluble and tightly membrane-bound forms, there is no direct evidence to support such cycling. In rat brain a small GTP-binding protein, rab3A, is exclusively associated with synaptic vesicles, the secretory organelles of nerve terminals. Here we use isolated nerve terminals to study the fate of rab3A during synaptic vesicle exocytosis. We find that rab3A dissociates quantitatively from the vesicle membrane after Ca2(+)-dependent exocytosis and that this dissociation is partially reversible during recovery after stimulation. These results are direct evidence for an association-dissociation cycle of a small GTP-binding protein during traffic of its host membrane.