Prediction from the One‐Way Error Components Model with AR(1) Disturbances

In this paper we extend the works of Baillie and Baltagi (1999, in Analysis of Panels and Limited Dependent Variables Models, Hsiao C et al. (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK; 255–267) and generalize certain results from the Baltagi and Li (1992, Journal of Forecasting 11 : 561–567) paper accounting for AR(1) errors in the disturbance term. In particular, we derive six predictors for the one‐way error components model, as well as their associated asymptotic mean squared error of multi‐step prediction in the presence of AR(1) errors in the disturbance term. In addition, we also provide both theoretical and simulation evidence as to the relative efficiency of our alternative predictors. The adequacy of the prediction AMSE formula is also investigated by the use of Monte Carlo methods and indicates that the ordinary optimal predictor performs well for various accuracy criteria. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Genetic mapping with SNP markers in Drosophila.

Map-based positional cloning of Drosophila melanogaster genes is hampered by both the time-consuming, error-prone nature of traditional methods for genetic mapping and the difficulties in aligning the genetic and cytological maps with the genome sequence. The identification of sequence polymorphisms in the Drosophila genome will make it possible to map mutations directly to the genome sequence with high accuracy and resolution. Here we report the identification of 7,223 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and 1,392 insertions/deletions (InDels) in common laboratory strains of Drosophila. These sequence polymorphisms define a map of 787 autosomal marker loci with a resolution of 114 kb. We have established PCR product-length polymorphism (PLP) or restriction fragment-length polymorphism (RFLP) assays for 215 of these markers. We demonstrate the use of this map by delimiting two mutations to intervals of 169 kb and 307 kb, respectively. Using a local high-density SNP map, we also mapped a third mutation to a resolution of approximately 2 kb, sufficient to localize the mutation within a single gene. These methods should accelerate the rate of positional cloning in Drosophila.     

Henderson‐Trending of Macroeconomic Variables and Forecasting Accuracy

Using a structural time‐series model, the forecasting accuracy of a wide range of macroeconomic variables is investigated. Specifically of importance is whether the Henderson moving‐average procedure distorts the underlying time‐series properties of the data for forecasting purposes. Given the weight of attention in the literature to the seasonal adjustment process used by various statistical agencies, this study hopes to address the dearth of literature on ‘trending’ procedures. Forecasts using both the trended and untrended series are generated. The forecasts are then made comparable by ‘detrending’ the trended forecasts, and comparing both series to the realised values. Forecasting accuracy is measured by a suite of common methods, and a test of significance of difference is applied to the respective root mean square errors. It is found that the Henderson procedure does not lead to deterioration in forecasting accuracy in Australian macroeconomic variables on most occasions, though the conclusions are very different between the one‐step‐ahead and multi‐step‐ahead forecasts. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characteristics of natal and non-natal kit fox dens in the northern Chihuahuan Desert

We studied kit fox den characteristics of the northern McGregor Range of Fort Bliss Military Reservation, New Mexico, during 1994 to 1995. Twenty radio-collared kit foxes used 132 different dens, including 16 natal dens. Kit fox dens were located primarily in creosote-dominated habitat found in relatively flat, well-drained terrain. Natal dens were virtually indistinguishable from non-natal dens; however, natal den entrances were taller than non-natal den entrances. Entrances found at all dens were oriented more frequently toward the northwest and southwest. Kit foxes used more dens during the breeding (January-February) and pup-rearing season (May-July) than during gestation.     

Temperature-mediated changes in seed dormancy and light requirement for Penstemon palmeri (Scrophulariaceae)

Penstemon palmeri is a short-lived perennial herb colonizing disturbed sites in semiarid habitats in the western USA. In this study seed was harvested from six native and four seeded populations during two consecutive years. In laboratory germination trials at constant 15 C, considerable between-lot variation in primary dormancy and light requirement was observed. Four weeks of moist chilling (1 C) induced secondary dormancy at 15 C. Cold-induced secondary dormancy was reversed by one week of dark incubation at 30 C. This warm incubation treatment also reduced the light requirement of unchilled, after-ripened seed. Fluctuations in dormancy and light requirement of buried seeds have been linked to seasonal changes in soil temperature. Penstemon palmeri germination responses to temperature appear to be similar to those of facultative winter annuals.     

Atomic structure holography using thermal neutrons.

The idea of atomic-resolution holography has its roots in the X-ray work of Bragg and in Gabor's electron interference microscope. Gabor's lensless microscope was not realized in his time, but over the past twelve years there has been a steady increase in the number of reports on atomic-resolution holography. All of this work involves the use of electrons or hard X-rays to produce the hologram. Neutrons are often unique among scattering probes in their interaction with materials: for example, the relative visibility of hydrogen and its isotopes is a great advantage in the study of polymers and biologically relevant materials. Recent work proposed that atomic-resolution holography could be achieved with thermal neutrons. Here we use monochromatic thermal neutrons, adopting the inside-source concept of Sz?ke, to image planes of oxygen atoms located above and below a single hydrogen atom in the oxide mineral simpsonite.     

Reproductive pair correlations and the clustering of organisms.

Clustering of organisms can be a consequence of social behaviour, or of the response of individuals to chemical and physical cues. Environmental variability can also cause clustering: for example, marine turbulence transports plankton and produces chlorophyll concentration patterns in the upper ocean. Even in a homogeneous environment, nonlinear interactions between species can result in spontaneous pattern formation. Here we show that a population of independent, random-walking organisms ('brownian bugs'), reproducing by binary division and dying at constant rates, spontaneously aggregates. Using an individual-based model, we show that clusters form out of spatially homogeneous initial conditions without environmental variability, predator-prey interactions, kinesis or taxis. The clustering mechanism is reproductively driven-birth must always be adjacent to a living organism. This clustering can overwhelm diffusion and create non-poissonian correlations between pairs (parent and offspring) or organisms, leading to the emergence of patterns.