Unobserved components in ARCH models: An application to seasonal adjustment

The paper deals with unobserved components in ARIMA models with GARCH errors, in the context of an actual application, namely seasonal adjustment of the monthly Spanish money supply series. The series shows clear evidence of (moderate) non-linearity, which does not disappear with simple outlier correction. The GARCH structure explains reasonably well the non-linearity, and this explanation is robust with respect to the GARCH specification. We look at the time variation of the standard error of the adjusted series estimator and show how it can be measured. Next, we look at the implications this variation has on short-term monetary control. The non-linearity seems to have a small effect in practice. It is further seen that the conditional variance of the GARCH process may, in turn, be decomposed into components. In fact, the conditional variance of the money supply series is the sum of a weak linear trend, a strong non-linear seasonal component, and a moderate non-linear irregular component. This information has policy implications: for example, there are periods in the year when policy can be more assertive because information is more precise. Finally, looking at the non-linear components of the money supply it is seen how linear combinations of non-linear series can produce series that behave linearly.     

Shift-contagion in energy markets and global crisis

This paper presents an analysis of shift-contagion in energy markets, testing whether linkages between returns in energy markets increase during crisis periods. The research presented herein demonstrates how common movement between energy markets increases due to (i) shift-contagion across energy markets, reflected by structural transmission of shocks across markets and (ii) larger common shocks operating through standard cross-market interdependences. A regime-switching model was developed to detect shift-contagion across energy markets. In the approach adopted herein, the occurrence of shift-contagion is endogenously estimated rather than being exogenously assigned. The results show that shift-contagion has been a major feature of energy markets over the last decade. Evidence is presented which demonstrates that the linkages between energy markets do not appear to be stable. These results are remarkably accurate for forecasting Brent and natural gas for horizons for up to 50 days. Conversely, for WTI (West Texas Intermediate oil) and coal, the model performs well only for forecasting very short horizons (up to 20 days). For all products, the model shows significant biases for long horizons.     

Diversity in enoyl-acyl carrier protein reductases

The enoyl-acyl carrier protein reductase (ENR) is the last enzyme in the fatty acid elongation cycle. Unlike most enzymes in this essential pathway, ENR displays an unusual diversity among organisms. The growing interest in ENRs is mainly due to the fact that a variety of both synthetic and natural antibacterial compounds are shown to specifically target their activity. The primary anti-tuberculosis drug, isoniazid, and the broadly used antibacterial compound, triclosan, both target this enzyme. In this review, we discuss the diversity of ENRs, and their inhibitors in the light of current research progress. Received 3 November 2008; received after revision 5 December 2008; accepted 8 December 2008     

Cellular mechanisms responsible for cell-to-cell spreading of prions

Prions are infectious agents that cause fatal neurodegenerative diseases. Current evidence indicates that they are essentially composed of an abnormally folded protein (PrP^Sc). These abnormal aggregated PrP^Sc species multiply in infected cells by recruiting and converting the host PrP^C protein into new PrP^Sc. How prions move from cell to cell and progressively spread across the infected tissue is of crucial importance and may provide experimental opportunity to delay the progression of the disease. In infected cells, different mechanisms have been identified, including release of infectious extracellular vesicles and intercellular transfer of PrP^Sc-containing organelles through tunneling nanotubes. These findings should allow manipulation of the intracellular trafficking events targeting PrP^Sc in these particular subcellular compartments to experimentally address the relative contribution of these mechanisms to in vivo prion pathogenesis. In addition, such information may prompt further experimental strategies to decipher the causal roles of protein misfolding and aggregation in other human neurodegenerative diseases.     

Maternal eating behavior is a major synchronizer of fetal and postnatal peripheral clocks in mice

Most living organisms show circadian rhythms in physiology and behavior. These oscillations are generated by endogenous circadian clocks, present in virtually all cells where they control key biological processes. To study peripheral clocks in vivo, we developed an original model, the Rev-Luc mouse to follow noninvasively and longitudinally Rev-Luc oscillations in peripheral clocks using in vivo bioluminescence imaging. We found in vitro and in vivo a robust diurnal rhythm of Rev-Luc, mainly in liver, intestine, kidney and adipose tissues. We further confirmed in vivo that Rev-Luc peripheral tissues are food-entrainable oscillators, not affected by age or sex. These data strongly support the relevance of the Rev-Luc model for circadian studies, especially to investigate in vivo the establishment and the entrainment of the rhythm throughout ontogenesis. We then showed that Rev-Luc expression develops dynamically and gradually, both in amplitude and in phase, during fetal and postnatal development. We also demonstrate for the first time that the immature peripheral circadian system of offspring in utero is mainly entrained by maternal cues from feeding regimen. The prenatal entrainment will also differentially determine the Rev-Luc expression in pups before weaning underlining the importance of the maternal chrononutrition on the circadian system entrainment of the offspring.     

Breeding biology of the Pale-bellied Tyrant-manakin Neopelma pallescens (Aves: Pipridae) in south-eastern Brazil

The Pale-bellied Tyrant-manakin (Neopelma pallescens) inhabits semi-deciduous and riparian forests in central-north South America. Contrary to most manakins, there is no evident sexual dichromatism in the species and little is known about its breeding biology. We studied the breeding biology of a colour-banded population of the species from August to December 2016 and from August to October 2017 in the Campus Florestal of the Universidade Federal de Viçosa, south-eastern Brazil. The breeding season extended from early September to late November. The species is promiscuous, with males exhibiting simple courtship displays (exploded leks) in individual arenas. The nest (n = 13) is a cup attached by its top lip between forked branches and is very simple, with a structural layer made with dry grass stems and heads, attached to the branch with spider silk. The outer and lining layers are absent. The mean clutch size was 1.8 eggs (n = 11), which are oval and pale coloured, covered with spots of different shades of brown, often concentrated in the larger pole. Mean egg length and width (± SD) were 21.0 ± 0.9 × 15.8 ± 0.7 mm (n = 14) and the mean weight was 2.8 ± 0.4 g (n = 10). The incubation period could not be estimated, but the nestling period was 15 days (n = 2). The simple percentage of successful nests was 15.4%, with 76.9% of the nests depredated and 7.7% abandoned. This is the first detailed study about the breeding biology of any Neopelma species, providing relevant data for the study of the evolution of life history strategies not only for the genus, but for the whole family Pipridae.