Forecasting regional house price inflation: a comparison between dynamic factor models and vector autoregressive models

This paper uses the dynamic factor model framework, which accommodates a large cross‐section of macroeconomic time series, for forecasting regional house price inflation. In this study, we forecast house price inflation for five metropolitan areas of South Africa using principal components obtained from 282 quarterly macroeconomic time series in the period 1980:1 to 2006:4. The results, based on the root mean square errors of one to four quarters ahead out‐of‐sample forecasts over the period 2001:1 to 2006:4 indicate that, in the majority of the cases, the Dynamic Factor Model statistically outperforms the vector autoregressive models, using both the classical and the Bayesian treatments. We also consider spatial and non‐spatial specifications. Our results indicate that macroeconomic fundamentals in forecasting house price inflation are important. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

COMPARISON OF TWO METHODS OF OPERATING THEATRE PLANNING： APPLICATION IN BELGIAN HOSPITAL

Operating Theatre is the centre of the hospital management＇s efforts. It constitutes the most expensive sector with more than 10% of the intended operating budget of the hospital. To reduce the costs while maintaining a good quality of care, one of the solutions is to improve the existent planning and scheduling methods by improving the services and surgical specialty coordination or finding the best estimation of surgical case durations. The other solution is to construct an effective surgical case plan and schedule. The operating theatre planning and scheduling is the two important steps, which aim to make a surgical case programming with an objective of obtaining a realizable and efficient surgical case schedule. This paper focuses on the first step, the operating theatre planning problem. Two planning methods are introduced and compared. Real data of a Belgian university hospital ＂Tivoli＂ are used for the experiments.     

Mutations in myosin heavy chain 11 cause a syndrome associating thoracic aortic aneurysm/aortic dissection and patent ductus arteriosus

We have recently described two kindreds presenting thoracic aortic aneurysm and/or aortic dissection (TAAD) and patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) and mapped the disease locus to 16p12.2-p13.13 (ref. 3). We now demonstrate that the disease is caused by mutations in the MYH11 gene affecting the C-terminal coiled-coil region of the smooth muscle myosin heavy chain, a specific contractile protein of smooth muscle cells (SMC). All individuals bearing the heterozygous mutations, even if asymptomatic, showed marked aortic stiffness. Examination of pathological aortas showed large areas of medial degeneration with very low SMC content. Abnormal immunological recognition of SM-MHC and the colocalization of wild-type and mutant rod proteins in SMC, in conjunction with differences in their coimmunoprecipitation capacities, strongly suggest a dominant-negative effect. Human MYH11 gene mutations provide the first example of a direct change in a specific SMC protein leading to an inherited arterial disease.     

Catalysis of protein folding by prolyl isomerase

Rates of protein folding reactions vary considerably. Some denatured proteins regain the native conformation within milliseconds or seconds, whereas others refold very slowly in the time range of minutes or hours. Varying folding rates are observed not only for different proteins, but can also be detected for single polypeptide species. This originates from the co-existence of fast- and slow-folding forms of the unfolded protein, which regain the native state with different rates. The proline hypothesis provides a plausible explanation for this heterogeneity. It assumes that the slow-folding molecules possess non-native isomers of peptide bonds between proline and another residue, and that crucial steps in the refolding of the slow-folding molecules are limited in rate by the slow reisomerization of such incorrect proline peptide bonds. Recently the enzyme peptidyl-prolyl cis-trans isomerase (PPIase) was discovered and purified from pig kidney. It catalyses efficiently the cis in equilibrium trans isomerization of proline imidic peptide bonds in oligopeptides. Here we show that it also catalyses slow steps in the refolding of a number of proteins of which fast- and slow-folding species have been observed and where it was suggested that proline isomerization was involved in slow refolding. The efficiency of catalysis depends on the accessibility for the isomerase of the particular proline peptide bonds in the refolding protein chain.     

Prevention of enteral radiocesium absorption by hexacyanoferrates(II) in piglets

The efficacy of different hexacyanoferrates(II) in preventing the enteral absorption of 134Cs was studied in piglets. As compared to the controls, oral application of 134Cs together with KFe[Fe(CN)6], NH4Fe[Fe(CN)6], or Fe4[Fe(CN)6]3 resulted in a strong reduction of the 134 Cs-uptake by more than 97%. The decrease in enteral absorption depends on the dose of administered hexacyanoferrate(II), whereas differences between the compounds under study were small. The biological half-life of 134Cs in non-hexacyanoferrate(II) treated piglets was 21.6 +/- 3.3 days (mean +/- SD).     

Plasticity in single neuron and circuit computations

Plasticity in neural circuits can result from alterations in synaptic strength or connectivity, as well as from changes in the excitability of the neurons themselves. To better understand the role of plasticity in the brain, we need to establish how brain circuits work and the kinds of computations that different circuit structures achieve. By linking theoretical and experimental studies, we are beginning to reveal the consequences of plasticity mechanisms for network dynamics, in both simple invertebrate circuits and the complex circuits of mammalian cerebral cortex.     

A heuristic model of creativity

Zusammenfassung Im Rahmen eines heuristischen Modells und unter dem Einfluss der psychoanaleptischen Drogc Psilocybin wird die regulierend-complementierende geistige Tätigkeit untersucht. Gesunde, junge Volontäre vermögen nach oraler Verabreichung von 10–12 mg Psilocybin gedruckte Texte zu lesen, obgleich der obere Teil jeder Zeile bis zu 74% unsichtbar ist.     

Dodecahedral space topology as an explanation for weak wide-angle temperature correlations in the cosmic microwave background

The current 'standard model' of cosmology posits an infinite flat universe forever expanding under the pressure of dark energy. First-year data from the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) confirm this model to spectacular precision on all but the largest scales. Temperature correlations across the microwave sky match expectations on angular scales narrower than 60 degrees but, contrary to predictions, vanish on scales wider than 60 degrees. Several explanations have been proposed. One natural approach questions the underlying geometry of space--namely, its curvature and topology. In an infinite flat space, waves from the Big Bang would fill the universe on all length scales. The observed lack of temperature correlations on scales beyond 60 degrees means that the broadest waves are missing, perhaps because space itself is not big enough to support them. Here we present a simple geometrical model of a finite space--the Poincaré dodecahedral space--which accounts for WMAP's observations with no fine-tuning required. The predicted density is Omega(0) approximately 1.013 > 1, and the model also predicts temperature correlations in matching circles on the sky.     

Notch1 functions as a tumor suppressor in mouse skin

Notch proteins are important in binary cell-fate decisions and inhibiting differentiation in many developmental systems, and aberrant Notch signaling is associated with tumorigenesis. The role of Notch signaling in mammalian skin is less well characterized and is mainly based on in vitro studies, which suggest that Notch signaling induces differentiation in mammalian skin. Conventional gene targeting is not applicable to establishing the role of Notch receptors or ligands in the skin because Notch1-/- embryos die during gestation. Therefore, we used a tissue-specific inducible gene-targeting approach to study the physiological role of the Notch1 receptor in the mouse epidermis and the corneal epithelium of adult mice. Unexpectedly, ablation of Notch1 results in epidermal and corneal hyperplasia followed by the development of skin tumors and facilitated chemical-induced skin carcinogenesis. Notch1 deficiency in skin and in primary keratinocytes results in increased and sustained expression of Gli2, causing the development of basal-cell carcinoma-like tumors. Furthermore, Notch1 inactivation in the epidermis results in derepressed beta-catenin signaling in cells that should normally undergo differentiation. Enhanced beta-catenin signaling can be reversed by re-introduction of a dominant active form of the Notch1 receptor. This leads to a reduction in the signaling-competent pool of beta-catenin, indicating that Notch1 can inhibit beta-catenin-mediated signaling. Our results indicate that Notch1 functions as a tumor-suppressor gene in mammalian skin.