A hybrid forecasting approach for piece‐wise stationary time series

We consider the problem of forecasting a stationary time series when there is an unknown mean break close to the forecast origin. Based on the intercept‐correction methods suggested by Clements and Hendry (1998) and Bewley (2003), a hybrid approach is introduced, where the break and break point are treated in a Bayesian fashion. The hyperparameters of the priors are determined by maximizing the marginal density of the data. The distributions of the proposed forecasts are derived. Different intercept‐correction methods are compared using simulation experiments. Our hybrid approach compares favorably with both the uncorrected and the intercept‐corrected forecasts. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

GABA-mimetic action of etomidate

Summary A comparison of antagonism by bicuculline or strychnine of the effects of GABA or etomidate on rat isolated superior cervical ganglia, frog isolated hemisected spinal cords and rat central neurones in vivo indicates that etomidate has GABA-mimetic actions.Acknowledgments. This work was supported by the Medical Research Council and etomidate was provided by Janssen Pharmaceutica.     

Hormonal manipulation of carrageenin-induced pyresis in rats

Summary The intensity of the hyperthermic response in rats promoted by subplantar injection of 1 mg of carrageenin is directly related to the irritant properties of the type of carrageenin. The overall pyretic response is more dramatic in female rats than in male rats. Subtle changes in the time-course hyperthermic profiles are seen after hormonal modifications.This work was supported by NIH, MBS research grant No. RR08111.