Forecasting key US macroeconomic variables with a factor‐augmented Qual VAR

In this paper, we first extract factors from a monthly dataset of 130 macroeconomic and financial variables. These extracted factors are then used to construct a factor‐augmented qualitative vector autoregressive (FA‐Qual VAR) model to forecast industrial production growth, inflation, the Federal funds rate, and the term spread based on a pseudo out‐of‐sample recursive forecasting exercise over an out‐of‐sample period of 1980:1 to 2014:12, using an in‐sample period of 1960:1 to 1979:12. Short‐, medium‐, and long‐run horizons of 1, 6, 12, and 24 months ahead are considered. The forecast from the FA‐Qual VAR is compared with that of a standard VAR model, a Qual VAR model, and a factor‐augmented VAR (FAVAR). In general, we observe that the FA‐Qual VAR tends to perform significantly better than the VAR, Qual VAR and FAVAR (barring some exceptions relative to the latter). In addition, we find that the Qual VARs are also well equipped in forecasting probability of recessions when compared to probit models.     

Mutations in the PCNA-binding domain of CDKN1C cause IMAGe syndrome

IMAGe syndrome (intrauterine growth restriction, metaphyseal dysplasia, adrenal hypoplasia congenita and genital anomalies) is an undergrowth developmental disorder with life-threatening consequences. An identity-by-descent analysis in a family with IMAGe syndrome identified a 17.2-Mb locus on chromosome 11p15 that segregated in the affected family members. Targeted exon array capture of the disease locus, followed by high-throughput genomic sequencing and validation by dideoxy sequencing, identified missense mutations in the imprinted gene CDKN1C (also known as P57KIP2) in two familial and four unrelated patients. A familial analysis showed an imprinted mode of inheritance in which only maternal transmission of the mutation resulted in IMAGe syndrome. CDKN1C inhibits cell-cycle progression, and we found that targeted expression of IMAGe-associated CDKN1C mutations in Drosophila caused severe eye growth defects compared to wild-type CDKN1C, suggesting a gain-of-function mechanism. All IMAGe-associated mutations clustered in the PCNA-binding domain of CDKN1C and resulted in loss of PCNA binding, distinguishing them from the mutations of CDKN1C that cause Beckwith-Wiedemann syndrome, an overgrowth syndrome.     

Genome-wide copy number variation study associates metabotropic glutamate receptor gene networks with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder

Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a common, heritable neuropsychiatric disorder of unknown etiology. We performed a whole-genome copy number variation (CNV) study on 1,013 cases with ADHD and 4,105 healthy children of European ancestry using 550,000 SNPs. We evaluated statistically significant findings in multiple independent cohorts, with a total of 2,493 cases with ADHD and 9,222 controls of European ancestry, using matched platforms. CNVs affecting metabotropic glutamate receptor genes were enriched across all cohorts (P = 2.1 × 10(-9)). We saw GRM5 (encoding glutamate receptor, metabotropic 5) deletions in ten cases and one control (P = 1.36 × 10(-6)). We saw GRM7 deletions in six cases, and we saw GRM8 deletions in eight cases and no controls. GRM1 was duplicated in eight cases. We experimentally validated the observed variants using quantitative RT-PCR. A gene network analysis showed that genes interacting with the genes in the GRM family are enriched for CNVs in ～10% of the cases (P = 4.38 × 10(-10)) after correction for occurrence in the controls. We identified rare recurrent CNVs affecting glutamatergic neurotransmission genes that were overrepresented in multiple ADHD cohorts.     

PNPLA1 mutations cause autosomal recessive congenital ichthyosis in golden retriever dogs and humans

Ichthyoses comprise a heterogeneous group of genodermatoses characterized by abnormal desquamation over the whole body, for which the genetic causes of several human forms remain unknown. We used a spontaneous dog model in the golden retriever breed, which is affected by a lamellar ichthyosis resembling human autosomal recessive congenital ichthyoses (ARCI), to carry out a genome-wide association study. We identified a homozygous insertion-deletion (indel) mutation in PNPLA1 that leads to a premature stop codon in all affected golden retriever dogs. We subsequently found one missense and one nonsense mutation in the catalytic domain of human PNPLA1 in six individuals with ARCI from two families. Further experiments highlighted the importance of PNPLA1 in the formation of the epidermal lipid barrier. This study identifies a new gene involved in human ichthyoses and provides insights into the localization and function of this yet uncharacterized member of the PNPLA protein family.     

Plovers breeding in the highlands of Jalisco, Aguascalientes, Zacatecas, and San Luis Potosí, central Mexico

From April to July 2008, we surveyed for breeding plovers at 32 sites in the semiarid highlands of Jalisco, Aguascalientes, Zacatecas, and San Luis Potosí, in the Central Mexican High Plateau. We documented evidence or presumption of breeding Snowy Plovers ( Charadrius alexandrinus ) at 3 sites, Killdeer ( C. vociferus ) at 15 sites, and Mountain Plovers ( C. montanus ) at 1 site. Our surveys showed that the region is important breeding ground for only the Killdeer. We documented an apparent breeding range extension of the Mountain Plover to slightly more than 200 km south of its previously known breeding range.     

Arthropod and plant communities as indicators of land rehabilitation effectiveness in a semiarid shrubsteppe

We describe a case study evaluating the ecological impact of Bromus tectorum L. (cheatgrass) invasion following fire disturbance and the effectiveness of revegetation as a means of rehabilitation in a degraded semiarid shrubsteppe system. The effectiveness of rehabilitation efforts was assessed relative to arthropod richness, vegetation and arthropod community composition, and ground-cover characteristics in 3 habitats: undisturbed, burned and weed infested ( B. tectorum ), and burned then rehabilitated with native and nonnative vegetation. Arthropods were collected in each habitat using pitfall traps. Differences in arthropod richness were compared using rarefaction curves. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling and nonparametric multivariate statistical procedures, including analysis of similarity and similarity percentage routines, were used to compare arthropod and vegetation community composition and ground-cover characteristics between habitats. Arthropod communities in the rehabilitated habitat were distinct from those observed in the undisturbed and weed-infested habitats. Rehabilitation in this study resulted in a shift toward conditions observed in an undisturbed habitat and perhaps is an intermediate step to complete restoration. Arthropod richness, arthropod and vegetation community composition, and ground-cover characteristics were all useful indicators but returned slightly different results. Assessing multiple variables yielded the most complete understanding of the habitats studied.     

Optimal temperatures for growth and upper thermal tolerance of juvenile northern leatherside chub

We examined optimal temperatures for growth and the upper thermal tolerance of juvenile northern leatherside chub ( Lepidomeda copei ). We conducted 2 experiments using the acclimated chronic-exposure method to estimate optimal temperature for growth of age-0 northern leatherside chub (range 12.8–28.3 °C). Upper thermal tolerance was estimated using the critical thermal maximum (CTM) and upper incipient lethal temperature (UILT) methods for fish acclimated at 15, 18, 23, and 28 °C. We also measured stream temperatures in Yellow Creek, Summit County, Utah, during July–August 2006 to compare our results to actual summer stream temperatures. Survival in growth tests was not significantly different between treatment temperatures in either experiment (P > 0.098). The optimal temperature for growth in the 1st trial estimated from the 2nd-order polynomial regression was 23.0 °C, falling outside the range of experimental temperatures (12.8–22.2 °C). The estimated optimal temperature for growth in the 2nd trial was 23.2 °C. In the upper thermal tolerance tests, juvenile northern leatherside chub had CTM values between 29.6 and 35.0 °C; CTM values increased as acclimation temperature increased. Upper incipient lethal temperatures (LT50) ranged from 26.5 to 30.2 °C, increasing with acclimation temperature. Summer stream temperatures in Yellow Creek had a lower mean (14.0–18.1 °C) than did the optimal temperature for growth determined in these studies, but these temperatures exhibited diel fluctuations as large as 15.7 °C.