Forecasting stock prices using a hierarchical Bayesian approach

The Ohlson model is evaluated using quarterly data from stocks in the Dow Jones Index. A hierarchical Bayesian approach is developed to simultaneously estimate the unknown coefficients in the time series regression model for each company by pooling information across firms. Both estimation and prediction are carried out by the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Our empirical results show that our forecast based on the hierarchical Bayes method is generally adequate for future prediction, and improves upon the classical method. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

掺入豆石的灌浆料在加固工程中的应用

以豆石含量为变化参数，设计了5种灌浆料的配合比，通过试验方法，研究了灌浆料的施工性能（包括坍落扩展度（SF）、T500流动时间和L型仪试验）和抗压强度。试验结果表明，豆石含量增加，灌浆料T500流动时间变短；而坍落度和扩展度（SF）变大；抗压强度降低。工程实例说明，掺入合适豆石的灌浆料能够满足工程应用的要求。     

基于模糊梯度投影法的混凝土泵车臂架运动仿真

混凝土泵车是一种大型工程设备,由于其臂架系统具有冗余自由度,因此对其运动进行规划具有很大实际意义。提出基于模糊算法的模糊梯度投影法,并应用其进行了具有2个冗余自由度的混凝土泵车臂架系统逆运动学问题的求解,进行了直线和圆弧轨迹浇注的仿真。结果表明在对给定的轨迹进行规划时可以减小末端轨迹误差,能够较好的求解混凝土泵车臂架的逆运动学问题。     

真假孔子与奇幻小说人物内涵之双重性

孔子对神话、寓言、传说的历史化和理性化,让小说生命元素之虚被遗弃,延缓了奇幻小说的诞生,但孔子在＂敬鬼神＂和＂敬天命＂中渗透出＂爱人＂的本质,为奇幻小说带来了＂人格＂属性。奇幻小说之所以为奇幻,不仅在于人物的＂人格＂元素,还在于人物的＂神格＂元素。从春秋到汉,被神化的孔子形象,为奇幻小说带来了生命之虚,同时也为奇幻小说注入了＂神格＂属性。     

Human judgments in New York state sales and use tax forecasting

Human judgments have become quite important in revenue forecasting processes. This paper centres on human judgments in New York state sales and use tax by examining the actual practices of information integration. Based on the social judgment theory (i.e., the lens model), a judgment analysis exercise was designed and administered to a person from each agency (the Division of the Budget, Assembly Ways and Means Committee Majority and Minority, and the Senate Finance Committee) to understand how information integration is processed among different agencies. The results of the judgment analysis exercise indicated that revenue forecasters put different weight on cues. And, in terms of relative and subjective weights, the cues were used differently, although they were presented with the same information. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

试论体育教学中的德育教育

论述了体育教学过程中进行德育教育的基本特征，基本方法和学生的表现，在传授知识，技能的同时，自然协调地，潜移默化地向学和渗透德育教育，在培养学勇于拼搏、顽强果断、吃苦耐劳及坚强毅力品质的同时，进一步引导学生增强民族自豪感，自尊心。培养学生良好的道德品质对于增强其体质，掌握好体育基本知识、技能、技巧也会起到积极的促进作用。     

中国农村劳动力流动因素分析——基于样本数据的分析研究

2012年,中央领导在不同场合多次强调城镇化战略在我国未来的经济发展和社会进步中的重要作用,引起了社会各界的高度重视.城镇化的重要一步就是农村人口特别是农村劳动力进入城市.通过对不同来源的湖北、河南近四百份调研数据进行计量分析,农村流动劳动力在进行择业决策的时候,他们的年龄因素、婚姻状况、现阶段的收入水平、文化程度等内在因素和农村劳动力还受到城市户籍政策、城市就业政策、城市医疗保障、城市社会保障、子女受教育环境等外在因素都会产生影响.在得出研究结论之后,从妥善引导农村劳动力流动的角度探索性的提出了一系列可能对城镇化建设带来正面作用的政策建议.     

Separation between modulator-dependent protein kinases I and II

The separation of modulator-dependent protein kinase I from modulator-dependent protein kinase II obtained from the lungs of sexually premature male mice was accomplished by Sephadex G-200 gel filtration. After preincubation of a mouse lung cytosol fraction with arginine-rich histone, theophylline, cyclic GMP and crude protein kinase modulator a cyclic GMP-dependent protein kinase activity peak present in a non-preincubated sample completely disappeared and was replaced by a late-eluted modulator-dependent protein kinase II peak. There was a difference in substrate specificity between modulator-dependent protein kinase I and modulator-dependent protein kinase II despite their similar dependence on crude protein kinase modulator or partially purified stimulatory protein kinase modulator for their maximal activities.     

电压电流电阻的自动测量——介绍HP9825A和SOLARTRON7065组成的自动测量系统

本文采用美国HP9825A计算机和英国SoLartron公司的7065数字电压表构成一个自动测量系统;实现对电压、电流、电阻和温度等非电量的自动测试。