Dynamic Model Averaging and CPI Inflation Forecasts: A Comparison between the Euro Area and the United States

The paper forecasts consumer price inflation in the euro area (EA) and in the USA between 1980:Q1 and 2012:Q4 based on a large set of predictors, with dynamic model averaging (DMA) and dynamic model selection (DMS). DMA/DMS allows not solely for coefficients to change over time, but also for changes in the entire forecasting model over time. DMA/DMS provides on average the best inflation forecasts with regard to alternative approaches (such as the random walk). DMS outperforms DMA. These results are robust for different sample periods and for various forecast horizons. The paper highlights common features between the USA and the EA. First, two groups of predictors forecast inflation: temporary fundamentals that have a frequent impact on inflation but only for short time periods; and persistent fundamentals whose switches are less frequent over time. Second, the importance of some variables (particularly international food commodity prices, house prices and oil prices) as predictors for consumer price index inflation increases when such variables experience large shocks. The paper also shows that significant differences prevail in the forecasting models between the USA and the EA. Such differences can be explained by the structure of these respective economies. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A genome-wide association study in Han Chinese identifies new susceptibility loci for ankylosing spondylitis

To identify susceptibility loci for ankylosing spondylitis, we performed a two-stage genome-wide association study in Han Chinese. In the discovery stage, we analyzed 1,356,350 autosomal SNPs in 1,837 individuals with ankylosing spondylitis and 4,231 controls; in the validation stage, we analyzed 30 suggestive SNPs in an additional 2,100 affected individuals and 3,496 controls. We identified two new susceptibility loci between EDIL3 and HAPLN1 at 5q14.3 (rs4552569; P = 8.77 × 10(-10)) and within ANO6 at 12q12 (rs17095830; P = 1.63 × 10(-8)). We also confirmed previously reported associations in Europeans within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) region (top SNP, rs13202464; P < 5 × 10(-324)) and at 2p15 (rs10865331; P = 1.98 × 10(-8)). We show that rs13202464 within the MHC region mainly represents the risk effect of HLA-B*27 variants (including HLA-B*2704, HLA-B*2705 and HLA-B*2715) in Chinese. The two newly discovered loci implicate genes related to bone formation and cartilage development, suggesting their potential involvement in the etiology of ankylosing spondylitis.     

Frequent mutations of chromatin remodeling genes in transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder

Transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) is the most common type of bladder cancer. Here we sequenced the exomes of nine individuals with TCC and screened all the somatically mutated genes in a prevalence set of 88 additional individuals with TCC with different tumor stages and grades. In our study, we discovered a variety of genes previously unknown to be mutated in TCC. Notably, we identified genetic aberrations of the chromatin remodeling genes (UTX, MLL-MLL3, CREBBP-EP300, NCOR1, ARID1A and CHD6) in 59% of our 97 subjects with TCC. Of these genes, we showed UTX to be altered substantially more frequently in tumors of low stages and grades, highlighting its potential role in the classification and diagnosis of bladder cancer. Our results provide an overview of the genetic basis of TCC and suggest that aberration of chromatin regulation might be a hallmark of bladder cancer.     

Fixed Point Theorems for φ-Probabilistic Contraction in Hausdorff Fuzzy Metric Spaces

In this paper,we discuss the common fixed point with respect to several self-mappings on fuzzy metric space.Recently many authors put forward some relevant comm...     

五味子有效成分保护心室重构的研究进展

五味子对心血管、免疫系统及CNS具有调节作用,阐述了五味子中有效成分木脂素和多糖保护心室重构的作用.     

A New Adaptive Formant Vocoder

A new type of vocoder system based upon formant analysis is presented in this paper. The LMS adaptive algorithm is used for tracking formants of speech signals. The results of computer simulation show that the new vocoder has better synthesized speech quality.     

炼油厂废水处理污泥热解制油技术研究

对炼油厂废水处理污泥进行了催化热解产油实验,考察了温度（170－300℃）和反应时间（0－90min)对产油率的影响。温度越高,产油率越高,在300℃时,产油率达54．6％,经60min反应接近平衡。讨论了系统质量与能量平衡。     

祛寒逐风合剂治 疗尢 王痹(类风湿性关节炎)的研究

祛寒逐风合剂是以1972年由甘肃武威出土的汉代医简中“伤寒逐风方”为基础方配制而成的中药制剂,供临床使用。方中有制附片、川椒、细辛、白术、川芎、制鳖甲等,以温经散寒为主,佐以祛风除湿、活血止痛、补益肝肾,尊《黄帝内经》中“寒者热之”、“治寒以热”之大法,主要用于治疗wang痹（类风湿性关节炎）之辩证为风寒湿阻者。几年来临床观察120例,其中治愈23例,好转95例,临床验证取得了满意疗效,与宝光牌风湿液治病该病作对照,其疗效结果经统计学处理,治疗组优于对照组（P＜0．01）,且该药对中医辩证为风寒湿阻之各种痹证,包括西医诊断之风湿性关节炎、类风湿性关节炎、强直性脊柱炎、增生性关节炎、各种腰腿痛等都有很好的疗效,有望成为治疗风湿病的一种有效药物。     

基于多目标离散粒子群的产品服务系统方案配置规则提取

为有效辅助工程师将顾客需求转化为产品服务系统方案,针对其技术特征,提出一种离散粒子群优化算法(DPSO)与帕累托(Pareto)结合的配置规则提取方法.该方法包括建立产品服务系统配置规则模型及构造Pareto-DPSO算法模型.Pareto-DPSO算法基于Sobol序列的频率初始化方法及离散化粒子更新方式,将连续粒子映射到十进制离散空间;并利用Pareto进行多目标下粒子优劣性评价,以获取非支配的最优规则集.以汽车产品服务系统方案配置设计为例,经与常规多目标粒子群算法及DPSO算法对比,验证了该方法对于解决多维空间内产品服务配置规则挖掘的可行性及有效性.