Forecast evaluation and improvement using theil's decomposition

Forecasters are concerned with the accuracy of a forecast and whether the forecast can be modified to yield an improved performance. Theil has proposed statistics to measure forecast performance and to identify components of forecast error. However, the most commonly used of Theil's statistics have been shown to have serious shortcomings. This paper discusses Theil's decomposition of forecast error into bias, regression and disturbance proportions. Examples using price expectations and new housing starts data are given to show how decomposition suggests a linear correction procedure that may improve forecast accuracy.     

TRPC6 is a glomerular slit diaphragm-associated channel required for normal renal function

Progressive kidney failure is a genetically and clinically heterogeneous group of disorders. Podocyte foot processes and the interposed glomerular slit diaphragm are essential components of the permeability barrier in the kidney. Mutations in genes encoding structural proteins of the podocyte lead to the development of proteinuria, resulting in progressive kidney failure and focal segmental glomerulosclerosis. Here, we show that the canonical transient receptor potential 6 (TRPC6) ion channel is expressed in podocytes and is a component of the glomerular slit diaphragm. We identified five families with autosomal dominant focal segmental glomerulosclerosis in which disease segregated with mutations in the gene TRPC6 on chromosome 11q. Two of the TRPC6 mutants had increased current amplitudes. These data show that TRPC6 channel activity at the slit diaphragm is essential for proper regulation of podocyte structure and function.