Risk reduction in a project portfolio

The positive impacts of managing projects as a portfolio are quantified by comparing the value of the integrated risk of a project portfolio and the aggregation of single project risks implemented separately. Firstly, the integrated risk is defined by proposing risky events based on set theory. Secondly, as projects interact with each other in a project portfolio, the integrated risk is evaluated by using a Bayesian network structure learning algorithm to construct an interdependent network of risks. Finally, the integrated risk of a practical case is assessed using this method, and the results show that the proposed method is an effective tool for calculating the extent of risk reduction of implementing a project portfolio and identifying the most risky project, so as to assist companies in making comprehensive decisions in the phase of portfolio selection and portfolio controlling.     

A DEA-TOPSIS method for multiple criteria decision analysis in emergency management

A hybrid approach of DEA (data envelopment analysis) and TOPSIS (technique for order performance (preference) by similarity to ideal solution) is proposed for multiple criteria decision analysis in emergency management. Two DEA-based optimization models are constructed to facilitate identifying parameter information regarding criterion weights and quantifying qualitative criteria in TOPSIS. An emergency management case study utilizing data from the Emergency Management Australia (EMA) Disasters Database is provided to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed analysis procedure.     

残缺互补判断矩阵排序方法

在残缺互补判断矩阵的加性一致性概念的基础上,首先对其他两种残缺互补判断矩阵排序方法进行改进,然后提出了残缺互补判断矩阵的最小方差法和二次规划法,为解决残缺互补判断矩阵排序问题提供了新的途径。理论分析和数值结果均表明:这些排序方法具有简洁、有效,且易于计算器或计算机上实施等优点。     

A Maturing of Systems Thinking? Evidence from Three Perspectives

This paper reviews trends in systems theory/thinking from the 1970s to the early 2000s. It proposes a maturation of the field based on certain conceptual and methodological advances that have sought to liberate systems thinking from earlier strictures. An edited dialogue among three prominent systems thinkers from different systems schools—Merrelyn Emery, Bob Flood, and Eric Wolstenholme—provides evidence. Similarities and differences are identified, complementarities among the schools are derived and analyzed, and trajectories for future research are indicated.     

A hierarchical multiple criteria model for eliciting relative preferences in conflict situations

A multiple criteria decision analysis(MCDA) approach is designed for capturing the relative preference information of a decision maker involved in a conflict.More specifically,an MCDA approach based on the outranking method,ELECTRE III,is employed for ranking states or possible scenarios in the conflict from most to least preferred,where ties are allowed,for a decision maker according to his or her value system.To demonstrate how this preference elicitation methodology can be conveniently implemented in practice within the framework of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution,it is applied to a real world water supply crisis which occurred in the town of North Battleford,located in the Canadian province of Saskatchewan.     

三维水声传播建模及并行算法研究

宽带声传播、匹配场定位、水下环境仿真等技术的发展对水声传播提出了越来越高的要求,如何开发快速准确并与实际海洋环境条件相吻合的三维声传播模型,并充分利用现代计算机技术实现声传播的快速计算已成为水声技术的一个重要研究方向。基于波束位移射线简正波(BDRM)理论,将射线-简正波方法和简正波-抛物方程方法结合起来,建立三维射线-简正波-抛物方程模型,同时为满足三维声场计算的时间需求,设计了射线-简正波-抛物方程模型并行算法,在高性能集群系统上的测试分析结果表明,设计的并行算法具有较高的并行计算效率。     

The Third Track of the Open-Systems-Thinking School: An Application of Domain Theory to New Zealand Ports

The Open-Systems Thinking (OST) school identified with Emery and Trist is situated as an important but underutilized approach in systems thinking. The main features of OST are described, including four "tracks" along which OST has developed. The third track, which focuses on interorganizational domains, is considered in detail. It is then applied to a case concerning the complex social dynamics of and in port domains in New Zealand. This exercise enables us to illuminate some lacunae in previous representations of the port domain research, to assess OST's third track regarding its relevance for systemic practice, and to help to bring OST to the table with other systems approaches that are all vying for the attention of researchers, practicing managers, students, and consultants.     

Decentralized Bezout Identity and a Parametrization of Decentralized Controllers for Singular Systems

1　 IntroductionConsider a singular decentralized control system of the formEx(t) =Ax(t) ∑Ni=1Biui(t)yi =Cix(t) ,i∈ N ={ 1 ,2 ,… ,N}(1 )where x(t)∈ Rn is the state vector,ui(t)∈ Rmi and yi(t)∈ Rpi are respectively the localcontrol input and measure outputvectors of the ith control channel.The matrix E may besingular,i.e.,rank(E) 相似文献   

Conflict analysis approaches for investigating attitudes and misperceptions in the War of 1812

Formal systems engineering approaches to modeling misperceptions and attitudes are employed within the framework of the graph model for conflict resolution to systematically study the War of 1812 between the United States of America and Great Britain in order to provide enhanced insights into the causes of the war. More specifically, relational definitions for preferences, movements and stability concepts are defined for describing the attitudes and associated behavior of decision makers involved in a conflict. To capture misperceptions of decision makers in the War of 1812, attitudes are studied within the structure of a hypergame. Combining attitudes and misperceptions within the paradigm of the graph model furnishes the flexible analytical tool which demonstrates that misunderstanding of attitudes by Great Britain and the United States may have contributed to the outbreak of this nasty war.