Stratified prokaryote network in the oxic-anoxic transition of a deep-sea halocline

The chemical composition of the Bannock basin has been studied in some detail. We recently showed that unusual microbial populations, including a new division of Archaea (MSBL1), inhabit the NaCl-rich hypersaline brine. High salinities tend to reduce biodiversity, but when brines come into contact with fresher water the natural haloclines formed frequently contain gradients of other chemicals, including permutations of electron donors and acceptors, that may enhance microbial diversity, activity and biogeochemical cycling. Here we report a 2.5-m-thick chemocline with a steep NaCl gradient at 3.3 km within the water column betweeen Bannock anoxic hypersaline brine and overlying sea water. The chemocline supports some of the most biomass-rich and active microbial communities in the deep sea, dominated by Bacteria rather than Archaea, and including four major new divisions of Bacteria. Significantly higher metabolic activities were measured in the chemocline than in the overlying sea water and underlying brine; functional analyses indicate that a range of biological processes is likely to occur in the chemocline. Many prokaryotic taxa, including the phylogenetically new groups, were confined to defined salinities, and collectively formed a diverse, sharply stratified, deep-sea ecosystem with sufficient biomass to potentially contribute to organic geological deposits.     

Forecasting time series with long memory and level shifts

It is well known that some economic time series can be described by models which allow for either long memory or for occasional level shifts. In this paper we propose to examine the relative merits of these models by introducing a new model, which jointly captures the two features. We discuss representation and estimation. Using simulations, we demonstrate its forecasting ability, relative to the one‐feature models, both in terms of point forecasts and interval forecasts. We illustrate the model for daily S&P500 volatility. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Periodically integrated subset autoregressions for dutch industrial production and money stock

The univariate quarterly Dutch series of industrial production and money stock are both modelled with a periodically integrated subset autoregression (PISA). This model for a non-stationary series allows the lag orders, the values of the parameters and the cyclical patterns to vary over the seasons. The PISA models are found by applying a general-to-simple specification strategy, which deals with non-stationarity and periodicity simultaneously. It is found that the two series show a common asymmetric cyclical behaviour. This paper further proposes a test for periodicity in the errors, with which it is argued that a non-periodic model for the industrial production and money stock is misspecified and that seasonal adjustment does not remove periodicity in the autocorrelation function.     

Eight glacial cycles from an Antarctic ice core

The Antarctic Vostok ice core provided compelling evidence of the nature of climate, and of climate feedbacks, over the past 420,000 years. Marine records suggest that the amplitude of climate variability was smaller before that time, but such records are often poorly resolved. Moreover, it is not possible to infer the abundance of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from marine records. Here we report the recovery of a deep ice core from Dome C, Antarctica, that provides a climate record for the past 740,000 years. For the four most recent glacial cycles, the data agree well with the record from Vostok. The earlier period, between 740,000 and 430,000 years ago, was characterized by less pronounced warmth in interglacial periods in Antarctica, but a higher proportion of each cycle was spent in the warm mode. The transition from glacial to interglacial conditions about 430,000 years ago (Termination V) resembles the transition into the present interglacial period in terms of the magnitude of change in temperatures and greenhouse gases, but there are significant differences in the patterns of change. The interglacial stage following Termination V was exceptionally long--28,000 years compared to, for example, the 12,000 years recorded so far in the present interglacial period. Given the similarities between this earlier warm period and today, our results may imply that without human intervention, a climate similar to the present one would extend well into the future.     

X-linked inheritance of Fanconi anemia complementation group B

Fanconi anemia is an autosomal recessive syndrome characterized by diverse clinical symptoms, hypersensitivity to DNA crosslinking agents, chromosomal instability and susceptibility to cancer. Fanconi anemia has at least 11 complementation groups (A, B, C, D1, D2, E, F, G, I, J, L); the genes mutated in 8 of these have been identified. The gene BRCA2 was suggested to underlie complementation group B, but the evidence is inconclusive. Here we show that the protein defective in individuals with Fanconi anemia belonging to complementation group B is an essential component of the nuclear protein 'core complex' responsible for monoubiquitination of FANCD2, a key event in the DNA-damage response pathway associated with Fanconi anemia and BRCA. Unexpectedly, the gene encoding this protein, FANCB, is localized at Xp22.31 and subject to X-chromosome inactivation. X-linked inheritance has important consequences for genetic counseling of families with Fanconi anemia belonging to complementation group B. Its presence as a single active copy and essentiality for a functional Fanconi anemia-BRCA pathway make FANCB a potentially vulnerable component of the cellular machinery that maintains genomic integrity.     

Haematopoietic stem cells do not transdifferentiate into cardiac myocytes in myocardial infarcts

The mammalian heart has a very limited regenerative capacity and, hence, heals by scar formation. Recent reports suggest that haematopoietic stem cells can transdifferentiate into unexpected phenotypes such as skeletal muscle, hepatocytes, epithelial cells, neurons, endothelial cells and cardiomyocytes, in response to tissue injury or placement in a new environment. Furthermore, transplanted human hearts contain myocytes derived from extra-cardiac progenitor cells, which may have originated from bone marrow. Although most studies suggest that transdifferentiation is extremely rare under physiological conditions, extensive regeneration of myocardial infarcts was reported recently after direct stem cell injection, prompting several clinical trials. Here, we used both cardiomyocyte-restricted and ubiquitously expressed reporter transgenes to track the fate of haematopoietic stem cells after 145 transplants into normal and injured adult mouse hearts. No transdifferentiation into cardiomyocytes was detectable when using these genetic techniques to follow cell fate, and stem-cell-engrafted hearts showed no overt increase in cardiomyocytes compared to sham-engrafted hearts. These results indicate that haematopoietic stem cells do not readily acquire a cardiac phenotype, and raise a cautionary note for clinical studies of infarct repair.     

Carbon solubility in olivine and the mode of carbon storage in the Earth's mantle

The total amount of carbon in the atmosphere, oceans and other near-surface reservoirs is thought to be negligible compared to that stored in the Earth's mantle. Although the mode of carbon storage in the mantle is largely unknown, observations of microbubbles on dislocations in minerals from mantle xenoliths has led to the suggestion that carbon may be soluble in silicates at high pressure. Here we report measurements of carbon solubility in olivine, the major constituent of the upper mantle, at pressures up to 3.5 GPa. We have found that, contrary to previous expectations, carbon solubility in olivine is exceedingly low--of the order of 0.1 to 1 parts per million by weight. Together with similar data for pyroxenes, garnet and spinel, we interpret this to imply that most carbon must be present as a separate phase in the deeper parts of the upper mantle, probably as a carbonate phase. Large-scale volcanic eruptions tapping such a carbonate-bearing mantle reservoir might therefore rapidly transfer large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, consistent with models that link global mass extinctions to flood basalt eruptions via a sudden increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.     

Combining expert‐adjusted forecasts

It is well known that a combination of model‐based forecasts can improve upon each of the individual constituent forecasts. Most forecasts available in practice are, however, not purely based on econometric models but entail adjustments, where experts with domain‐specific knowledge modify the original model forecasts. There is much evidence that expert‐adjusted forecasts do not necessarily improve the pure model‐based forecasts. In this paper we show, however, that combined expert‐adjusted model forecasts can improve on combined model forecasts, in the case when the individual expert‐adjusted forecasts are not better than their associated model‐based forecasts. We discuss various implications of this finding.