Stimulated influences of Lake Agassiz on the climate of central North America 11,000 years ago

Eleven thousand years ago, large lakes existed in central and eastern North America along the margin of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The large-scale North American climate at this time has been simulated with atmospheric general circulation models, but these relatively coarse global models do not resolve potentially important features of the mesoscale circulation that arise from interactions among the atmosphere, ice sheet, and proglacial lakes. Here we present simulations of the climate of central and eastern North America 11,000 years ago with a high-resolution, regional climate model nested within a general circulation model. The simulated climate is in general agreement with that inferred from palaeoecological evidence. Our experiments indicate that through mesoscale atmospheric feedbacks, the annual delivery of moisture to the Laurentide Ice Sheet was diminished at times of a large, cold Lake Agassiz relative to periods of lower lake stands. The resulting changes in the mass balance of the ice sheet may have contributed to fluctuations of the ice margin, thus affecting the routing of fresh water to the North Atlantic Ocean. A retreating ice margin during periods of high lake level may have opened an outlet for discharge of Lake Agassiz into the North Atlantic. A subsequent advance of the ice margin due to greater moisture delivery associated with a low lake level could have dammed the outlet, thereby reducing discharge to the North Atlantic. These variations may have been decisive in causing the Younger Dryas cold event.     

Evolution of genes and genomes on the Drosophila phylogeny

Comparative analysis of multiple genomes in a phylogenetic framework dramatically improves the precision and sensitivity of evolutionary inference, producing more robust results than single-genome analyses can provide. The genomes of 12 Drosophila species, ten of which are presented here for the first time (sechellia, simulans, yakuba, erecta, ananassae, persimilis, willistoni, mojavensis, virilis and grimshawi), illustrate how rates and patterns of sequence divergence across taxa can illuminate evolutionary processes on a genomic scale. These genome sequences augment the formidable genetic tools that have made Drosophila melanogaster a pre-eminent model for animal genetics, and will further catalyse fundamental research on mechanisms of development, cell biology, genetics, disease, neurobiology, behaviour, physiology and evolution. Despite remarkable similarities among these Drosophila species, we identified many putatively non-neutral changes in protein-coding genes, non-coding RNA genes, and cis-regulatory regions. These may prove to underlie differences in the ecology and behaviour of these diverse species.     

Probable heat capacity signature of the supersolid transition

Liquid 4He enters the superfluid state and flows without friction below 2.176 K. Thin liquid films adsorbed on solid substrates undergo the same transformation, although at a lower temperature. When the substrate is subjected to oscillatory motion a portion of the film, known as the superfluid fraction, decouples from the oscillation. A similar phenomenon has been observed in solid 4He, in which a fraction of the solid seems to decouple from the motion of the surrounding lattice. Although this observation has been replicated in various laboratories, no thermodynamic signature of the possible supersolid transition has been seen. Here we report the finding of a heat capacity peak that coincides with the onset of mass decoupling. This complementary experimental evidence supports the existence of a genuine transition between the normal solid and supersolid phases of 4He.     

Finite‐sample properties of tests for equal forecast accuracy

This study examines the small‐sample properties of some commonly used tests of equal forecast accuracy. The paper considers the size and power of different tests and the performance of different heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation‐consistent (HAC) variance estimators. Monte Carlo experiments show that the tests all suffer some size distortions in small samples, with the distortions varying across tests. The experiments also show that, adjusted for size distortions, the tests have broadly similar power, although some small differences exist. Finally, the experiments indicate that the size and power performances of HAC estimators vary with the features of the data. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting an aggregate of cointegrated disaggregates

This study examines the problem of forecasting an aggregate of cointegrated disaggregates. It first establishes conditions under which forecasts of an aggregate variable obtained from a disaggregate VECM will be equal to those from an aggregate, univariate time series model, and develops a simple procedure for testing those conditions. The paper then uses Monte Carlo simulations to show, for a finite sample, that the proposed test has good size and power properties and that whether a model satisfies the aggregation conditions is closely related to out‐of‐sample forecast performance. The paper then shows that ignoring cointegration and specifying the disaggregate model as a VAR in differences can significantly affect analyses of aggregation, with the VAR‐based test for aggregation possibly leading to faulty inference and the differenced VAR forecasts potentially understating the benefits of disaggregate information. Finally, analysis of an empirical problem confirms the basic results. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Role of gut microbiota in aging-related health decline: insights from invertebrate models

Studies in mammals, including humans, have reported age-related changes in microbiota dynamics. A major challenge, however, is to dissect the cause and effect relationships involved. Invertebrate model organisms such as the fruit fly Drosophila and the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans have been invaluable in studies of the biological mechanisms of aging. Indeed, studies in flies and worms have resulted in the identification of a number of interventions that can slow aging and prolong life span. In this review, we discuss recent work using invertebrate models to provide insight into the interplay between microbiota dynamics, intestinal homeostasis during aging and life span determination. An emerging theme from these studies is that the microbiota contributes to cellular and physiological changes in the aging intestine and, in some cases, age-related shifts in microbiota dynamics can drive health decline in aged animals.     

Regulatory changes underlying expression differences within and between Drosophila species

Differences in gene expression are an important source of phenotypic variation, and can be caused by changes in cis and/or trans regulation. cis-regulatory variants alter allele-specific expression, whereas trans-regulatory variants influence expression of both alleles in a diploid cell. Because of this difference, we hypothesize that natural selection may favor one type of change over the other. Here, we investigate contributions of cis- and trans-regulatory changes to variable intra- and interspecific gene expression using four strains of Drosophila melanogaster, three strains of D. simulans and a total of 78 genes. We show that cis-regulatory changes account for a greater proportion of the expression differences observed between rather than within species. These data are inconsistent with a neutral model assuming equal probabilities of fixation for cis- and trans-regulatory polymorphisms, suggesting that natural selection influences the molecular mechanisms underlying divergent gene expression. Specifically, cis-regulatory changes seem to accumulate preferentially over time.