Understanding and predicting sovereign debt rescheduling: a comparison of the areas under receiver operating characteristic curves

This paper extends the existing literature on empirical research in the field of sovereign debt. To the authors' knowledge, only one study in the area of sovereign debt has used a variety of statistical methodologies to test the reliability of their predictions and to compare their performance against one another. However, those comparisons across models have been made in terms of different probability cut‐off points and mean squared errors. Moreover, the issue of interpretability has not been addressed in terms of interactions among explanatory variables with their correspondent debt rescheduling threshold level. The areas under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves are used to compare the discrimination power of statistical models. This paper tests logit, MARS, tree‐based and neural network models. Analyses of the relative importance of variables and deviance were done. All of the models rank the previous payment history as the most important explanatory variable. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The mammalian NudC-like genes: a family with functions other than regulating nuclear distribution

Nuclear distribution gene C homolog (NudC) is a highly conserved gene. It has been identified in different species from fungi to mammals. The high degree of conservation, in special in the nudC domain, suggests that they are genes with essential functions. Most of the identified genes in the family have been implicated in cell division through the regulation of cytoplasmic dynein. As for mammalian genes, human NUDC has been implicated in the migration and proliferation of tumor cells and has therefore been considered a possible therapeutic target. There is evidence suggesting that mammalian NudC is also implicated in the regulation of the inflammatory response and in thrombopoiesis. The presence of these other functions not related to the interaction with molecular motors agrees with that these genes and their products are larger in size than their microbial orthologous, indicating that they have evolved to convey additional features.     

Capturing complex, non-linear team behaviours during competitive football performance

This study investigated changes in the complexity (magnitude and structure of variability) of the collective behaviours of association football teams during competitive performance. Raw positional data from an entire competitive match between two professional teams were obtained with the ProZone® tracking system. Five compound positional variables were used to investigate the collective patterns of performance of each team including: surface area, stretch index, team length, team width, and geometrical centre. Analyses involve the coefficient of variation (%CV) and approximate entropy (ApEn), as well as the linear association between both parameters. Collective measures successfully captured the idiosyncratic behaviours of each team and their variations across the six time periods of the match. Key events such as goals scored and game breaks (such as half time and full time) seemed to influence the collective patterns of performance. While ApEn values significantly decreased during each half, the %CV increased. Teams seem to become more regular and predictable, but with increased magnitudes of variation in their organisational shape over the natural course of a match.     

Predictability of Equity Models

In this study, we verify the existence of predictability in the Brazilian equity market. Unlike other studies in the same sense, which evaluate original series for each stock, we evaluate synthetic series created on the basis of linear models of stocks. Following the approach of Burgess (Computational Finance, 1999; 99, 297–312), we use the ‘stepwise regression’ model for the formation of models of each stock. We then use the variance ratio profile together with a Monte Carlo simulation for the selection of models with potential predictability using data from 1 April 1999 to 30 December 2003. Unlike the approach of Burgess, we carry out White's Reality Check (Econometrica, 2000; 68, 1097–1126) in order to verify the existence of positive returns for the period outside the sample from 2 January 2004 to 28 August 2007. We use the strategies proposed by Sullivan, Timmermann and White (Journal of Finance, 1999; 54, 1647–1691) and Hsu and Kuan (Journal of Financial Econometrics, 2005; 3, 606–628) amounting to 26,410 simulated strategies. Finally, using the bootstrap methodology, with 1000 simulations, we find strong evidence of predictability in the models, including transaction costs. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Genome-wide association study identifies loci influencing concentrations of liver enzymes in plasma

Concentrations of liver enzymes in plasma are widely used as indicators of liver disease. We carried out a genome-wide association study in 61,089 individuals, identifying 42 loci associated with concentrations of liver enzymes in plasma, of which 32 are new associations (P = 10(-8) to P = 10(-190)). We used functional genomic approaches including metabonomic profiling and gene expression analyses to identify probable candidate genes at these regions. We identified 69 candidate genes, including genes involved in biliary transport (ATP8B1 and ABCB11), glucose, carbohydrate and lipid metabolism (FADS1, FADS2, GCKR, JMJD1C, HNF1A, MLXIPL, PNPLA3, PPP1R3B, SLC2A2 and TRIB1), glycoprotein biosynthesis and cell surface glycobiology (ABO, ASGR1, FUT2, GPLD1 and ST3GAL4), inflammation and immunity (CD276, CDH6, GCKR, HNF1A, HPR, ITGA1, RORA and STAT4) and glutathione metabolism (GSTT1, GSTT2 and GGT), as well as several genes of uncertain or unknown function (including ABHD12, EFHD1, EFNA1, EPHA2, MICAL3 and ZNF827). Our results provide new insight into genetic mechanisms and pathways influencing markers of liver function.     

Imperfect optics may be the eye's defence against chromatic blur

The optics of the eye cause different wavelengths of light to be differentially focused at the retina. This phenomenon is due to longitudinal chromatic aberration, a wavelength-dependent change in refractive power. Retinal image quality may consequently vary for the different classes of cone photoreceptors, cells tuned to absorb bands of different wavelengths. For instance, it has been assumed that when the eye is focused for mid-spectral wavelengths near the peak sensitivities of long- (L) and middle- (M) wavelength-sensitive cones, short-wavelength (bluish) light is so blurred that it cannot contribute to and may even impair spatial vision. These optical effects have been proposed to explain the function of the macular pigment, which selectively absorbs short-wavelength light, and the sparsity of short-wavelength-sensitive (S) cones. However, such explanations have ignored the effect of monochromatic wave aberrations present in real eyes. Here we show that, when these effects are taken into account, short wavelengths are not as blurred as previously thought, that the potential image quality for S cones is comparable to that for L and M cones, and that macular pigment has no significant function in improving the retinal image.     

Metal-insulator transition in chains with correlated disorder

According to Bloch's theorem, electronic wavefunctions in perfectly ordered crystals are extended, which implies that the probability of finding an electron is the same over the entire crystal. Such extended states can lead to metallic behaviour. But when disorder is introduced in the crystal, electron states can become localized, and the system can undergo a metal-insulator transition (also known as an Anderson transition). Here we theoretically investigate the effect on the physical properties of the electron wavefunctions of introducing long-range correlations in the disorder in one-dimensional binary solids, and find a correlation-induced metal-insulator transition. We perform numerical simulations using a one-dimensional tight-binding model, and find a threshold value for the exponent characterizing the long-range correlations of the system. Above this threshold, and in the thermodynamic limit, the system behaves as a conductor within a broad energy band; below threshold, the system behaves as an insulator. We discuss the possible relevance of this result for electronic transport in DNA, which displays long-range correlations and has recently been reported to be a one-dimensional disordered conductor.     

Whole-genome sequencing identifies recurrent mutations in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia

Chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL), the most frequent leukaemia in adults in Western countries, is a heterogeneous disease with variable clinical presentation and evolution. Two major molecular subtypes can be distinguished, characterized respectively by a high or low number of somatic hypermutations in the variable region of immunoglobulin genes. The molecular changes leading to the pathogenesis of the disease are still poorly understood. Here we performed whole-genome sequencing of four cases of CLL and identified 46 somatic mutations that potentially affect gene function. Further analysis of these mutations in 363 patients with CLL identified four genes that are recurrently mutated: notch 1 (NOTCH1), exportin 1 (XPO1), myeloid differentiation primary response gene 88 (MYD88) and kelch-like 6 (KLHL6). Mutations in MYD88 and KLHL6 are predominant in cases of CLL with mutated immunoglobulin genes, whereas NOTCH1 and XPO1 mutations are mainly detected in patients with unmutated immunoglobulins. The patterns of somatic mutation, supported by functional and clinical analyses, strongly indicate that the recurrent NOTCH1, MYD88 and XPO1 mutations are oncogenic changes that contribute to the clinical evolution of the disease. To our knowledge, this is the first comprehensive analysis of CLL combining whole-genome sequencing with clinical characteristics and clinical outcomes. It highlights the usefulness of this approach for the identification of clinically relevant mutations in cancer.