分形理论在吉林西部干旱指数预测中的应用

干旱指数反映了气候的干旱程度,干旱指数的年际变化能够体现一个地区气候的演变.吉林西部降水不足,蒸发量大,干旱程度逐渐加剧.应用分形理论,首先进行了吉林西部1951-2003年共53 a干旱指数的R/ S分析,计算出Hurst系数,结果表明吉林西部的干旱指数在时间序列上具有显著的自相似性.在此基础上,应用连续变维分形模型预测了2004-2023年的干旱指数,结果表明该区气候将继续向干旱的趋势发展.     

A comparison of conditional predictive ability of implied volatility and realized measures in forecasting volatility

In a conditional predictive ability test framework, we investigate whether market factors influence the relative conditional predictive ability of realized measures (RMs) and implied volatility (IV), which is able to examine the asynchronism in their forecasting accuracy, and further analyze their unconditional forecasting performance for volatility forecast. Our results show that the asynchronism can be detected significantly and is strongly related to certain market factors, and the comparison between RMs and IV on average forecast performance is more efficient than previous studies. Finally, we use the factors to extend the empirical similarity (ES) approach for combination of forecasts derived from RMs and IV.     

硬聚氯乙烯(RPVC)板贮槽渗漏的综合防治

现代湿法炼铜常用硬聚氯乙烯(RPVC)板作为防腐结构材料,本文对硬聚氯乙烯板贮槽渗漏问题进行了分析,提出了相应的防治措施。     

基于滑模估计器和卡尔曼滤波的PMSM速度估计

针对永磁同步电机(PMSM)无传感器的控制问题,提出了一种结合滑模估计器和扩展卡尔曼滤波(EKF)两种方法优点的混合估计器。混合估计器解决了滑模估计器对于反电动势具有较大"畸变"的电机速度估计效果差的缺点。混合估计器建立了一个3阶EKF滤波器,把反电动势高次谐波分量作为系统和测量噪声处理。降阶后的EKF参数调节变得比传统的EKF估计器相对容易很多,在反电动势有"畸变"单纯滑模估计器估计效果很差时,估计效果依然很好。对滑模估计器、传统EKF估计器和混合控制器三种估计效果做了比较,阐明了混合估计器的优缺点。     

Interval Time Series Analysis with an Application to the Sterling-Dollar Exchange Rate

Traditional econometrics has long employed ＂points＂ to measure time series data. In real life situations, however, it suffers the loss of volatility information, since many variables are bounded by intervals in a given period. To address this issue, this paper provides a new methodology for interval time series analysis. The concept of ＂interval stochastic process＂ is formally defined as a counterpart of ＂stochastic process＂ in point-based econometrics. The authors introduce the concepts of interval stationarity, interval statistics （including interval mean, interval variance, etc.） and propose an interval linear model to investigate the dynamic relationships between interval processes. A new interval-based optimization approach for estimation is proposed, and corresponding evaluation criteria are derived. To demonstrate that the new interval method provides valid results, an empirical example on the sterling-dollar exchange rate is presented.     

《一捧尘土》中的象征意义

《一捧尘土》是伊夫林.沃的代表作之一,作品中蕴含了犀利的社会批评,表现了作者对现代人和现代社会的彻底的绝望。伊夫林.沃在这部作品中灵活地运用了象征手法,将抽象事务具体化,丰富了小说的内涵和意义。     

A positive-temperature-coefficient electrode with thermal protection mechanism for rechargeable lithium batteries

A new positive-temperature-coefficient(PTC) material was prepared simply by blending of conductive Super P carbon black(CB) with insulating poly(methyl methacrylate)(PMMA) polymer matrix,which was empolyed as a coating layer on the aluminium foil substrate to fabricate a sandwiched Al/PTC/LiCoO2 cathode.The experimental results from cyclic voltammetry,charge-discharge measurements and impedance spectroscopy demonstrated that the PTC electrode has a normal electrochemical performance at ambient temperature,but shows an enormous increase in the resistance at the temperature range of 80?120℃.This PTC behavior greatly restrains the reaction current passing through the electrode at elevated temperatures,capable of acting as a self-actuating safety mechanism to prevent the battery from thermal runaway.     

一类保费随机收取的多险种风险模型

文章对经典风险模型进行了推广,考虑了多险种的离散风险模型.特别地,对保单达到收取的保费是一个随机变量进行了研究,通过鞅方法分析了获利过程的性质,得到了调节系数方程及相应的破产概率的上限,最后给出了初始资本为u≥0的破产概率的精确表达式.     

蘸粘式光纤液体分析仪

提出了一种能够同时测量液体的浓度、折射率、表面张力、接触角和粘滞系数等物理化学参数的光纤液体分析仪,介绍了蘸粘式光纤液体分析仪的工作原理和光纤探头的结构设计,给出了在表面张力的作用下光纤探头周围的液体形状变化过程.分析了接收到的光强信号的变化规律,并对纯水、饮料、酒精和油等液体样品进行测试分析,实验结果表明蘸粘式光纤液体分析技术可以用于对不同液体的检测分析.     

关于教育资源媒体需求的调查与远程数据分析

本文探讨了教育资源媒体的种类和发展趋势,用数据分析方法研究了教育资源媒体在教学过程中的需求,提出教育资源媒体建设的思考与建议,供学习者、教育工作者及教育管理者参考。