基于网络关注度的大宗商品市场预测研究

随着大宗商品市场化的加快和电子信息技术的快速发展,以互联网为载体的网络信息将方便快捷地传递到市场及市场参与者.本文从海量开源数据出发,利用搜索引擎平台,提取核心信息构建网络关注度指标,并提出了基于网络关注度的大宗商品价格预测模型.通过引入具有不同核函数的支持向量回归模型,分别建立了针对单个市场(原油、铜以及玉米)的网络关注度预测模型和综合考虑市场间联动性的多市场网络关注度预测模型.实证结果表明,网络关注度对于市场价格的变动有显著的格兰杰因果关系,引入网络关注度指标和相关市场信息能显著提高预测精度.     

A DEA-TOPSIS method for multiple criteria decision analysis in emergency management

A hybrid approach of DEA (data envelopment analysis) and TOPSIS (technique for order performance (preference) by similarity to ideal solution) is proposed for multiple criteria decision analysis in emergency management. Two DEA-based optimization models are constructed to facilitate identifying parameter information regarding criterion weights and quantifying qualitative criteria in TOPSIS. An emergency management case study utilizing data from the Emergency Management Australia (EMA) Disasters Database is provided to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed analysis procedure.     

Adaptive broadband beamformer for nonuniform linear array based on second order cone programming

Adaptive broadband beamforming is a key issue in array applications. The adaptive broadband beamformer with tapped delay line (TDL) structure for nonuniform linear array (NLA) is designed according to the rule of minimizing the beamformer's output power while keeping the distortionless response (DR) in the direction of desired signal and keeping the constant beamwidth (CB) with the prescribed sidelobe level over the whole operating band. This kind of beamforming problem can be solved with the interior-point method after being converted to the form of standard second order cone programming (SOCP). The computer simulations are presented which illustrate the effectiveness of our bearaformer.     

DDFS spurious signals due to amplitude quantization in absence of phase-accumulator truncation

Spurious signals in direct digital frequency synthesizers (DDFSs) are partly caused by amplitude quantization and phase truncation, which affect their application to many wireless telecommunication systems. Thee signals are deterministic and periodic in the time domain, so they appear as line spectra in the frequency domain. Two types of spurious signals due to amplitude quantization are exactly formulated and compared in thetime and frequency domains respectively. Then the frequency spectra and power levels of the spurious signals due to amplitude quantization in the absence of phase-accumulator truncation are emphatically analyzed, and the effects of the DDFS parameter variations on the spurious signals are thoroughly studied by computer simulation. And several important conclusions are derived which can provide theoretical support for parameter choice and spurious performance evaluation in the application of DDFSs.     

A multiyear lags input-holding-output model on education with excluding idle capital

This paper develops a multi-year lag Input-Holding-Output (I-H-O) Model on education with exclusion of the idle capital to address the reasonable education structure in support of a sustainable development strategy in China. First, the model considers the multiyear lag of human capital because the lag time of human capital is even longer and more important than that of fixed capital. Second, it considers the idle capital resulting from the output decline in education, for example, student decrease in primary school. The new generalized Leonitief dynamic inverse is deduced to obtain a positive solution on education when output declines as well as expands. After compiling the 2000 I-H-O table on education, the authors adopt modifications-by-step method to treat nonlinear coefficients, and calculate education scale, the requirement of human capital, and education expenditure from 2005 to 2020. It is found that structural imbalance of human capital is a serious problem for Chinese economic development. This research was supporting by the Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 60874119, Innovation Funds of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Research Fund for Humanities and Social Sciences in colleges under Grant No. 06BJY102, Key project in Jiangxi Soft Science Project under Grant No. [2006]188, Jiangxi Research Fund for Humanities and Social Sciences in colleges under Grant No. 03JJ01, and Henan Research Fund for Humanities and Social Sciences in colleges under Grant No. 2008-ZD-002.     

基于多策略搜索的出租车服务仿真模型

为更细致、精确地描述出租车服务规律,提出一种依据历史信息和路网供求信息模拟出租车空车搜索行为的动态仿真模型,出租车根据以往的驾驶经验和对路网供求信息的掌握程度决定空车时如何寻找新乘客.仿真结果表明,向出租车提供路网供求信息不能有效提高出租车的空车效率,但有助于缩短乘客平均等待时间;依据平均历史信息的搜索策略能够有效提高空车效率.模型有助于城市交通管理部门更有效地规划和管理出租车运营系统,为其决策提供参考依据.     

Global robust optimal sliding mode control for uncertain affine nonlinear systems

The problem of robustifying linear quadratic regulators (LQRs) for a class of uncertain affine nonlinear systems is considered. First, the exact linearization technique is used to transform an uncertain nonlinear system into a linear one and an optimal LQR is designed for the corresponding nominal system. Then, based on the integral sliding mode, a design approach to robustifying the optimal regulator is studied. As a result, the system exhibits global robustness to uncertainties and the ideal sliding mode dynamics is the same as that of the optimal LQR for the nominal system. A global robust optimal sliding mode control (GROSMC) is realized. Finally, a numerical simulation is demonstrated to show the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed algorithm compared with the conventional optimal LQR.     

High efficient moving object extraction and classification in traffic video surveillance

Moving object extraction and classification are important problems in automated video surveillance systems. A background model based on region segmentation is proposed. An adaptive single Gaussian background model is used in the stable region with gradual changes, and a nonparametric model is used in the variable region with jumping changes. A generalized agglomerative scheme is used to merge the pixels in the variable region and fill in the small interspaces. A two-threshold sequential algorithmic scheme is used to group the background samples of the variable region into distinct Gaussian distributions to accelerate the kernel density computation speed of the nonparametric model. In the feature-based object classification phase, the surveillance scene is first partitioned according to the road boundaries of different traffic directions and then re-segmented according to their scene localities. The method improves the discriminability of the features in each partition. AdaBoost method is applied to evaluate the relative importance of the features in each partition respectively and distinguish whether an object is a vehicle, a single human, a human group, or a bike. Experimental results show that the proposed method achieves higher performance in comparison with the existing method.     

基于非线性内电位构造函数的抗伪状态联想记忆

针对传统Hopfield神经网络在联想记忆中存在的大量伪状态,设计出一种以非线性内电位函数构造为核心的抗伪状态方案,以取代传统的Hebb规则及其外积法,建立了一种抗伪状态的联想记忆网络(ASS-SSNN),并通过吸引域的变化研究抗伪状态方案的正确性和有效性.仿真结果表明:ASS-SSNN比采用传统Hebb规则及其外积法的Hopfield联想记忆网络(HNN)在容错性上更优,记忆状态的吸引域明显增大,存储容量也有所增加.     

无线自组织通信中基于前导符号的定时同步

传统的基于自相关的和基于互相关的定时同步算法具有相关峰的旁瓣较宽或对载波频率偏移(carrier frequency offset, CFO)敏感的问题,均无法满足无线自组织通信系统对快速准确的定时同步的需求。针对这一问题,提出了一种新的基于改进互相关的定时同步算法,通过将一个长的相关器拆分为两个较短子相关器的乘积,使度量函数的主峰更加尖锐、次峰更低,理论分析了算法的抗频偏性和计算复杂度。对所提算法和传统互相关算法的蒙特卡罗仿真结果表明,在复杂度相当的前提下,所提算法在检测准确率上具有1.1 dB的性能增益,且对频偏的鲁棒性较好。